Friday, November 30, 2007

Limits

N QQQQ 51.74(51.51) - 52.39
N SPX 1483 (1479) - 1492

Dear Readers, what you are witnessing is the ugliest YEN manipulation I have ever seen. No rules, the only rule is that the ruling/manipulating elite makes money, cause they know exactly when the start and end the YEN push. YEN is still in the 1,1,0,0,0 which is powerful day and weekly buy, but I have seldom seen the this config go so far without correction.

In my opinion you are looking at the biggest sign of slavery of the world people by few financial elitists, who will stop at nothing to screw us anyway they can ( thanks god they can not do it to us, cause we are smart, even if not in control), but from Social Security to Casino Currency Markets and Casino Stock Markets their tools are endless to stick it to "little people" everywhere and everytime.
It is possible you do not see it yet, but when you have been as long in the markets and correlated so many events as I have, with market manipulation you will become believer too. Actually this is one lesson I would like for all to ponder for a long long time.
I am not advocating to sue anybody or such stupidity. I just say that if you do not have that mentality, I do not think you will make money in the markets. The only people who make money in the markets are not the traders, but the one's that intuitively or actually know that markets are manipulated and FED/Government/Japan ( SOPITALISTS) will always do what is needed to save the Multinationals and especially financials, cause they are the intermediaries without which absolutely nothing can be done. They are the ultimate tools of SOPITALIST domination.

Dear Readers, please note the system "earlybreakerssystem" in the picture. This system may never be shown again in the picture, so take a good look. This is a system which has been 82% correct. and produced 500% gain uptodate for one year or less. It is on SELL. Also notice that the system is often early and you could do better hunting for the TOP limits within 1-3 days after the SELL signal was issued.
Enjoy

Dear Readers, before going short notice, system is often early.!!!! it could be your worth wile to wait.



Dear REaders, IF I missed somebodies question please forgive me. Very tiring/exhausting week this was.
15:39 ET, Current YEN status 1,1,0,0,1, Not so good but hanging in there still

See Pressures Very HIgh,Day More?




Dear Readers, Sell pressures are enourmous, but summation line could use one more day up to reach the onverbought condition above +2. Nevertheless it is time to look for shorting opportunities, very carefully.
YEN is pushing higher on the strength of 5 Min buy signlal ( 1,1,0,0,1) is the current state. The man behind the curtain seems to be pushing the strings too hard to make this look as a super bull market... Interesting detail, out of 27 trades of the kind we had Wednesday largest open from two days of the day has been 4 points. Futures are now about 8 points... above "the days" close. HMHMHMHM... is this time to sell?
Good Trading
05:07 ET, YEN just flipped 1,1,0,0,0 not too good for more rise in general, but the daily seems to be having a stabilizing influence even as all intraday signals are sell(sorry it was a 1 minute that flipped, correct status is 1,1,0,0,1 still).
05:25 ET, YEN just hit 110.87 mere 0.04 points away from the 5th resistance, what a SOB's these traders of YEN are?!
and the state now has flipped to 1,1,0,0,0
So, is the man behind the curtain done? Let us hope so...

Thursday, November 29, 2007

Thanks For Being With Us

Dear Readers, The National SOPITALIST Casino is now closed for today. We did not trade, just spend 3/5% we made yesterday, theorized and honed our skills at statistics of the market and the understanding by the readers of the charts we publish. Is it a poetic justice or what for the market to have closed ( after aimless gyrations entire day) within 0.01% from where the statistics would give the average close( statistics +1.6, actual 1.50 at this point). If I told you this morning the story, I could only remember to tell after Dear Blaines asked a history question, that expectation was for the SPX to close +1.6 +-1.1 standard deviation, would you have believed? Well, see the analysis below.
Ok , and how about that $US Dollar ha... Yes, be warned though to not fall in love with the rising Dollar yet.

02:54 ET, JPY status 1,1,0,0,0 and that showed up in 40 point drop from 110.60 to 110.20 in last hour
04:28 ET, JPY status 1,1,0,0,1 some relief for JPY to perhaps go go higher ( drop in price), but this 5 min flip to buy has not much power beyond 25-30 min time frame

LImits coming up

N QQQQ 51.25 (50.52) - 51.93
N SPX 1458 ( 1454) - 1474

09:35 ET, Current YEN Status 1,1,0,1,1 , intraday favorable ( in general)

10:15 ET, Current YEN status 1,1,0,1,1, unchanged ( hourly sell signal is overpowering the 15 min and 5 min buy signals at this time)

10:26 ET, Current YEN status 1,1,0,1,1, unchanged ( hourly sell signal is overpowering the 15 min and 5 min buy signals at this time) only change... the 5 min buy has been reafirmed just now, meaning if YEN holds the low it can go higher

11:03 ET, the 15 min buy got reafirmed as well, while the status remains 1,1,0,1,1 the last two signals have just been reconfirmed, which is favorable for number rising ( YEN declining , for a very short time).

11:47 ET, YEN status remains the same and it has helped push YEN lower and stocks higher.

Jim Taylor, JD said...
Hi Boris,Hi JIM, Huge Reversal Today:Resistance Cluster:13340.57 DOW9801 (99sq) NYSE2670.30 NAZ 2093 NDX100 Best regards,Jim

Dear Readers, let me remind you that JD had a pretty good call about the SPX P&F generating the SELL signal just around the top of SPX. So, you ignore his statements at your own risk...

