Friday, August 08, 2008

Thanks for being with us


Good Trading Dear Readers, Loooooong week!
There was no Bear Market, ever in last 110 year of ( my data) where DOw did not reach THE FAHAP before the Bear Was over. Sorry Bulls, but the FAHAP is at 9800!!!!!!!!!
That is what I said in response to Dear John's question inside Comments. Now, you know that I can not write correct? So, It should say THE FALAP not FAHAP , because There was no bear market ever complete without reaching FIRST ANNUAL LOW ATTRACTION POINT. OK and what is the bear market. That is a market that fell more than 20%. So, all market failures of more than 20% , have at some point met with the FALAP and so far it did not. FALAP is at 9800 for DOW and 1070 for SPX.
As the famous American Joke says: You can pay me now or you can pay me later! While I am not 100% if the market has put the bottom for this year, I am sure that this low will be broken next 2-3 years and will reach the FALAP of that year.

9 comments:

John said...

Boris,

Good evening for you.

If you had to make a bet - say like roulette- which way would you bet? black =up red = down

:)

old john
Go Cubs

boris said...

Dear John,
There are times when that question is very hard to answer.

But one must(:-

Ok, I would Give the short side benefit of the doubt starting around 12-14 August. 2-3 days after the SELL signals on the BEASTS. If that works and we break below 1234 then I would stay with it. If that does not, I would try to collect the shorts and go long at the most opportune time. These decisions are all coming fast and furious and we will have to make it or not make it ( as an investor and market average investor). Now, I do not think this market is a last train to hop or it is all over. In fact, I am more confident 2011-12 being lower than today than I am about next month being lower than today.

I will give one secret I have discovered just last night.
There was no Bear Market, ever in last 110 year of ( my data) where DOw did not reach THE FAHAP before the Bear Was over. Sorry Bulls, but the FAHAP is at 9800!!!!!!!!!

So, PAY ME NOW OR PAY ME LATER?
Good Trading

John said...

Boris,

thanx, appreciated as always

old john

Muthu said...

Dear Boris,
Is it possible for you to send the YBR dates for August and September to my email ID. A lot of folks have 11th and 12th as possible turn dates.

I do not see how long folks can fool themselves into buying equities when things are contracting all around.

Also with the PC Ratio so skewed towards calls, I think the big money will turn things down this week to prevent them from paying up. This was very evident last time around when so many puts were in the money and the market was pinned to 1260.

Regards,
Muthu

lagscrew said...

My stuff showing we are back up at the top again here. pc#, isee, and trin arnt quite where I like them tho.

boris said...

Dear Lag,
Yes, I see the same thing.
We probably need couple days of bit up/sideways to get it right(:-

Good Trading

lagscrew said...

Tuesday also coincides with the end of the SEC ban on naked short selling.

tim9lives said...

Dear Boris,,,we all know the science is here now,,,,and IMO,,,that's why the crooks that are in this Admin are in office,,,we have a Texas oil man and a Wyoming coal mana running the country,,,Invading the middle East for more oil.
When the people get fed up and demand a better government,,,then we will finally see some real headway towards alternatives,,,like solar,,,wind,,,and all the other which will break this insanity

boris said...

Dear Tim,
The sciense is there is fine to say. The alternatives are there, the only problem is not all think what happned in early 80s then too ( WOW) remember, the alternative energy was hot ( remember new ly minted proffessor Braverman from RUssia, emiger to Israel working on geothermal ) yes it woks. It all died, the reason is that as soon as the real viable alternative shows up OIL goes down where the alternative is no mor alternative that is viable.

You se the Chicken and Egg Problem.

So, the viability is in the EYE of beholder.

I totally agree about Croocks. No argument there(:-

But beyond manipulation there is a real business too and viability problem keeps people pooring BILLIONS and Trillions necessary, in INFRASTRUCTURE for alternatives.

Good Trading