Saturday, August 23, 2008

Thanks For Being With Us














IS MDS BACK? Shota Rustavely in 12th Century Said.. Free Translation from Georgian.

"As long as it is lions CUB it does not matter if it is male or female".

Yes, this genius from 12 century was already hinting , indirectly ( he could not do it otherwise), that Man and Woman are equal (he had to add the animal context, lest be suspect of modernity, while he was hinting that Tamar the ruler of Georgian Empire was a women, love for whom he secretly carried to his grave, buried in Jerusalem) was just as good as any man could have been as a ruler of the EMPIRE.

So, why is that important for us?. Well, we still need to live up to that equality Shota was talking about, but it maybe happening in MDS world. This SISTER MDS is, actually , doing better ( please do not want to jinx this one also) than the Brother that was doing so well just couple months ago and degraded( temporarily I hope).



31 comments:

John said...

Boris,

thanx

old john

boris said...

Dear John,
Thanks
and Good Trading

sharon said...

Dear Boris

Good morning and have a great week.

Sharon

sharon said...

-

boris said...

Dear Sharon,
Thanks
You too
GOod Trading

sharon said...

Dear Boris

Most analyst and investor in the market predict that this crisis will be with us at least 1-2 years ahead. You wrote in your blog even more pessimistic outlook – 2012. Therefore, I wonder what an investor should do in this upcoming years period in case he might needsthe money during the period. Buy gold? Buy index bonds? Buy short ETFs? Bet on stock? It looks like ETF on indices are not the solution in a bear market.

Appreciate your point of view

Sharon

boris said...

Dear Sharon,
As you know we have sample asset allocation table in the sliding window.

I think this is still the best a hosehold in the age of 45 or higher should have.

The allocation table can be adjusted for a younger person.
The stock allocation can increase and so could GOLD + ENERGY at the expense of Bonds and Cash.

There is no portfolio that fits all sizes, like there is no sutie that suites me and SHAQUIL the same way(:-, or the shoes(:-

In any case, You are doing something with readjusting your portfolio by allocating CORE metals+Energy holdings.

The stock names I gave you recently over the main posts here are great ENERGY plays with incredible attractive dividends.

It is well known fact that One will find it hard to make money by trading assets frequently.

The main money is made by making ASSET allocation and readjusting as the times go.

For example, How many DOW units does and OUNCE of GOLD buys ( I am sure many people do not ask this question) is extremely important to my way of thinking. It forces to compare two assets. Historically the ration as been 1 to 43 ( early 2000 we were 43) now we are about 16-17. So, what does that tell us. It tells us that we could go to 1(HUH) or we could go to three( STILL HUH) or we could go to 5(still respectable). That means one better allocate some more to GOLD than to DOW. As simple as that.

Now ask a question how many barrels of oil does and ounce of GOLD buy, same story historically GOLD is undervalued.


Has anybody been listening when I screem "buy GLD-USO spread".

I am not sure. But, without getting into the theory of asset allocation ( and the way I approach to it) I would say that this where it is.

By the same way one can think other (re)allocations.

What do I own in stocks ( ration between small verus large caps for example).


All of these questions:

1) make one a good investor, because it forces to think of historical relationships between things

2) It leads to the better ASSET allocation.

I see only few people complaining that I have not updated the asset charts. People should be breaking my doors down for that.

That is the most important aspect of INVESTING ( even trading)

Buy the way I am in the middle of updateing the GROUPTATION.

There is also another question about allocation GROWTH/DIVIDEN or PRICE growth versus DIVIDEND growth. What do you prefer.

To my way of thinking in this environement I will chose the DIVIDENT GROWTH over PRICE APPRECIATION potential handily( Yes, you already know I am not overly bearish in a shorter term, but I am bearish into 2011-2012).


YOu see without thinking about these issues you need to be one of a kind trader( short/swing) to make it and very few will do it and fewer will do it big way. Believe me.

I would prefer to make all my readers investors, but teach them trading , so that they know better times to pick up the assets they need to go into.