13:46 ET, YEN status 1,1,0,1,1 with all of that YEN is unable to get the positive momentum going. When an hourly sell so overpowers the 15 and 5 min buys, it looks like a market that wants to go down ( up for YEN)

Due to the question Dear Blaine asked, I will share with you the findings of one of the systems I developed a while ago. I wanted to know, what happens when the day is so strong that it is certain percent higher than the previous day and if I buy what chances do I have of making money 2 days after. ( meaning I buy on the big day and sell the open of the day after the after - second day).

The answer depends on the big day(ours Wednesday)... 82%(for Tuesday),62%(Wednesday,average winning trade is 1.6 spx points, average losing trade is -1.3 spx points),48%(Thursday),53%(Friday),46%(Monday) (HUH) of the time the market can be sold higher under those conditions ( for the history of SPX of 50 years). Ok!

For Wednsday not a big deal you have a chance of making some money, but more important outcome of this is that in either case the open of the second day is not very far from the big day close!!!!!!!!!!!!! I love this result it tells me do not hurry putting in the shorts, which confirms all other things we discussed today ( it is, almost, never immediate sell when tbe sell pressure becomes high... you need some distribution days). It is from all of those little peaces confirming each other that one gets confidence to trade.

15:46 ET, now this is fun to watch would not it be nice if the market (SPX) closed 0-4 points above yesterday and then open tomorrow somewhere within that range. It would be right down the statistics I gave you above ( AMAZING, but please understand there were 27 or so trades of this kind in 50 years and there was some deviation, averages never tell entire story)

Let us Discuss This Together









Dear Readers, I am now putting up the charts early for your interest. Once you get a chance to look at it. See if you get an idea of where we are and what the possibilities should be(were ) in similar situations. It is fun and it is not mandatory, but it is for your benefit to see how you and others react to this information or are you putting more emphasis to what I say. Regardless just thinking about it will make you a better reader of the charts produced here. My comments will be last.
06:04 ET, YEN current status 1,1,0,1,1 , still too strong to breakdown yet. Would require one or both of last 1's to go to Zero.
06:18 ET, YEN current status 1,1,0,1,0 , weaker than few minutes ago more conducive to YEN going down (up in price).
copy of the answer to Xerxes Comment ( how to read the YEN Status)
the system is a multidimensional buy/sell setup.five number relate toWEEKLY/DAILY/60MIN/15MIN/5MIN
Buy Sells. I hope this is clear. Anybody with the appropriate horizon will decide how to use this system.
Strictly intraday people should pay most attention to the last three digits , intermediate ones should look at mid 3 digits and long term traders should look at first three digits. This is very roughly. Trader can use this anyway he/she likes
Due to larger influence of YEN on world finance than any other currency and extremely close correlation between all speculative markets and YEN ( including your stock markets) , I suggest that ALL pay the close attention to these 5 numbers of YEN I publish. They tell you more than thousand highly payed annalists can or will
For ISRAELI Readers, Shekel is going to bottom between 3.80 and 3.50 and that will happen before PASSOVER 2008. Sell you SHEKELS before then and keep in touch as we update here
My comments relating the Charts of today. Damien set the tone, giving us an excellent interpretation of the charts. Dave has added important detail about the overall summation tilting lower, which if continues I agree is scary. I am glad that you guys/girls really understand how to read these graphs. I would add that please pay attention to the BLUE solid lines ( longer term pressure lines) they are at important high readings, but they can go higher. Nevertheless if they turn down decisively the market has turned and will go up. Thanks all

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Thanks For Being With Us


Dear Readers, The National SOPITALIST Casino is now closed for today. We did not trade officially, but many of us have taken personal positions traded upon the limits given here last two days. Needless to say all reports I heard were profitable, Good Luck ( Na Zdarovie ). 4-5% gains in one or two days is not bad for anybody! So, what is next? Well we have already been told by our ROADMAP what is next, just look at it. Is the beast out of the bottle? has it taken over us. We do not even need to think, except print the limits and buy or sell as the roadmap says? I do not know this sounds scary proposition to me...

Yes Dollar had a huge move up 2-3% against most currencies. We told you so, but we also told you that it will fade in a day or two and $US is going to the final fall on the knife in mid late December
03:12 ET, Current Yen State 1,1,0,1,1, if one of the last 2 falls to ZERO we could see YEN rapid fall

Limits

N QQQQ 50.50 - 50.82 ( 50.88,51,51.20, 51.42)
No volatility change will preserve numbers
N SPX 1429 - 1452

09:39 ET, I do not know what future brings( You are laughing(: :), but I really do not. So, I just pocketed 4% gains for one day on all my investments not bad, why wait a Year if I can do it in 1 day?.Now, this is me mixing the trader and INVESTOR. If I can make 5% in CD and add 4% in a day, I got 9% for a year for one days work. Now I call this efficiency, cause I can live on 9% a Year.

10:06 ET, YEN status unchanged 1,1,0,0,0
Did anybody watch AIG, at highest points yesterday and today it gained 11-12% HUH!

11:59 ET, DO not bet against YEN it is hard to play against today. The only real hard resistance now is at 110.40 110.60. Hopefully stops there.

