What's up in AGRIcultural Business. As you see below are the components of MOO ( AGRI ETF). It has many components, but the strongest one of them are the components in the MINERALS category ( MO, MOS, TRA, POT) These are providing the minerals, seeds , for the soil to be productive. As you can see even these are beginning to taper out. Others have already tapered out. Now the other ETF to look at for a better understanding of what is going on is the ETF called DBA. This one has the 25% weighting of CORN,SOYBEAN , WHEAT and SUGAR. Below I will provide my charts on this group of minerals producers and ETFS themselves. It looks to me as if, unless DBA is able to overcome the FAHAP ( first annual high attraction point) firmly we could be looking at a trouble in the MOO land.
6265 6248 6221 6176 DAX 6348 6364 6392 6436
3256 3236 3203 3148 ESTX 3357 3377 3411 3465
Dear Readers, Please note, MDS and Daily are both , fresh on the Protected link
3256 3236 3203 3148 ESTX 3357 3377 3411 3465
Dear Readers, Please note, MDS and Daily are both , fresh on the Protected link
07:01 ET, First a quick response to pit59 question outstanding from the morning. Dear Pit Yes, I am of the opinion that of the majors GBP is the one to SCREW first. It is hard to mess with EURO and SWISSY, even as they have declined since APRIL and SWISSY did even more so. Then I would continue onto AUD, I believe this currency will be one of the biggest losers once it became clear that nobody wants all the COAL and IRON any more. NZD as readers remember was my favorite high YIELD currency shorts and that has come to pass. Same will happen to AUD, which again, I correctly said ( in the past) will take more to go down than the NZD. So, slowly, but surely the things said here took place and above constitutes my current thinking. I would also stay away from most Asian Currencies, except CNY(RANMINBI) and YEN soon ( after crash(et)).
01:08 ET, Dear Sharon look up for answer to your question regarding NAZMDS performance.
07:09 ET, Dear Bert, you answer coming My Dear Friend. Dear Bert, right of the bert(sorry bat(:- ), I agree with you that this correction in rates looks like a 5 wave formation, but I think if so, it may well be part of an ABC correction, of which this 5 wave move could be just an A wave. If so, then I would think that we get the rates go higher ( TNOTES lower) for B and then rates could come lower to coincide , perhaps , with a bigger/badder bottom in the stock market in August,September time frame. If that is what you thought a possible scenario was, it would fit in a local jump in IR, which means the decline in TNOTES and some temporary recovery in stocks, which if it all happens by 17th would make you and me hero's of market predictors(:- ... Thanks for the question Dear Bert and Love you. Now to complete the initial saying, right of the bert(sorry again bat(:- ), You know and I stated here often, that I am bearish on Bonds and would not want anybody to take the Bond Bull market seriously.
18 comments:
dear boris
good morning.
I hope MDS finally join the NAZ today. this unsync status is paralyzing.
Sharon
Dear Boris
What do you think about the agro market ? it looks like POT and alikes are still on the uptrend even though the OIL is down.
Sharon
Dear Sharon,
You use the right word Paralyzing.
But, frankly I prefer the one
"when in doubt but out"
And that is where we are at this time.
This only raltes to swing positions though.
SHort term traders can/should use APs to take positions ( like yesterd) and a longer term investor should be accumulating slowly, while, in general, staying underinvested ( we have less than 40% ) invested reco in stocks at this time and would prefer those stocks to be of income variety.
So the paralysis refers to a time frame, right?
Good Trading
Dear Sharon,
the other avenue, for us,
has been the the speial reports forecasting which provided a good action for those looking outside of the STOCKS market ( though it is all realted and the IDEAS cross plinate). So, that is a good action field.
Now the AGRI.
Let me put some more serious thining in that, even though, In my opinion, agro should suffer after OIL does. If/when OIL suffers the ETHANOL suffers the corn retreates and I hear the acres for planting are increasing all over the world as a result of record prices.
I think the AGRI is much more elastic on its own , once the OIL drivers are removed from CORN.
Good Trading
Will respond later as well
thanx boris for your inputs.
dear boris
thanks. as always, thrilling analysis.
I wonder if you have statistics on the NAZ machine performance, I assume it is less accurate since it based on limited data compare to the SPX.
Sharon
Dear Sharon,
We try to be thourough... not always succesful(:- but honest
NAZ performance( shorter history)
is on the protected site
Thanks Deaer Sharon and Good Trading
Boris,
Good morning
old john
Dear Boris,
Good morning.
Ten year notes look like they need a little push higher in price to complete five waves up. IF that is the case, it might coincide nicely with a low of some sort in the spx. What are your current thoughts on interest rates please?
Good trading to you.
Bert
Dear Boris
I can't see it in the protected site, there is always SPX status.
Small corrction to your post, you are the most honest man I ever met in this adisory business, keep be smart and modest.
Sharon
Manafacture production in France shows large decline of 2.6 %. It looks like the euro countries are starting to feel thier mighty currency influence.
Dear Sharon,
That is why , as THE MACHO MAN TRISCHE wants/threatens to keep EURO high, he is asking the BUSH ADMINISTRATION to keep the "talking DOLLAR UP".
These Central HACKERS are truly that(:-
Circus ( CENTRAL) anyone.
Dear TRische looks to WAHSINGTON, WAHISNGTON looks to CHINA and CHINA says "what , Why ME, RANMINBE"
I have never seen the Central Hackers in such disarray, but so far they managed the stability of sorts in last 3 months, by FLATLINING the Dollar.
It is hard to manage UNMANAGABLE...
FIAT MONEY is unmanagable and destroys , countries and people and sub portions of population.
FIAT MONEY and their managers lost all MORAL compas and way with this writer at least.
Good Trading
Dear Boris
thanx for the NAZ info, it looks like it better in long trade compare to SPX.
by the way, someone wake up fisher (BOI) take a look on the SHEKEL.
Sharon
Dear Sharon , when was the last time you looked....
Do not look now,
It just lost 6% in 15 minutes
It is incredible, what is allowed in this, SO CALLED MANAGED world of currencies.
I think, personally that these people at central banks just need to be recalled and given "go home" instructions and GOVS should return to sound money and society , instead of the LAB TESTTING on people their dark sciense of FIAT MONEY mis(management).
That is what I think should happen and next revolution may start exactly in this area.
Good Trading
Dear Sharon,
sorry quick correction
SHEKEL just dropped 3% not 7%
Good Trading
3% indeed
take a look on the US futures, is this turn because BOI as well ? :-)
Dear Sharon,
Yes, must be(:-
Good Trading
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