That is what I prefer.
I hope everybody is listening.
I will teach you best trading tricks, but can not teach you trading. Trading is learned privately after grabbing ideas. Just like Physics teacher was teaching all of my friends the same way. I learned more. WHY! because I worked at it. He genius boris working. Yes I work(ed).

There is no genius Boris. There is working Boris that appears genius to others. Remember what EINSTEIN said. Genius is 90% persperation and 10% inspiration.

Yes. He was right. At least in my case(:-

So, to come back, I really respect all my readers and subscribers. I want them to be very succesful, but I can not give it to them. They need to work very hard at the ides I throw here from time to time and understand that I do not BS. I give Ideas that are truly important. I am not CNBC and/or Bloomberg and/or FOX.

I earn my money now and in the future and it all depends on how hard my readers/subsribers want to work with me, after me.

So, in any case, I really appreciate the question. I answered it as if you posed a different question. Because part of my answer is to make all understand what questions I think are improtant and what are not.

From 1968 to 1982 Stocks market has gone nowhere in terms of DOW. Down 37% in absolute terms and down 80% inpurchasing power!!!!!!!

Yes, everybody thinks 70s were not that bad. they were as bad as 30s, because in 30s Dollar remained strong. In 70s like now it has declined.

So, what made the money???????????
Dividend and sitting tight has made money or, at least, lost much less in purchasing power than DOW did.

These are the lessons I want everybody to learn.
Asset allocations include Currency allocations as well. That is why I talk so much about currencies. Some services talk about stocks all the time having no Idea what happens to currencies. Currencies are where it is my friends. I give more about currencies FREE than most of services give for thousands of Dollars/PESOS(:-

One can not be sure where absolute bottom is ( BORIS NOTWITHSTANDING(: - ) So, one needs to adopt the Dollar averaging into assets where ones goals are.

I hope this was worht it. This is the biggest rant I gave on this subject in a while.

Good Trading Dear Sharon

sharon said...

Dear Boris in 3 words.

THNAX THANX THANX

for wonderfull lesson.

I am going to study the assets aloocation, and you know me. if there are questions to be ask they will.

thank you dear boris.

tim9lives said...

Thank you Boris,,,great reply to question of asset classes.
I also want to thank you for Grouptation update you are working on,,,,I love that,,and was wondering about it recently,,,,,but actually thought my computer was malfunctioning,,,which it does quite often.
One more thing Boris,,,I do want to thank you for the education and concentrating with the currencies.
I must admit,,,even though I have spent over 20 years investing,,,it has only been in the last 4 years that I have studied about currencies.
They are the most important thing about investing IMO.
And you site is the best for learning the dynamics of currencies,,,YOU are a great teacher Boris.
Thanks again,,,we love you man !
Tim

boris said...

Dear Tim,
Thank you.

I struggled for years, how could I put together all the disjointed facts. It has never made sense. Never! That is until I started to understand how the currencies work. From there it became easier, not easy, just easier, because it never is easy my Dear Friend and Readers.

But Yes, when I was able to put the Currency issues in a right frame of thinking other things came somewhat easier.

I admit, the currency talk is not just a quirk for me that I feel obligated to give. It is the lifeblood of my perspective on everything geopolitical in the world and economics.

I said and I will repate. If you can give me one parameter and say that is it Boris you get nothing more, I would ask that to be the Dollar chart(:-

That is how important, at least in my mind, is where the currency is. That make sense as it makes it possible to guess where the interest rates are going and once you know those things, curreny and interest rates, it is very hard to make big investment mistakes.

Notice I did not say, you become genius, no, just you become a bit more aware where the dead bodies are and avoid them(:-, that is all.

Thanks for you confidence and I do my work for the love of it more than anything else, even as I have to exist somehow in thi material world beyond my intellectual desires.

THanks Dear Tim and I commend you for understanding the importance of Currencies. I notice from your comments that you have the desire and knowledge to adress the political events and that is good, because the truth in geopolitics is what leads you directly to CURRENCIES. FOR it is the currenices that will lead you to the truth in GEOPLOTICS and ECONOMICS at the end.

Good Trading

John said...

Boris,

Some great questions and answers.; as usual on this board.

old john

boris said...