12:40 ET, YEN status now still 1,1,0,0,0, Interesting that YEN could do so much damage while within the sell on all intraday oscillators. Daily and Weekly are overwhelming the intras at this time. But this could not last long time. In reality YEN did not appreciate too much from the 930 levels, but the timing is stretched

Grouptational observation, The stocks that lead initial surge ( financials et al.) are not the ones leading the midday rally, these are mostly tech as NASDAQ has gained the most from the early 10+ Am. Which is suggesting to me that the GROUPTATION is going on now to techs and NASDAQ is the one to watch for signs of weakness. Remember we thought that Nov30 - Dec3 time frame had rally written over it. So, while I certainly support taking profits , aggressive shorting here is not recommended even as it may turn out to be very profitable.

late/early to join Dollar bull?




Dear Redaerds, I said about a week ago that there will be a larger Dollar correction within next 10 days which will be followed by the last suicide down run by USDollar. Well, you are looking at it. 3 points 2% correction in EURO and about similar corrections in CHF/JPY etc. Well, I am not going to congratulate myself for that , cause there is no time for me to congratulate for so many good calls. Instead, I am warning you , do not get carried away with this Dollar Rally, cause it is ending today tomorrow, but I promise to tell you when the more important turn comes by the end of NEXTmonth. Markets, ha what can I say... INVESTORS should have bought some yesterday(no more than 10% of stock investable funds) ( like I did CANADA BANKS SOME USA BANKS(USB,WFC,BAC), SOME Development COmpanies ACAS/GLAD). Those that can give you 4-10% easily even if stocks go down. The rest - traders, follow our notes with YEN as a proxy market conditions.
Good Trading
08:01 ET, Current Yen State 1,1,0,0,0 this does not bode well for the stocks today unless it changes, but how? We need YEN to get stronger that is how and yes this is not so good for stocks.
09:39 ET, I do not know what future brings( You are laughing(: :), but I really do not. So, I just pocketed 4% gains for one day on all my investments not bad, why wait a Year if I can do it in 1 day?.

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Thanks For Being With Us




Dear Readers, the National SOPITALIST Casino is closed for today. We did not officially trade, but gave good limits and were in the mode for baying things ( hit the limit 49.12 on Q's like bulls EYE). I personally bought some Canadian banks ( 2 of which were up more than 4 % today BMO and TD , also bought some American Banks as a contrarian play, also up 2-3%). YEN did what we thought will do ( Dear Curaki must making money). And $US rose as we thought it would. Gold took a little dive in sympathy with currencies. Dear Waldo and John both reported nice gains and All I can say ENJOY( Na Sdarovie )

23:23 ET,Yen update Now 1,1,0,1,1 Wuol love the hourly to be buy also, but is not . Looks Ok for now, but the trailing stops must be in place at around 90% retrace of the last rally.
00:35 ET, Yen update Now 1,1,0,0,1 ( take profits if you are an intraday trader)

By the way $US rally may end today as well, even as we project the it ending in 29-30 period.

01:42 ET, YEN is now 1,1,0,0,0 ( usually not good for short term 4,8 hour outlook, even though the powerful weekly and daily are pushing higher(lower in price)) sorry for typo 1,1,0,1,0
was the state at that time and I copied it incorrectly, which should explain the better performance

So what did they buy, prime to by, yesderday? see the comment number 12




Marks Comments


Hi Boris, Back up to the trendline for the $SPX, $NDX isn't near any of it's trendlines. The $SPX chart being at the trendline with $TRIN and Put/Call ratios somewhat low would suggest another down day coming up...Regards,Mark L.
06:42 ET, no change in YEN state, meanwhile hit(almost 62fib retrace!?) 110.
Did we have a HUGE Dollar Retrace Call correct or what, but do not get carried away, we could be approaching the end of that rally

Limits

N QQQQ 49.23(49.13,48.92) - 49.82 (50.12, 50.44)
N SPX 1413 ( 1411, 1407)) - 1422

Amazing as Q's were hitting the 49.12 second support, YEN hit the first support, if this gives on YEN we could be in another drawn out day

We have nailed the 49.12 like champs ha!

11:58 ET, For a very very short termers I would take here some ( perhaps partial profits ) and let the rest ride.

12:09 ET, update on YEN, it is now in 1, 1, 0, 1, 0 this configuration where one is buy and 0 is sell and the timeframe is WEEK/DAY/60Min/15Min/5Min. This implies that we got a short term sell here. Only those concerned with a short and intraday timeframes should book profits here. Anybody with the WEEKLY and longer outlook could hang in, but must have stops below today's low ( unconditional)

Benefit of no doubt is UP







Dear Readers, while last post said benefit of the doubt is up, now we say benefit of no doubt is up. Ok , why? Primarily because of the two events that took place overnight. One YEN has hit the loooong projected 107 and second the summation BLUE oscillator has decisively penetrated below -2 ( condition for buy, last time we were turning up from -1.8 or so , not low enough, thus creating doubt). It is also one of the lowest seen on the record. In this territory this oscillator is much more reliable indicator of the bottom ( perhaps at least, local).
A note about the timing. Remember we have the ROADMAP ( Aah , how precise that guy(: :) and we also have independently corroborating factors, YEN Roadmap, SPX Mirror, GOLD cycles, Currency cycles and it is scary that they are corroborating each other. We should either hit bulls EYE on what our projections are, or somebody is planting impossible illusions in US . Well, soon you will be able to judge which one was the case(: :)
08:12 ET, YEN is determined to make few more investors miserable this morning. It has corrected back almost an entire correction of last night. Here is what I see. On a multidimensional buy/sell system I have WEEKLY/DAILY/5MINUTE on BUY and 15MIN/60MIN on SELL. I would welcome some more play around here by YEN to flip 15/60MIN time frames into buy as well. At that time there maybe few forces to stop the YEN going lower in Price(higher in numbers above 107 and towards 109 initially).
08:16 ET, As I was posting the above 15MIN time frame flipped into BUY. We may or may not get/need the 60Min in the BUY, but I would love/welcome it if it comes( we did not have one for last 4 days!)
08:45 ET, Looks like YEN is reading our blog and as soon as it saw 4 out of 5 timeframe signals were on the buy... took off and is now above 108 again!
So, what did they buy,prime to by yesterday? OK look into the comment 5 and see the list of groups. 1's indicate favored groups and 0' not favored. You know now, why SPX went down so hard. See all the REITS at the bottom? On the other hand everybody and their mother seems to be buying BONDS? does it make sense ( except we told you to do so in June at the top Dear Readers, do you remember when 10year was 5.30 and people were thinking the end of the great bond bull market has come?! now it is at 3.91, somebody who listened to us is making money without work, hallelujah, i must give a credit to PIMPO's(sorry PIMCO) Bill Gross for being a bond bull, but he was so for 2 years?!, in that timeframe notes went from 4.7 to 5.3 and back down to 3.91. Not nocking anybody down, Bill is a nice man I learned a lot from him)

