Thursday, August 14, 2008

Attraction Points(Apoints)

1275 1273 1270 1265 spx 1284 1286 1289 1294

11:33 ET, Dear Readers, one of the things Markets can do is to go into long(er) sideways actions and stay there ( how nice to be in the stocks with nice dividends for that time). Now, the fact is that 75% of the time market "FLUCTUATES". So, how do you make money , especially with options in these kind of situations? Only by WRITING/SELLING options not buying them! This is why the investors job is easier, they do not work so hard and collect the dividends , either writing covered call and/or just buying the stocks that have nice YIELD and are good investments ( OVERTIME). It is important to discuss this, because the market may be entering a low(er) volatility stage and options BUYING may not be the optimal way to trade.

11:15 ET, Dear Readers, there is one information hat we need to pay attention. That is the market action. Indicators are just indicators. They can help, but can not cause market to go in any direction. It seems to me that all along , My warnings and direct instructions of not fooling around with this market are ignored , mostly. That is going on, because the general mindset of most of readers got used to market going down. Well, market stops going down sometimes and the mindset needs to go with it. We need to ask the market , what would cause the state of market to change? I have shown many times that it is imprinted in the action of the market. It tells us , by not going down, yet! that it is not ready and we said what the parameters for becoming bearish are. That is a progressive break of 1259, 1247 and 1234 the pivots that market has created on the way up. EVERY DAY I have repeated that. Dear Readers. I am no different from anybody else and have no magic tools hidden. I read the same PRESSURE chart you all get. Its patterns tell us the story. How many times can we hit a person that seems to be impervious for our punches. At some point we better stop or our fists will be broken, if not our ribs as the "STRONG PERSON/MARKET" comes back and hits back. NEED TO LISTEN TO THE MARKETS

29 comments:

lagscrew said...

Dear Boris

After looking at the red line on your chart this morning (avg buy) and going over my stuff it looks like this market can only go down

lagscrew said...

thought I was under water farther than I was but am 1% off of all time highs---that took a load off--LOL!!

lagscrew said...

check this out

http://www.stocktiming.com/Thursday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

boris said...

Dear Lag, I agree that
higher probability is of this market going lower.

I need to caution people though.
It is not that easy to make a call here.

Good Trading

אנטי-סופיטליסט said...

It sure is hurting the shorts here. looks like the q's are heading for 49 and that sucks. Even the market goes against the mds. waldo.

boris said...

Dear Waldo,
I Have, at no point, had a final green light, in this more for shorts and always conditioned it with the breakage of the pivot points.

Unfortunately, Shorts may have been entered without confirmation. That is hard, espcailly if one does that in the strongest component of the market.

Now, I do believe that if the shorts have time, they should be able to make money, but if it is options that could hurt, because the market may correct this overbought condition in a meandering fashion.

That would eat the premiums on the options.

It is Ok, Dear Waldo, in a bit of a time this episode will be gone, but memory should retain the desire to avoid these kind of situations.

MDS is just one part of we do and every day we present the summary of ALL evidence. Unfortunately , it has not fulfilled conditions, we asked the market to fulfil, before we would go and risk a lot of money on the downside.

Good Trading

Vishal said...

Dar Boris
Could you please list the indicators that you use in conjunction with the MDS ? or please point me to a post that does so (my apologies if this has been covered).

Do you just use the stuff in the checklist ? Maybe we could get an update on that.

boris said...

Dear Vishal,
YOu are getting update every day.
Pressure chart is updated.
PCratio is updated
MDS is UPDATED
YBR is known.
THat is it with the list.

Projections are given ahead.

Am I missing something?

I do not think so.

Dollar/AntiDollar is discussed everyday.

I do not think I missed anything.

Good Trading Dear Vishal

Blaine said...

$CPC tracking lower to 0.79 ... dangerous area. Closing data below 0.80 has turned the market down every time this year. The delay has sometimes been one month, however. Just follow the market's lead.

Vishal said...

Dear Boris, thanks for clarifying that Im not missing any info that you are looking at.

I can just eat the fish you give me or I can learn how to fish. I choose to learn :)

boris said...