Dear John
Good Weekend to you
Gettring ready to battle the world
tomorrow ha(:-

Love you my Dear Friend.
Good Trading

John said...

Boris,

Always ready with you.

old john

boris said...

Well Dear John,
That is just an honor coming from a man that really knows thing or two about fight, be it real or financial!

Good Trading

John said...

Boris,

thanx

old john

tim9lives said...

Thank you again Boris,,,,for confirming my thoughts on currencies and the linking of politics,,,,yes,,,those are my interests and I am trying to learn,,:)
While we are talking about learning,,,I am curious as to your thoughts on some technical reading I am looking at. The TA is my weekness,,,among the many,,as I know I am still a rookie,,,LOL
I was wondering what you think of W.D. Gann's books and writings.
I have stumbled across some of his books and articles which mentioned his techniques,,,,and thinking reading some of his books.
I noticed he discusses pressure points and cycles,,,and was curious if you have any comments about Gann,,,or that matter,,,any other books which may be helpful.
As I said,,,,I have just recently begun to study TA,,,and I use the word study,,,very loosely.
Thanks again.

boris said...

Dear Tim,
All knowledge is important. At the end thought it is you own personal filter that needs to make a decision on every trade and it will be the decisive factor. Markets change and systems change and tools change and to a great extent we and our own understanding of markets change. At the end you and I are alone with the trigger to pull and that is all matters. The road to succesfull pulls is via many unsuccesful trys ( sorry there is no other way). Frankly, I did not read a single GANNS book, because I realised that it is too hard to get into somebodies mind. Instead what I have tried is to learn what others think ( PERCEPION ) about what is important from GANNS work. Amazing ha?

I learn from what people do not what anybody else intended with their own tools, because the latter matters most.

So, I have absorbed tailes of other people about GANN and obviously cornerstone of his must have been ( if he admits or not ) the GOLDEN ratio and certainly have my ways of using it. I also absorbed the idea that GANN ( again if admiting or not) used the planetary cycles and ratios to base his trades on. And I certainly absorbed the idea that to become good in the markets all one needs is to COUNT. Yes good old count that we are thougth in kindergarden. Like he believed in decenial seasonality and seasonalities associated with planetary cycles, such the cycles of slower stars, like URANUS and JUPITER and NEFTUNE etc. They have the longer term trend influences, versus the agile start ( moon, mercury mars having more short term influences on the market). Frankly, I do not follow those cycles deliberately. I just figured out few cycles that work for me and constructed the predictive tools from there, such as the YBR and others. At the end I really think that what I do is completely mine, it has a signature of Boris and belongs to me and only I can react to it the way I do , becasue i have grown with it and it has grown with me. I can not directly tell anymore where am using what. I know and you all see the tools I use and they are often totally propriteray , like pressure charts, and sometimes the are the mixture of the knowledge acquired.

One more cardinal principle I learned from GANN's followers is that the best way to enter the trade is after the "perceived"( never know exatly) bottom or or top and change of direction followed by a retracement back to the old high/low , to be the safes bet to place to initiate a trade. In some sense this can be mathermatically expressed as diminishing momentum, but his contribution , I guess, was that he stated that retracements of GANNS proportions are important, such as 3/5th and 7/8 th and in general portions given in 1/8, 2/8=1/4, 2/4=1/2, 3/4, 3/5th etc. I guess he was deviding the distance of correction in portions of 0.125 of the whole length. So, he could get the 8 ratios each with spacing of 0.125 giving at the end 8*0.125= 1 whole.

He also had something called a square 9, which different people interpret diffent ways. I really never became fan of it even though at some point tryed different approches. Then there are GANN angles etc. which, Dear Klaatu seems to be using succesfully. I do not use it really.

What I use heavily is FIBOS, APS, PRESSURE charts and ASSET charts, everything you see here.

I really got away from popular things, with the tacit acknoledgment that all the things that are public are good to know for knowing how to stick it to public. For really making money , I use my signature trading.
Which at the end is more of a pattern recognition ( after many years watching charts one devlops that).

You see this is why I think that trading is work. Main work is absorbing the history of the markets and mapping the patterns in ones brain to recognise when similar moves develop.
Good Trading

tim9lives said...