Monday, November 26, 2007

Thanks For Being With Us




Dear Readers, The National SOPITALIST Casino is closed for today. We did not trade. Bias was higher and we did not get it. The scenario outlined though is still alive which says the rally into Late November to Dec 3rd and then decline into mid, mid-late Dec. This expected rally could go 50/60% fib retracement of the declines for all indices. Supportive of the same scenario is an outlook( still) for YEN , which implies the decline into Nov 28 - Nov 30 and then rise into mid, late-mid Dec. Same scenario , more or less, for EURO/CHF and, obviously inverse for $USDollar. Our scenarios do not always work out, but we have the limits and trading experience to save us when that is the case. By the way, outlook for GOLD is almost the same as the stock market ( GOLD GOING down into Dec 15-20?). Around the same time mid-late Dec we could have Dollar also rally a bit before final decline into late Dec, perhaps early Jan. Remember Never be a slave of the preconception of "scenarios". You saw today, I was not in the bullish mood even as the "scenario" called for one. Market is bigger than any scenario we can think of and we must be ready. To support the scenario we have and also to negate it and I brought my negations in today's post.

Good Trading
Hi Boris, Well, today was the day we originally thought should be the bottom, and the $SPX indeed managed to get to a lower point than last week. On the $SPX chart you can see an additional trendline I have added in dark Blue. It turns out that with time plotted as a logarithm sometimes price demonstrates additional trendlines not visible when price data is plotted in the ordinary way. Likewise, the $NDX has penetrated into one of it's formal Exponential Trendlines and the values for it and the trendline (not shown) below that one are given on the chart. $TRIN is getting rather high again, so tomarrow may see a bounce, although we may see more weakness at the open tomarrow. $nasi and $nysi still have not bottomed, so more weakness may lie ahead. I still have some sort of "feature" sitting out at 11/29/07 + or - 1 day, so it will be interesting to see if the breadth indicators bottom on or about the 29th...Regards,Mark Lytle
Dear Mark good work and congrats for having the fortitude to wait for one more day of low in SPX ( it is full of FINANCIALS... that is what is going down hard. I like BKX to go to 85.85 and be over, but then what is left for DECEMBER SHOW, cancel it(: :)? tickets are non redeemable and show/circus must go on! so said P.T. Barnum),Boris

limits

N QQQQ 49.92 - 50.37
N QID 40.03 - 41.01
N SPX 1436 - 1444.4(do you like this number?)

Dear Readers, we have a sizable history on most of the groups we follow, but some ( especially individual REIT groups have a limited history for now). Price can also be used for a historical observation in these cases. Make sure that if you want a graph of some group let me know and I will put it up next time. Good Trading

Dear Waldo, the outer limits (4th and 5th) on this one ( RUT) are 745 and 740 on the downside

12:38 ET, YEN may have turned for today, giving the Stock market chance?
14:15 ET, YEN is just about to hit the 4th Resistance around 107.80 , Usually this level before the fifth 107.35 stops the move on YEN. Help can not come at a better time for the markets. Independently, this about the time the Market turnaround is projected today.

Benefit of Doubt, UP late Nov







Dear Readers, All we know is the probabilities of events in life. Best I can tell the most probable event for late November is that market stages a late month rally and swoons back down into mid Dec. Everything I look at currently confirms this stand, but I could be looking in wrong places ( must give this caveat(: :). I must warn all that inspite of apparent good times for stocks, next couple days, it could turn down and break down hard any time, this is how bears opperate! ( Momentum, PC ratios Economy are not on the bulls side, nor is the Bernanke money machine)

Grouptation




Dear Readers, here we bring two tables of GROUPTATION. One is for all the groups and one for REITS. We separate REITS out due to its importance to income conscious investors and desire for them to be in the groups that are doing and/or should do better.

Please notice the world has changed a bit last couple weeks. China is in the upper corner of the table ( search GROUPTATION ), CHINESE must have learned to say NIET to drugs ( sorry stocks)(: :) and Brazil is in the middle? BRIC(Brazil/Russia/India/China) got BRICKED or shell we say STONED?
Good Trading

Note:(ignore the reits entry in the larger table for now. Look at specific REITS in the REITS table)

Saturday, November 24, 2007

How many Wakeup Calls?











