Saturday, June 30, 2007

Lots Of Graphs















Dear Readers, for your interst some familiar and some not so familiar graphs. You see today many Pressure Osciallator Graphs, for the first time. Please look at them and observe how the extreme readings on the AvrgOsciallator (Pink Lines) Readings corresponded to buy and sell signals In price ( Blue Line). There is a good chance here, to compare the SPX and NASDAQ pressure charts with the Oscillator brothers and see if they are speaking the same language... Notice the extreme values of AvrgPressureOscialltor on builders graph. This is an oscillator as stretched to the limits as the string of the slingshot just about to fire, but you need to wait for the fire! Also notice the way the energy took off in March, you see the oscillator extreme value there I hope. Look at uranium chart. When all other energy types, including solar, wind, bio etc, was going up, the uraniums went down ( After March). Are people waking up to the fact that there is no substitute for NUKE, notwithstanding the BS about all other things.
Reits Oscillator has been added, I know Dear Greene likes this one. Very interesting that it also is calling for some kind of a bounce here ( declining for few months now).
Good Trading
QUICK GUIDE, On the oscillators, just eyeball the current AvrgOscillator ( pink line) value to notice if it is in high or low percentile of it's historical values. When such high is spotted the buy could materialise and when such low is spotted the selling could start. Still need to wait for other short term signals to confirm. The Pressure Oscillator ( Yellow, Line ) can be used as one of the short term indicators as well.

Friday, June 29, 2007

limits

N QQQQ 47.63 - 47.86
N GLD 63.20 - 64.67
O USO 49.49 63.34
O ECA 64.54 - 65.66
N SPX 1505.50- 1515.60
O TSX 14114.38 - 13906.11

John said...
1518 ought to stop SPX
6/29/2007 7:02 AM

Jim Taylor, JD said...
SHORT AT 13515 and 2627
JIM
6/29/2007 7:07 AM


10:13 ET INDU hits 13525 and SPX 1518, both 60% retacements (FIB)


John said...
1518 is also about 1.5 standard deviations from the 5 day average price.
6/29/2007 9:19 AM

Jim Taylor, JD said...
Potential Bounce Points:
13399
2601
1502
Jim
6/29/2007 10:13 AM

Sqroot said...
Yep, here it comes...up...
6/29/2007 10:25 AM


GOOD WORK GUYS, I CAN NOW RELAX AND LET YOU LEAD THE PARADE, NICE AND THANKS HELPING ME AND OUR FRIENDS WITH YOUR COMMENTS... BORIS

15:21 ET Dear Readers this market seems to have done the classic bear start. Which is... the markets have made a double top in June 19. Then went down and made double bottom there and then came up 60% only ( 100 % for QQQQ) and gave ground. A new daily print below the low of the last months trading range will signal the beginning of the end...

Jim Taylor, JD said...
COVERED at 13341
JIM
6/29/2007 12:25 PM

Dollar Under Pressure From Inflietion

Dear Readers, Dollar came under some pressure from inflietion ( see vocabulary ) numbers, but it could reverse strongly with further numbers announced today. Watch Carefully.

Dollar continues to be Anders assault, but certainly way above the May lows. I think another leg of move higher is slowly, but surely to develop. We may have couple Weeks of meandering aimlessly though.

Dear Readers, while we are going higher in the Sell Pressure, we are not at the sell yet, by no means, again this does not prevent market from going down, but it sure makes it unlikely for a sizable move down to develop. That is nice information to have, it affords us to wait... I really hope all who read understand this. Market loves patient traders!

Gold is begining to feel it, but still not convinced. $ dollar is still hodling up onto most of recent gains and will gain more next few weeks. Interest rates are perking up a little and while 5.55 10Year Notes is not out of quesion, we would take advantage if it came by buying 25% more of our FIXED INCOME income portfolio. Energy is really the market swinger and goes with it, so as the Market...

NOTE: GroupStrength Table will reappear, as all groups have sufficient samples, Max 5 trading days from now.
Good Trading

Thursday, June 28, 2007

Limits

N QQQQ 46.36 - 47.67
N GLD 63.94 - 64.34
O USO 49.49 63.34
O ECA 64.54 - 65.66
N SPX 1501.65- 1509.73
O TSX 14114.38 - 13906.11

9:57 ET Right from start UTIL/TRAN/INDU are all at important Resistances
10:05 ET Q's edge to the resistance and INDU/UTIL still not able to move up, SPX has strong resistance 1511.40 NYA at resistance 9876.04 RUT stuck
10:09 ET GLD was rejected at 64.34

10:15 ET indices must break highs of last hour if higher move is to come. Some approaching exhaustion bars.

10:22 ET indices unable to show strength, in retreat.

12:35 ET my initial reversal timing for today was 13:45 ( stated yesterday), but I do not see any harm stating that we may have hit the reversal time now , with the exhaustion bar to boot. BE CAREFUL THOUGH NOTHING SAYS THAT THERE IS NOT HIGHER EXHAUSTION BAR COMING

12:50 ET NOTE, INDU at strong resistance 13453 and ~50% retrace, SPX 50% retrace and strong level already indicated 1511.xx , QQQQ ~78% retrace , NY strong resist acne 9899.9 ... etc.

13:03 ET, got the turnaround, If short trail stops immediately

Jim Taylor, JD said...
Hi Boris, HI JD, GOOD TO HEAR FROM YOU
Major Cluster:
Dow: 13457
NAZ: 2613.5
NYSE: 9902.5
N100: 1936
R2K: 841
S&P500: 1510.5
Jim
6/28/2007 10:09 AM


14:13 ET, before FED Frankly, I think this cycle of Pressure Gages will play out fully. That is market will move higher until the Sell Pressure becomes, high. So, the game plan should be that
14:13 ET SHORTS ARE RISKY HERE.

