Monday, August 25, 2008

attraction points(Apoints)

1279 1277 1273 1268 spx 1289 1291 1294 1299

10:12 ET, well, was this all ANTIDOLLAR could do for today? Could be, could very well be. Remember though, this week maybe the first time in few weeks where AntiDollar has a fighting chance for starting formation of bottom. Not the bottom but bottom.

11:32 ET, this move in stock market, especially the depth of the move lower, was not really expected today , even as I said the 26+-2 days which covers today. It was more hope that 26-27 will do the job. It still could. But this underscores the fact that when "in No mans Land" ( According to Dear John) you try to stay out of it. I say "when in doubt but out".

11:39 ET, At this time it seems to be all YEN in play and if it stops at 4th it could help the stock market start rally.

12:42 ET, YEN is approached the fifthDLAP from the lower side(HUH). If it can penetrate into the APS it could again restart the stock market. If it fails around 109.17 then we could see a really bad day in the stock market today.
heading higher( lower in quote) again. Stock market could tank today. This is EE
12:45 ET, YEN breaks fifth upside from bottom.

12:48 ET, Yen Approach the fourth 109.30, market not reacting yet.
12:51 ET, SILVER , GOLD unable to get any traction here and while the USO is up a bit the stocks look lethargic.
12:54 ET, YEN rejected at fourth and RIE
my Dear Friends. If it breaks 1259, and then 1947, all pretence of "all is fine" will melt in no time. And bearish alternative into 16th of September will turn out into a slow moving nightmare.

If/when 1259 break , need to start looking for entry points. Does not have to be today. It could be tomorrow, does not matter.

13:05 ET, Notice though that Dollar is , coming back, slowly but surely? That would be more in line with my first/preferred scenario as discussed with Dear James.
13:07 ET, YEN getting screwed breaks fourth, approaching thirdDLAP, what a fake this could be!
13:10 ET, YEN could go to first DLAP from below , that is where the important moving averages cross too. Is 109.55 coming up?
Stock Market is not very responsive at this point though it stopped looking suicidal













Do we see the GHOST OF THE PAST, FAKE OF THE YEAR, EVERYBODY REMEMBERS THAT? just search here in the search Box. This could be the third FAKE OF THE YEAR. We name them for three STOOGES, Bernanke, Paulsen, Cox

14:08 ET, unless we recover towards the end of the day the pattern here would have nailed another disaster in making for the markets.

14:25 ET, Dear INVESTOR, I will , absent the recovery in the stock indices towards the close, lighten up by 5-10% on the stock Portfolio portion of the Assets. The only time then I would purchase it back will be either as announced or when the market goes back up above today's high, after the close of today.

15:08 ET, barring the miracle, this market exhibits all the signs of one going for suicide. Market had all the reasons to go higher today. PCRATIO was fine and looking down and Sell Pressure was not high and the Momentum was indicating that the 50% retrace and 100% ABC projection of the base of July 16th will produce higher high around 1333. Yet the market chose the obvious ( only if we look at the intermediate pressure chart) to go down as prescribed by the elevated AverageBuyPressure Oscillator. Sooner or later that pressure curve must come down to the natural buy zone. Market chose SOONER.

44 comments:

John said...

Boris,

Got it

thanx

old john

John said...

Lagscrew,

Nice play for your short from friday

old john

אנטי-סופיטליסט said...

Boris,

Did you send out any call for anti-dollar for subscribers lately? If so, I have not received it.

Is anti-dollar still too weak to form bottom yet or dollar index is simply too strong to go ballistic?

Thanks

James

boris said...

Dear Jason,
I think we are in the critical area here. The easy money on the ANTIDOLLAR and Dollar has been made. Now there is time for caution even as I think and told the whole world that Dollar may show some more surprising strength into mid Sept. I said this for so long that I do not even care to remember, but Do not expect the rocket of 10% in 3 weeks like before we got here.

So in that context, it would be touch and feel and only very nimble maybe able to make money on a daily bases, if we are right about mid Sept for high in Dollar Index.

Good Trading

boris said...

By the way , No there was no update really beyond the fact that I said the things I said above for ages. So, nothing to add at this juncture.

Also, please see the updated Turn dates in the texts of the messages I send( those come from YBR), and they seem to , at this point be in sync with some other cycles that I follow.

So, nothing to add. Just the same info

Good Trading

bob said...

Boris,
Please comment on the asset rotation charts for energy and also for the pipeline. Looks to me like the jaws are ready to open and chew up the "shorts".

boris said...

Dear Bob,
I agree, I think Energy, looks promising. Looks like the complex wants to base here. I would be careful, but it is so appeitising so to speak.

Yes the Jaws are getting open are not they. And when you think about it the energy stocks fell, did not at all make any deep new lows.

Interesting ha?

Good Observation Bob.
Nevertheless approach it with care, just like you would do with the real Allegator(:-

Good Trading

lagscrew said...

sold skf and 1/2 twm

lagscrew said...