Dear Readers. How many wake up calls does it take for Dollar to come out of the coma that it is in lately? Well, I think the above oscillator shows the first serious wake up call in last 3 months. As I say this may not be the last of the Dollar swoons ( expect it to continue into the end of this year), but it is the one that I was waiting for the beginners.






Hi Boris, Here I have taken two time scales on the $USD chart, and ran the pivots for both sets of waves (the smaller time scale I ran both the impulsive and the corrective waves) to see if anything stands out. There is quite a cluster of activity in February and particularly towards the end of that month. For each chart I am looking mostly at the 1.0 nodes as they usually represent completion of the Elliot wave sequence in question. On each chart you will see sets of three lines in groups that are shaded dark blue, dark green, and violet. Those represent the 1.272, average, and 1.382 time basis for each node, respectively. You can observe the exponential expansion of time by watching successive nodes spread out across the page. many of the lines pictured clearly demarcated major tops and bottoms, and some of course, were misses, but strong signals emerge when dates from different pivots overlap or nearly so. On chart1, the pivots are these dates: 9/8/92, 8/17/98 and 7/5/01 (basically start, wave 3 and wave 5 on the chart) and their associated $USD values. This produced a 1.0 node out at 2/4/08. This is the largest scale and probably the least accurate. Chart 2 and chart 3 zoom down to the period of early 2005 towards the present. Chart 2 uses the points labeled Start, wave 1 and wave 5 as pivots to produce the time nodes shown. A 1.0 (average basis node) shows up at 2/27/08. Chart 3 uses the corrective waves in the same time frame (also start, wave 1, and wave 5, corrective) and sees a 3/4 node also at 2/27/08 and a 1.0 node at 2/19/08.We have two hits on 2/27/08, but at the very least it looks like there is some feature(s) out there in mid to late February...It's possible the dollar could bottom before then, but there is quite a bit of clustering out there in February...Regards,Mark L.
Dear Mark, Thanks from me and our readers. I have been saying the FEB/MAR 2008 as a final Dollar top or the double top or lower top ( in short final gasp of Dollar Bears) for almost a Year now connecting the timing with the Jewish Holiday Passover, for the lack of other important signposts at that time. Well, If your research confirms it, we can all be even more confident that there is a method to my lunacy ( for predicting this thing way before many of these pivot points existed) and actually without any research, but the type of "RoadMapping' method I have developed for all securities I monitor. Good work and thanks again.

Friday, November 23, 2007

Limits


N QQQQ 49.33 - 49.85
N SPX 1425 (1423)- 1431 (1434)

Dear Readers, While I did not state it this way. Here is the strategy for today. If you feel bullish, buy the low limits. If you feel bearish sell the high limits and if you feel agressive do both. My own bias is not to be bearish today( and it could be wrong(: :)
Good trading
Hi Boris,This is what I am seeing right now...$SPX is right up against the trendline...Mark
How Many Times Can I say. Ask me ( if I did not say ) what is YEN doing and then you will figure yourself what to do. YEN went down , everything went up. Well, YEN is mostly responsible for my good calls. How do I call Yen or Why I do not know, but until I am able to reliably call YEN everything else will follow.

This Close







Dear Readers, seldom we are this close to all lining up for iminnent bottom. Summuation line (blue oscillator -2 or so is a buy signal, this close...) . SPX buy pressure is no more growing and NASDAQ buy pressure looks like will decline from here. This is not a go short time. And if you are short this is a collect the profits time. And the ROADMAP has come within day or so... We can not ask for anything close than this close.
$US is having a huge reversal. It is not up much, but it is up huge from the lows of the low volume trading lows against , almost, every currency in the world. Is this where Dollar corrects most it has corrected last 3 months. I think yes. We could see EURO back to 145-146 range. But this will not be an end. There will be one more final round of torture for our, already sick currency, parents of which ( FED and TREASURY) left it for wolves to eat to the bones.

Thursday, November 22, 2007

Somthing to think about

Dear Readers, before we post the main post for Friday, I would like to note that with all the bad things that happened to the markets last couple weeks, NASDAQ is still way higher than August low point and SPX is not there either. Now , that could change, but considering we have almost no or very few days left in this downdraft (26-27 Nov Max) we may not get there.
The reason is the Q's have an extremely important level of support at 48.25 ( many will remember that this was a crucial resistance going up and now it has showed up as support in more ways than before, due to the configuration of NASDAQ (Good thing we got Waldo out of the shorts, if NASDAQ hods here). Only if this level is clearly broken would i adopt a much more pessimist view of the markets. Also the BKX has almost collapsed and has come very close to as support zone of 84-86... Careful here shorts! Banks USB/BAC/WFC are in a very favorable configurations for a bottom. Weaker banks C/WBC may have more to go on the downside. Gages are still in the buy zone and P/C ratios got way up lately ( not extreme, but even so). With all of these cautions and the seasonably strong period ( month end), I can not help but caution everybody about shorting aggressively here.

Wednesday, November 21, 2007

experiencing power problems




Dear Readers, Looks like YEN is determined to keep the world stock markets off balance and stock investors miserable couple more days ( Nov 26 including holiday?). Well, BKx low 88.66 only 3 points from the target 85.85!