Dear Vishal,
Frustrating part about markets is that everybody, until they become OLD(er) and USELESS like me(:-
thinks that there is a magic to knowing the market.

Yes, if there is one it is to become a good listener of the market and that is a hard work.

It does not take many indicators, it just takes knowing what the indicators are saying.

As you can see though decisive factor in last few weeks has been the Market action not the indicators, because the indicators are mixed and say market can go either way and it could be strong move, or it could be sideways.

There are times when market gives very little clues, where it wants to go.

But onc clue that everybody, even a 10 year old child, should learn quickly is that when the old lows are not getting broken, the market is telling us that it is going higher.

This is not hard to understand.

It does not mean that as soon as the first pivot is broken the hell breaks loose, but that
IS A MINUMUM, when market has shown tendency not to fail for many days.

That is what listening to the market means.

Good Trading
Dear Vishal

Vishal said...

I appreciate your patience with newbies like me Boris.

Cheers mate, God bless ya.

boris said...

Dear Vishal,
That is what makes me different,
I care about people I work with, even if they are just readers.
I teach until they change their (mis) conceptions about market. Market is in nobodies pocket. Often manipulated, but on a daily bases it has buers and sellers and that is all there is.

When the market goes into stearcase fashion move . 1 , 2 , 3 steps and traders sees that it registers in his/her ( must register) mind and watch them, for ... they are ONLY CLUES, market willingly gives out.

Incredible how simple it is.

I will explain later, how due to the fear of missing the moves , the traders do foolish things.

But those traders, have not yet learned how to be traders.

Good Trading

אנטי-סופיטליסט said...

Yes Boris you are right about your last comment, core inflation here in the US being the highest since 1991 and the market rallies more. Just don't make since, I guess I will sign my social security check and hand over my 401 accts to them and just die off so they can have more fun and I am talking about the bastards that manipulate this market to the extreme. Capitalizm at it's finest. waldo.

אנטי-סופיטליסט said...

also largest default in years for companies and they say it is a silver lining for them. What about the people living in the streets and starving to death, maybe that is a silver lining for them. waldo

boris said...

Dear Waldo,

You and I and lot of other people, are not born traders.

We would be rather with our families to enjoy activities other than this most of the time.

The goverment that you are talking about, has made all of us traders, because that is another way they can fleece us.

You are correct. We know that, discussed that. They are putting us in the RING with THEM without gloves and say FIGHT!

How ridiculous!

But we must fight Dear Waldo, there is no other way. FIAT they print is worthless and they have us running like rats to keep the value up( impossible task).

God Bless all who must fight every day without knowing how

GOod Trading

Blaine said...

Boris,
I want to rant about what you said about Sopitalists forcing us into the ring:

It is so true. They have forced everyone into the capital markets because they have destroyed our pensions and forced everyone into a 401k. At the same time, they have held down real wages while sending all consumer prices and capital asset prices higher. You simply cannot survive by working 9-5 and keeping what little you don't spend in an account earning 3% interest.

I make a nice annual wage, but living in Southern California, I cannot afford to own a home. The median price in Orange County peaked in the high $700k's, but it has still only corrected to $600k. I'm talking median house. Not even in a nice area. To qualify for that loan I would need $120k in cash and a loan for $480k. The jumbo loan rates right now are 9%. Even with perfect credit. Not many people can afford that. Even if we bottom at $500k, I'm still priced out. Because my salary grows maybe 5% per year. And even if I could put down a jumbo down payment, is that even a smart thing to do?

The only way to get ahead is to trade (gamble) at the national sopitalist casino and keep your pot growing and protected from inflation. And more times than not, they take your money and you go home to the rat race where you started.

And if/when you get ahead, you are taxed on capital gains 30% and about 30% for ordinary income. Not counting the 9% you have to pay to California.

Did I mention the average rent out here is $1,500 for a one-bedroom apartment? And student loans average $400/month because education was so expensive, no one can afford it. And you need a car and gas and food to survive and get to work. And you have to max out your 401k to reduce taxes and maximize your future value. And you have to contribute to an ESPP to benefit from the 15% equity discount. And so on and so on. Many people in Southern California making $100k+ are poor. And it is mostly the generation born after 1978. They are all so f--ed, bohica'd, betrayed, jaded, just ready to start the revolution. If they weren't so lazy, numb and apathetic, it would have already started by now.

