Friday, July 18, 2008

Thanks For Being With US

Dear Readers, It was a long and tiring week, but being with the best Friends made it easier. Markets got some footing , as we suspected the 16th should bring and BKX as a leading the market down has hit a benchmark level of 45.9 astonishing 62% ( FIBO, HUH!) loss from 121 top. Talk about the Price and Time... Dear GANN is smiling in his grave. And Yes, we will wait for the world to confirm, but our call of enormous importance on ANTIDOLLAR may well have come true.
Have a nice weekend

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אנטי-סופיטליסט said...

Good morning Boris, well took friday off and got some things done, my question is the 30 year bond yield has put in an inverted head and shoulders pattern and has an upside target of 53, they are now trading in the 46 and change area. With interest rates moving back up will that move stocks especally financials and housing back down and without the financials the market shouldn't have much upside left in it unless it goes against the grain so to speak. Thanks as always. waldo.

boris said...

I shall get back to you soon. Thanks for patience
Good Trading

boris said...

Dear Waldo,

First, Projections. I think that bond rates can go higher into September, which may well be what will support the Dollar. That may or may not be associated with a strong market as in the latest paradigm ( from 3/2008) rates and stocks mostly together. Higher rates, higher stocks and lower rates , lower stocks till 16 July and higher stocks higher rates again last few days. The real thing thos is the YIELD curve, steeper the curve , easier for the banks to make money. And that thing got steeper after Dear BERNANKE floodgates, but now is a bit more flat. In general that CURVE being in the middle and perhaps turning back to steeper soon will not make banks earnings outlook worst( hope is).

So, to make the story short, I think rates could rise ( especially on the long end) and Market may meander for a while, and take a dive again with rates falling only sometimes. I would like to revisit all of this by mid,late next month as that would be interesting period to evaluate things, but if rates move really strong they could only mean two things the economy is stroner than anybody believes not and Dollar and rates go up, with Stocks doing better. Or the rates are going up to stop the slide in Dollar and Stocks transpiring at once.

If the first scenario is correct than Stocks should soon put the bottom in ( if not already ) and move higher on balance after late August/Septemeber period
Good Trading