Happy Turkey Day America OF USA




Hi Boris, The pivots for these charts are from the all time high on the $NDX back in 3/23/2000, the low on 5/23/00, and the low on 10/7/02..These charts show why I expect a bear market is a real possibility ....Regards,Mark Lytle

Buy Pressures still high, but




Dear Readers, buy pressures remain high, but market is not performing. Our gages have a built in flexibility to handle these situations. They state, as long as the market keeps going lower, it does not matter that buy signal exists, it will only be actionable when the market turns. So, while you may look for a turn from low limits, if you are already shot, you just stay short. That is how we hung in July to August waterfall. All other comments about dates remain unchanged.
Notes From Marco-Peltier
The credit market is collapsing. Spreads and yields have never been so high in the last 4 years. The last time spread were so high was aug 2003 and the SP was trading some 400 points lower.

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Thanks For Being With Us

Dear Readers, The National SOPITALIST Casino is closed for today. We did not trade again, but some members had and Dear Waldo was a happy man today. Congrats. Nice gain. He did not inform us when he put the position on, but looking for an exit he spoke up and thank god he did. Cause, we were able to warn him about the last resistances in Q's and potential turn in YEN, thus the stock market. Yes, he could have made few more cents buy waiting, but who knew we would get it? who knew that we will be convinced this time it is a real bottom... Nobody Dear Readers would know this for sure. So, the "Laws Of Boris" say that when we hit between 4th and 5th attraction point it is 80 %+ guaranteed that the extreme of the day has been seen. That was enough for me to ask him to make a CACHING! Appreciate all who actively and/or passively participated with us today.

$US Dollar has collapsed against EURO currencies EURO/CHF/GBP and others. I think within next 10 days we are about to witness a spectacular jump in $US Dollar that will not be the end of the decline, but the first sign that the beast in $US Dollar is waking up and will complete the misery within few weeks ( 4-6) . Gold Had a spectacular move up today and that was anticipated too ( see the Gold-Oscillator charted posted couple days ago. Yet, I stand behind everything I said about the inflation protection assets being in the final orgy.

Limits

N QQQQ 49.93 - 50.50 (50.70, 50.90)
N QID 30.96 - 40.68
N SPX 1461 - 1462 ( is a real resistance for this move) all intradat resistances broken.
10:16 ET, so far 50.55 has acted as a s trong resistance, only 5c penetration

13:03 ET, BKX low 89.65. Do we remember 85.85, how far are we? Not very far... After Predicting the demise of this index at 121 ( in Nov 2006! Ha? ) ( Yes, one year ago we predicted top within couple cents) now we think we will hit the low too... By 26th of November? Ce, Bueno, would that be!

14:08 ET, JPY/YEN is killing the market

Dear Waldo, we may have hit the bottom in NASDAQ for today between 49.25 and 49.54 4th and 5th spports. I would collect on some( if you have pletnty) options in your place, Caching!

Buy Pressures Persist







Dear Readers, buy pressures persist(SPX almost washed out), but that is what you expect in the oversold market(: :). Market must prove that it means something buy pushing up and staying there. Well, somehow Nov 26 date comes up as a date where everything is pressured into lows ( stocks, gold , currencies) except JPY perhaps. Interesting. Meanwhile there is a jump up for a day or two here. Anti Dollar moves are in the final orgy, but most of you are adult enough to know that this is where the moves are the most violent. So, take the following dates as a guide ( with an update if when I change my mind). Nov26 everything down(Jpy up, Dollar too?), Dec5 everything up ( dollar down, Jpy down?). Dec20 (everything down, especially GOLD). Let the force be with you.
Dear JOhn, about your YEN muzings. Interesting , Yes the Currency of the country of rising SUN, seems to be sinking lately ( in numbers - inverse of price) , as if it does want to break the lows of the last couple weeks. Levels to watch 107.12 107.77 ( close to the area you point). Good work Dear John
Dear Hopper, For Energy, I would go with the context above, in "all" I include energy as well ( Uraniums as a group, seem like they could spring up, especially if the entire energy complex moves up, group work on them is conducive to another jump). I must caution though, that the context of the orgy belongs to everything Anti-Dollar( GOLD/STOCK/ENERGY/EURO etc). So, Unless you are very fast on you feet, I do not advice jumping in as an investor. I am looking for a $Dollar eventual turn ( Before FEB/MAR) which will kill everything in its way.
Note nothing I say above relates to core inflation protection positions in gold currencies and energy, Even Though , I expect temporary slowdown in inflation as well (core should not accede 15% of your total liquid holdings)

Monday, November 19, 2007

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Dear Readers, The National SOPITALIST Casino is closed for today. We did not trade and anticipated the downdraft to satisfy the need for "YELLOW BRICK ROAD" Roadmap to fulfil it's promise. It is amazing that so far this Roadmap, published 5 months ago has created almost better than 90% correlation with Nasdaq. Marks outlook in previous post fits perfectly into the Roadmaps outlook and I have nothing to add to Marks short term forecast. Thanks to all who actively paticpated and/or passively watched our site today.
Hi Boris, The $NDX Exponential Trendlines are closing in on price, which mimics a symmetric triangle I can see on the intraday charts. The backdrop is a little mixed, $TRIN is suggesting a bottom here, even as Bullish Percents, stocks above their 50 day moving average and the McClellan Oscillators all declined sharply today for almost all indexes. Triangles are usually continuation patterns which would suggest continued weakness, ordinarily. New lows rose to 342 on the $Nasdaq, but that doesn't yet match the maximum of 8/16/07 at 506 new lows.The $SPX stopped falling on support around 1430, and this is a strong support level... Because we have high $TRIN readings, and traditionally before Holidays are bullish periods I would expect a bounce is possible here. The Trendlines and Exponential Time Nodes are basically not suggesting anything but continuation..so probably oversold and holiday conditions will rule here...Regards,Mark Lytle

Limits

N QQQQ 49.85 (49.71, 49.50)- 50.51
N QID 29.75 - 40.84
N SPX 1444 - 1451

Very Anemic Market, Slow Boring Foreign Currency Market even as YEN made one point higher since last Friday. Volume None(almost)
Regarding GOLD the real strong support lies at 770 cash

11:00 ET, Q first limit just hit so is the YEN limit.
11:22 ET, YES we supported on second 49.71 , with exhaustion bar, se the limits up there

11:29 ET. this is not a good time to purchase, just got the exahaustion on the sell side.