John

I sold some as the dark side may do something soon

lagscrew said...

Boris

I have some UNG and SLV to unload if we ever pop back up-- Sounds like you think its time for the pop?

THX lag

lagscrew said...

sold srs

boris said...

Dear Lag,
I will watch and give you signal.
I sold some on AM pop.
And bought some SLV back, these being more of a core position that I can fiddle a bit around.

I will let you know.
Actually 13.30 few minutes ago may have nbeen a good place. Still could do it and if I am wrong buy at 6-7cents higher.

Good Trading

lagscrew said...

sold last 1/2 twm---shorts are gone--lots of remodel in home so short on time

lagscrew said...

thx-Boris

lagscrew said...

Dear Boris

I was talking about a bigger pop as Im under water a long way on those two.

they are somewhat of a core position to but I have seen some charting where we could head to 82 dollar oil and much less on silver and gold (deflation)

sharon said...

Dear Boris

BOI did it again. no good sign for dollar-shekel.

Sharon

sharon said...

-

boris said...

Dear Lag,
I hear you.

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear Sharon,
What did they do this time?

Good Trading

John said...

Boris,

I was just going to post about the yen-- faster than me.

old john

boris said...

Dear John,
Thanks , Please do whenever you feel like
GOod Trading\

Hopper said...

Hi Boris,

As John put it before the beast has spoken. Still holding skf, for a bit longer. The vix seems to be leading this one.

boris said...

Dear Hopper,
Finally, VIX is reacting to things ha?

Thanks for reporting

Good Trading

אנטי-סופיטליסט said...

Boris,

Stock falls big even after good housing data. There could be something really surprising brewing somewhere, may be oil, Russian, or Iran nuclear.

Also, Yen is making rounding bottom just as GBP was making rounding top before crashing. Will YEN simply crash up? I know you have been talking about Yen crashing down for a while.

regards


James

John said...

Yen turned again

boris said...

Dear James,
The Yen crash down is, I think coming, Pattern still supports that notion, but if it goes up in price over 2-3% then the crash scenario would have changed and that scenario looks more scary for the stocks market

That would mean that first the stock market will crash , while YEN meltup goes on and then YEN crash will come with a delay of 20-30 trading days from here. Not in 10-15 I am still hanging on.

Good Trading

John said...

Boris,

that 109.31 seems to hold back everything.

old john

אנטי-סופיטליסט said...

Boris,

Let's wait until around 4pm for US government Plunge Protection team to come in and prop up stock market to look good so that Mccain can get elected. If they can not stop the fall, then something in sesmic scale could happen soon.

Regards

James

Blaine said...

CNBC makes me laugh :)

Blaine said...

Bill Griffith just called the top in gold. Because the U.S. Mint is rationing gold coins. He says the public is panic buying gold coins.

boris said...

Dear Blaine,
Thanks for the input.

I guess it takes 25% drop and 7 weeks after we (PRE) announced the top for CNBC to come up with their own top(:-

Good Trading

boris said...

Everybody, please take a look at the chart just published.
Also note that if you correlate this back to the pressure charts, you will see that these points come at just critical junctures in the pressure charts where they react a bit back to the upside and then roar down to kick the stock market in the A..

Good Trading

John said...

Blaine,

A friend of mine owns a pawn shop. When people come in now to sell their gold, they hear the price and most of them walk out. He obviously pays the going rate and these pawners or sellers are used to the higher price. He told me over the weekend that 3/4 of the people just walk out.

old john

Blaine said...

John,
That's interesting. Until the market and politicians prove me wrong, I expect the U.S. economy to collapse by 2012. I expect gold to be closer to $2000 than $1000.

We shall see. But the gold top we called earlier this year is just as Boris said, an intermediate top. The final top will be huge...

John said...

Blaine.

Not much with the technical stuff but I have a bunch of stories:

sharon said...

Dear Boris

BOI increase rate by 25 pts. I hope we are not going back to 3.3-3.4 levels again.

Sharon

Blaine said...

And for the SPX to be down 20+ the ISEE is surely pretty high today. Hmmm.

boris said...

Dear Sharon,
We do not need to hope.
Market speaks, if we listen.
So, what did the market say today.
It seems to me that in some yet unknown/unnamed language to me, it said. Hell with you Dear Central Banker, I am going down , even if you raise the rates.

How about market talking with authority.

Yes.

good Trading

John said...

Boris,

Watching the yen and spx- move for move.



old john

boris said...

Dear John,
At this point, as you can see the Market is not reacting.

I think , as I said, if this markekt did not recover into close, it is history. Bad Hisotory...

GOod Trading Dear John

John said...

Boris

We will see if that 1260 area holds tomorrow ( or even today)-opinion?

old john

boris said...

Dear John,
I think it holds today. Dear John,
But not tomorrow, most likely

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear John,
I think it holds today. Dear John,
But not tomorrow, most likely

Good Trading

John said...

Boris,

thanx

old john