The depression is going to make it happen. Because no one can afford to live in this country any more.

Thanks America. Your dream is dead. Your leaders are all scum who sold this country down the river to private banks and greed. F--- this country.

אנטי-סופיטליסט said...

Blain,

What you just said speaks to my heart. I 100% agree.

jimwhite33 said...

Hi boris from reading your blog you are very tuned in to the currency but not correctly bullish on the stocks , but to your credit you are not short , so that is the way it goes in this crazy casino, you are still one of the best I have come across on the internet and your concern for the little people still overwhlems me.JWW

אנטי-סופיטליסט said...

I second that blaine and say amen. truer words were never spoken and most of the sheep don't even realise what is happening to them and to stupid or lazy to do any thing about it referring to the boston tea party days. waldo

boris said...

Dear Blaine,
I can not agree with you more.
This is the message we have carried all along.

Not only that, on a practical level, I would like to convince people that It pays to be an investor and take easier steps. There one still has some chance. In trading, unless you are able to trade with stops like mine it is impossible to make money and that took me years to perfect. Still not really able to consistently make money, but I am not losing or playing much either these days.

I realise, If I can not trade this market scuccesfully, it will be very difficult for anybody to do so. That is Ok, though. The trader mentality is extremely helpful, when investing. You understand who feeds you! so to speak.

Have you noticed? While I teach all I can how to trade, I am really trying to convince people to become an investor and trade with moeny so small that perhaps one day one learns and becoms good trader too. That is possible. It just takes such a long time to prepare one for such mentally demanding work. And remember, you are trying to compete with the best out there. All brainy people think they can come and kill others in the market.

Good Investor, must know trading, but does not have to trade for living. That is what I mean.

I am not going to go into what Dear Blaine has very nicely stated . We all know who we are dealing with on the other side.

Good Trading Dear Blaine and all readers

אנטי-סופיטליסט said...

another thing that bothers me about our great US, a friend sent me an email last night that kuwait went on war alert because the US and Israel has teamed up with the nuclar war machines and was heading to the persian gulf. I wonder why and not one news note out there on it in the US, I wonder if the big boys are quietly selling to the little guy again. Wouldn't suprise me at all. waldo

boris said...

Dear Waldo,
Yes, it could all be, but at some point markets body language should show the downturn is coming or it will not happen right.

THose are the kind of things we need to watch.

YOU could well be right. It is either that or we have just entered a miniBULL market

GOod Trading

Dror said...

Hi there,
Boris, i know you didnt like my style the last time i wrote here but i'll give it another try.
i like the way you see ccy's, you also ctach the short swings for equities. but i think as i said befor you are about to miss the great move that is building up. all the shit is out there, its time to collect STOCKS.

boris said...

Dear Dror,
I am not missing anything.
I have asset allocation that is at this time 40% in the stocks and that is a lot for an grown MAN.
It is on this site.

We are discussing here trading. I had mentioned that we may have completed the Bear market for now. I still think that we are not going to make new highs ( at least not in real terms) and we will be lower by 2011-12 , MUCH lower.

That is it.

If you have specific techincal detail, we can appreciate. I can give you all the waves anybody likes, I hate them, but I can do them just as well as anybody else.

I just told you what the investment thinking is here and it is open to the public every day. There is nothing hidden.

So, Yes, we could be in a Bull market.

Good Trading

אנטי-סופיטליסט said...

Manipulating stock and dollar up from now till the end of year in order to support election is nothing new but old trick. It happens during the last election.

Greenie said...

Wow folks, you are whining too much. Typically it happens, when people have large drawdowns. Is that the case here?

That dror guy surely looks like a troll here. Hmm...

boris said...

Dear Greenie,
Some people got overextended, perhaps, that happens.

It never happened to anybody?

Now, it is not due to what My approach is or was suggested.

It just happens.

Good Trading

Blaine said...

Greenie,
I'm up this year. I just hate America and what it has become. Looking to move, but can't find a better place on my savings...