13:38 ET, IF this dive does not stop at 49.50, we go 49.12
14:27 ET, 49.50 held with a minor penetration. Bottom?

14:54 ET, Unless Market springs back up, getting the washout?

SPX BUY, NASDAQ Not Sell

Dear Readers, the Pressure gages indicate that NASDAQ is not in the sell , while SPX is in the buy. All in all this bodes well for the market, but it must perform. Looks will not go too far. Things must happen. Market must support at the proper levels and move up, hopefully helped buy YEN, but YEN is at this point working against market even though it could have turned down just now. Let's see...

Friday, November 16, 2007

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Gold is prepared for rebound, but there maybe one more downdraft this week!





Dear Reders, The National SOPITALIST Casino is soon to close for today. We did not trade today, but suggested trade should have made anywhere from 25 to 60c for a trader. We thought YEN would go lower and help the markets and that is what happened. Even as YEN caused us to be mistaken in timing and pricing we still made a reasonably good forecast helping to figure what the markets going to do. Which was it will go higher between the end of yesterday and today. Well, that is exactly what happened. Appreciate everybody that actively participated and that passively watched and/or acted on the information provided. I would just like to mention that if you just bought the low limit and sold at the high( both were hit!!!) you would have made like a bandit...
GOLD and CURRENCY forecasts have worked very well as the $US dollar had a first up week in ages! and GOLD lost 6% of its value after we suggested taking profits at 850-890 levels. Not bad for an "amateur: site, while gurus are falling like BRIC (pan intended)( stock markets, they fell in love with).


Hi Boris, Both indexes flirted with their upper trendline today, where intraday Bollinger bands also sit, and Monday these trendlines are coming down a bit, so it will be interesting to see if the indexes don't get forced downward with them, given that breadth is still negative, and new lows far exceed new highs...Regards,Mark Lytle

Limits


Dear Readers, For Q's watch 51.08 - 51.15 Red Hot Top Area. Intraday limits coming up, 48.80 - 48.70 is the Downside Possibility,( we put this here) not to discriminate the Bears(: : )

N QQQQ 49.57 ( 49.40) - 50.35
49.40 has a good chance holding,
Yen Rerace over?
N QID
N SPX

10:10 ET, Q's smelled the 49.40 and got repelled? And YEN off the retrace? Too bad John is not around to capitalise on this 25c in 10 min.
10:17 ET, 31 c And counting, this would have been enough for one day profit.

Ok let this be a public lesson. We/I would not have traded any trade but the limit at 59.40, cause the first limit did not give market any hesitation/support. After that as market moved about 31c up I would have immediately terminated at least 1/2 of my positions, pocketing the gains. Then the rest would have been at break even or couple cents below it, cause we have the profits. That would survive the second assault on the 49.40, but may not survive the next assault coming. That is how to work the markets. 10:35 ET. Having all that said, today watching YEN and believing it should/has turned up for a day or two could allow some leniency in stop placement and thinking the position as , perhaps , a day position instead of intraday position.

10:44 ET, 12 ET and 16 ET today are pivotal times and we would like to see that YEN and Stocks Market make the UPstanding(WHITE) candles on 4 and 8 hour charts. Longer the think part the better.

12:21 ET, Somebody who thought day were daytrading must take profits now on 3/5ths or all positions. ( right now)
13:44 ET, Stock Market maybe a safe place if you are still long as YEN stopped going up after another retrace to 110.60
14:10 ET, as soon as we stated above market went into dive? Well, I still think Stocks may do well, but I certainly would not want to risk the profits gained today.

Finally Up Day?











Dear Readers, Our ROADMAP ( I wish I would listen to it more) says that bottom is coming around 22-26 Nov. Meanwhile I have been watching YEN for for a short term ( day or two) rallies to develop and that too seems to have changed a thing or two from former behavior. So, Is YEN going down Stocks UP? It seems like the lows came lower than I had expected at 109.75, but I will take it if it lasts. Timing wise, YEN just does not have any more 8hours time slot to make new lows next day or so. If it does, it would have destroyed every aspect of the pattern I am following in price( already) and then in time( if new lows). Buy Pressures are respecatble, but no washout and that keeps the Nov 22-26 low alive for washout. Summation line turned down, not positive. So, best guess is we can hope for a short rally and lower lows next week.


Hi Boris, The only trendline chart that looks interesting tonight is the one labelled "Average Crossover" on the $NDX that has a light blue trendline that may stop the incipient rally that started late today. The other $NDX chart has a trendline I believe to be too high to come into play for tomorrow. Likewise the only $SPX chart worth showing really isn't giving any new information tonight, and we are close to choosing a new pivot cluster for the $SPX to provide new trendlines.Regards,Mark L.


