Monday, August 25, 2008

Another Spectacular Call By YBR

YBR , YELLOW BRICK ROAD ( and WBR, WHITE BRICK ROAD), have done it again. After picking the 16 July as a bottom with perfection, they have called another perfect top at 26th of August +-2 trading days. Unbelievable, but available for $1000/year subscription


lagscrew said...

This makes a lot of cents--from another blog

Amazingly enough the 10 year note is yielding 3.8% while inflation is running at 5.6%. Why in the world would the bond vigilantes allow a negative yield? The commodity bulls have been pointing to the negative yield as an excuse for why commodities in general and gold specifically should be moving higher. Generally speaking bond traders are probably the most sophisticated investors in the market. Now either these investors are completely off base or bond traders are sensing deflation in our future.

Somehow I doubt the bond market is wrong. If that's the case then the collapse in commodities makes perfect sense.

tim9lives said...

By Simone Meier

Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- German business confidence fell more than economists forecast in August, to a three-year low, heightening concern that Europe's largest economy may be slipping into a recession.

The Munich-based Ifo institute's business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, fell to 94.8 from 97.5 in July. Economists expected a drop to 97.2, the median of 35 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey shows.

Germany's economy contracted in the second quarter and may not grow in the third. While oil prices have receded from a record $147.27 a barrel, they're still up 60 percent over the past year, crimping companies' spending power just as the euro's appreciation and the U.S. housing slump weigh on export demand.

``Business confidence will continue to decline,'' said Andreas Speer, an economist at Bayerische Landesbank in Munich. ``We're in the middle of a slowdown with a high risk of a recession.''

The euro dropped more than a cent to $1.4597 after the release and bond yields fell.

Tis news has given the dollar a big boost,,now at 77.46,,,,which means it took out two previous highs set on 12/20/07 and 2/6/08

John said...


Good morning

old john

boris said...

Dear Lag,
We shall discuss this subject later.
I think that most of treasury buyers are rate and dollar incencitive ( like JAPAN, CHINA, ARAB COUNTRIES).

So, I would not equate the Bond Buyers with Vigilantes.

The vigilantes like GROSS have moved to Currency Arbitrage with BONDS and and spread products and they are not to by counted to be VIGILANT.

GOod Trading

boris said...

Dear Tim,
Saw that , Thanks for reporting.
YEs, EUROS are pushed hard today.

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear John,
Good Morning.

Good Trading
My Dear Friend

tim9lives said...

Dear Boris,,,Do you think we will see the dollar go much higher from here,,,,$DXY is now at 77.54
I forget if you felt that we will see 80.00 or not.
Thanks Tim

boris said...

Dear Tim,
I said exactly that, a , likely, target was 80.

I guess that is what convinced Dear XERXES To stay in Dollar After all(:-

Good Trading

אנטי-סופיטליסט said...

Greetings Boris,
Loved your comment that treasury buyers are not to be counted to be
vigilant :-)
But one thing we can count on-
you being VIGILANT to cut through
the headlines and give us the truth. Whatever the news is today
you told us months ago where the dollar was going.The news seems to follow the price.Everyone seems to be jumping on the dollar bandwagon.
But where were they when you predicted the sickly greenback to have a surge and oil and gold to plunge?
Thank you my friend for being
vigilant for the little guy.
Good trading,

boris said...

Dear Klaatu,
Thank you for stadning beside me along with the brave and best of the net.

Salute My Dear Friends

Good Trading