Thank you again for your insights Boris,,,and what you say makes sense.
If it is too popular,,,then everyone does it,,,and then it no longer works.
And like you say,,,all knowledge is useful,,,whether you use it,,,to trade,,,or maybe use it to make sure you don't do the trade.
Yes,,,this is work,,,and because it is such a challenge,,it keeps us interested.
If it was easy,,,I'd get bored,,,and probably quit. I guess that is why I do like this kind of work.
Thank you again- Tim

אנטי-סופיטליסט said...

Dear Boris,
I have 2 interesting areas on my
2X1 lines this week measured off of last Monday's High and Wed.'s low.
They intersect on Tuesday,Aug.26th.+/- 1 day.

Also there are some other noteworthy points:
On Monday the 2X1 line down from the May High comes in at about 1302.(Last Monday's high was 1302.70 on
the SPU).
Also the 2X1 line up from the July low meets on Wednesday at the 1361 (Last Wed. low was 1361.0)
I'm hoping to get a confirmation from the MDS to increase my odds.
Thanks for all the the thought provoking commments this weekend and Good Trading ahead to all.
Klaatu

boris said...

Dear Tim,
Thanks
Good Trading

boris said...

Dear Klaatu,
Thanks a lot for your thoughts.
I guess you probably meant 1261 for the bottom last week.

Thanks a lot and Good Trading to you

אנטי-סופיטליסט said...

Dear Boris,
1261 it is.
Klaatu

lagscrew said...

SPX - Fear?

July '07 SPX 1500 $VIX 15
SPX dropped 125 pts in 4 weeks

Oct '07 SPX 1575 $VIX 17
SPX dropped 175 pts in 6 weeks

Dec '07 SPX 1525 $VIX 18
SPX dropped 230 pts in 6 weeks

May '08 SPX 1440 $VIX 17
SPX dropped 240 pts in 8 weeks

Aug '08 SPX 1300 $VIX 19 (and dropping)

Conclusions:

if the SPX rallies up a few modest points from here, and $VIX falls below 18, look out below.

lagscrew said...

Gold commercials are now short 130K contracts. The last time they were short (only) 130K contracts gold went from $700 to $1,000 in 6 months.

Silver commercials are now short 47K contracts. The last time they were short (only) 47K contracts silver went from $14 to $21 in 3 months.

boris said...

Dear Lag,
Thank you for your very instightful content.

I really love all the guys/girls on this site. They either have very interesting piercing questions or incredibly clever info.

No wonder people come to this site. With this kind of integrity and intelligence and honesty, we are doing well and I predict we will do even better.

I am so glad we have the quality paticipants all over.

Keep up the good work ANTI-SOPITALISTS!

Good Trading

lagscrew said...

Writer is Ted Butler, not familiar with his work. Not really familiar with many authors works...

These facts speak for themselves. Here are the facts. As of July 1, 2008, two U.S. banks were short 6,199 contracts of COMEX silver (30,995,000 ounces). As of August 5, 2008, two U.S. banks were short 33,805 contracts of COMEX silver (169,025,000 ounces), an increase of more than five-fold. This is the largest such position by U.S. banks I can find in the data, ever. Between July 14 and August 15th, the price of COMEX silver declined from a peak high of $19.55 (basis September) to a low of $12.22 for a decline of 38%.

John said...

Cubs Win

old john

John said...

Lagscrew,

This is my completely novice opinion but after perusing many boards this weekend I have come to this conclusion. Everyone who seems to have had some success is short or ready to go short. I think that the market will try to drive all the weak shorts out monday and/ or tuesday and then proceed with your scenario. Just my opinion.

old john

lagscrew said...

John thats right---from here I just keep adding shorts and if we end up in the 1320's Ill be fully loaded to the hilt

John said...

Lagscrew.

Being a Borisite, I will wait for the signal. The few times I went out on my own, I had my head handed to me.

thanx for everything

old john

sharon said...

this forum is full of "numbers and connections" expert - thank you LAG,John, Tim, Klaatu for sharing your knowledge