Boris, This is a chart to share with your readers, people new in this business should duplicate it and also create one just like it using $NYSI (the McClellan Oscillator for the $NYA) With the $NYA version, you should see just about the same trendlines if you attempt to find them. It's clear just by looking at Stochastics on this chart that the $NDX is nowhere near a bottom...that would be at earliest a couple weeks away...Also, all of the bottoms in the last 5 years have hit one of the lower purple trendlines on this chart..we're simply not there yet. Note also that the MACD Oscillator is not negative yet, something you would expect at a bottom.This is an important indicator/tool that people should become familiar with in their own trading. People can contact me for questions...Regards,Mark Lytle

Thursday, November 15, 2007

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Dear Readers, The National SOPITALIST Casino is closed for today. We did not trade, some members did. We forecast a down opening with the stronger closing. We got the Down opening down closing. Our forecast was predicated on YEN going lower after initial strength within 16 hours of the market open. Well, looks like YEN chose to do it in the second portion of the 16 hour time period ( we shell see that tomorrow - if YEN indeed stopped rising next 8 hours). If so, we could expect to see markets opening higher tomorrow.

Gold had nowhere to hide and Dollar gained, Both as predicted.
Main problem to my forecast is inconsistency in GOLD / Stocks forecast. If GOLD and EURO currencies ( EURO/CHF/GBP) should go down at least into tomorrow and perhaps into monody then how does the Stock Market go higher and YEN go lower?

My apologies to Mark, As I never looked into my email today. Next Time Mark, let me know via Blog You send me something (: :) Thanks
Comments from Mark E. Peltier:Hello Boris, If you have time to post this, this is what I am watching. BKX broke the trendline yesterday which is what wave 4's do. Clearly wave 4 wasn't finished yesterday but I am sure it is now. Wave 5 should now rally to kissback the broken trendline. While wave 5 could finish at the trendline (probably when it gets up to 100.50 ish), it is also possible to see an early morning spike tomorrow to hit to 102 target and immediately sell off similar to yestarday's action. Regards, Mark
Dear Xerxes,Readers, Yes, thee is a possibility for $US to rally into Nov 26. Now that could explain why the Stock Market may also bottom in that time frame. Stocks hate strong $US. They can only rally when SENIORS are raped with the devaluation of the $US.

Limits

N QQQQ 49.90 ( 49.48, 49.00) - 50.61
N QID 39.59 - 40.74
N SPX 1464 - 1469
How about GOLD friends. Not Gold Like at all Ha? will suffer with currencies next couple days as forecast for a while now.

10:36 ET, So far developing as suggested , early low, late high?
12:32 ET, If Weak Yen Theses should still be correct, then Stronger YEN should not last more than 8 from here ( Correction), Nore should the lows of today 110.34 be violated by much.

13:26 ET, Q's Low limit was hit on YEN's strength, if not violated good chance for a closing rally today.

13:34 ET, Has the train left the station? Apparently not!(14:02)

14:18 ET, Entire day YEN is thrown around the level 110.70. There must be somebody super powerful desperately trying to maintain this price.

13:21 ET, We bounce again from our limit with the Exaushtion bar to boot. Is second time charm?

14:57 ET, My theses about later move higher in stocks was based on the low being made either on this 8 hour bar or next one. This one ends at 4pm so, if I am still correct it will come in the next 8 hours, which can only be played in Futures market. See Limits Update For Q's

15:13 ET, The Q's bounced from the 3rd level support, so far so good.
Good Trading , Possibility exists for YEN to probe one more time at 110.15-110.30 area to finish the pattern it has developed. That could mean on more down draft in stocks or none. 15:31 Looks like we are getting one more touch back by YEN

15:36 ET, Level 5 support for SPX is 1440 ( on 15 min charts)

15:44 ET, Got the Downdraft we expected, no more lows or we are dead

Down Early, higher Later?






Dear Readers, NASDAQ remains on the buy and the SPX is on the sell. How about that for confusion. The summation line is suggesting there could be some more days up before another sell signals from it. Yeah, Just watch YEN my friend and if what YEN does jives with what GAGES say you are golden. Putting this all together I cam up with the title, which was theses Yesterday ( for today ) as well. Nothing new on Currencies GOLD as what was said couple days ago seems to be GOLDEN.

Good Trading

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Thanks For Being With Us











Dear Readers, The National SOPITALIST Casino is closed for today. We traded successfully today, but left even more money at the table. Well, Just remember our second rule of trading ( see previous post (: : ) ). And we said this morning "Looking for Down day"... And a lot of our Excellent participants said the same... Clever Consensus Works!

Hi Boris, Today you can compare what happened today with what we expected last night...The plot labeled "$NDX - Average Crossover" shows price action that was above the projected levels of that trendline for the next day at the close, but it went on to complete at the next trendline higher up, on the chart labeled "$NDX -1.382 Crossover", where it rebounded downward rather nicely. Similarly, we saw the $SPX rebound downward off of the limit at 1492.14 just under the trendline value of 1492.89, shown on the chart "$SPX- 1.272 Crossover". It is currently, at the close today, resting on another trendline who's value is 1466.71 for tomarrow, on the chart la belled "$SPX - Average Crossover". This support trendline may assist a small bounce you are calling for tomarrow, but that said, although the Bullish percents gained some today, the McClellan Oscillators and per cent of stocks over their 50 day moving average fell, meaning overall we are still in a market environment that is getting weaker, not stronger. We should expect to retest the lows of August 16th, so any surprises, should be to the downside...Regards,Mark Lytle