14:33 on FED day, stay away. I do not trade on this kind of day


Jim Taylor, JD said...
Last day of 2nd quarter Friday, DOWN
11 of last 15 for the DOW
Jim
6/28/2007 12:53 PM


Dear Readers, we are now in the upswing from the oversold conditions on the Pressure Gages. Ideally the market should continue until the Sell Pressure reaches high. It is possible though, especially with the weak market, for a sudden drop to materialise within the supposed upswing. If this was to happen today or tomorrow, we would know that the market is really weak and just staged a desperate move up to save itself. We shell see. Long holders should trail the stops carefully and potential shorts, need to observe exhaustion situations for possible weakness. Gold is getting close to a bottom and $ is still holding up. Energy Recovered yesterday, with the market.

Wednesday, June 27, 2007

Limits

N QQQQ 46.46 - 47.16
N GLD 63.35 - 63.88
O USO 49.49 49.92
O ECA 64.54 - 65.66
N SPX 1480.35 - 1494.48
O TSX 14114.38 - 13906.11

10:07 ET SPX and INDU have hit important support levels in their lows. Be careful with shorts here.

Jim Taylor, JD said...
Final 50dma bounce from the NAZ
50dma:2568.04; Low 2560.95; now 20 points higher.
Rally fizzles at 09:30-09:45 PDT
Jim
6/27/2007 7:44 AM



11:20 ET as suggested this market looked ready to go higher. So it is, so it shell be? meanwhile we reaproach the 47.16 My first reseistance second time

Jim Taylor, JD said...
At Resistance:
2588.26
1495.75
50dma: 13357.15
Jim
6/27/2007 9:45 AM


13:16 ET JD had right the seloff between 12 and 13 ET! all hands for JD

For those who maybe confused with 50dma, it means 50day moving average

OK the correction JD predicted was just that, correction in an otherwise up day, which was our overall call for today. I told Dear Danno, that I did not have a real turn down time for today and there is only one ( I see now) at around 13:45 tomorrow. Until then I do not think this market is going to encounter any real problems, which is plenty suggested by the Pressure Instruments as well. You do not go from oversold to overbought in one day. It takes 3-5 days at least. Now the QQQQ levels to watch are 47.56 and 48? as we just passed the second resistance at 47.32

Hooker,6' heels, Vigilantes Back?

Dear John, offers

Thought some of you may be interested in Bill Gross' position.

Well prudence and rating agency standards change with the times, I suppose. What was chaste and AAA years ago may no longer be the case today. Our prim remembrance of Gidget going to Hawaii and hanging out with the beach boys seems to have been replaced in this case with an image of Heidi Fleiss setting up a floating brothel in Beverly Hills. AAA? You were wooed Mr. Moody’s and Mr. Poor’s by the makeup, those six-inch hooker heels, and a “tramp stamp.” Many of these good looking girls are not high-class assets worth 100 cents on the dollar. And sorry Ben, but derivatives are a two-edged sword. Yes, they diversify risk and direct it away from the banking system into the eventual hands of unknown buyers, but they multiply leverage like the Andromeda strain. When interest rates go up, the Petri dish turns from a benign experiment in financial engineering to a destructive virus because the cost of that leverage ultimately reduces the price of assets. Houses anyone?


Probably getting close to "Buy time"



Dear John, I like Bill, I tried to learn a lot from him, not often very successfully. Nor, do I think he is a great market timer, which my record will show to be far superior on his interest rate predictions. Still, I think he is a giant for many reasons. At least once previously he has been able to tell speak the truth when he said that "inflation was a lie". It seems like his comfortable position at PIMPO ( sorry meant PIMCO) was a bit at risk and he stopped and/or was stopped ha...

And also, did he borrow my line on HOOKER. You will be judge.

In my comments to JC few months ago I said "Market is like a good HOOKER showing the legs until all innocent are trapped. That is I suggested the reason it goes up slowly making records every day, so that the "attraction is bigger" as the leg gets partially unravelled till the lady is seen naked.
Good To hear from and all the jokes apart. Bill is finally speaking his mind again. Welcome back to Bill Gross, are vigilantes finally back
Good Trading

Getting Oversold, But Not Done





Dear Readers, Charts today indicate that Market is getting oversold, but there maybe a day or two on the downside left. On SPX pressure chart note the CYAN line rising and getting closer to levels where buy signals maybe generated. On the EARLYBREAKERS/LATESTAYERS summation chart you see that the same Yellow line that gave us a sell signal ( Dear DXB asked how did I know - this is how I/you know ) is now getting one of the lowest we have seen on this graph, telling us we could be very close to bounce up. Gold Oscillator on the other hand tells us, that gold is hurting, but there maybe some more hurt for it. Yet it is getting close to buy for GOLD. $Dollar is not giving up an inch and Energy took a big hit yesterday. As we often said, ENERGY is the market today and Market is the ENERGY. Interest rates up yesterday, but lower form last weeks highs. Good Trading

Tuesday, June 26, 2007

Limits(Sorry being late)

N QQQQ 47.05 - 47.46
N GLD 63.82 - 64.50
O USO 49.49 49.92
O ECA 64.54 - 65.66
N SPX 1495.11 - 1509.21
O TSX 14114.38 - 13906.11

Good Trading

Jim Taylor, JD said...
Hi Boris, Hi JD...
Short at 2588.5 and 13399.
Yesterday's lows at 12:15 PDT were bounces off the 50dmas for the NAZ and the Dow:13347.5 and 2567.19.
S&P500 50dma: 1507.41 Confirms DT
Looking for re-test of 50dmas by 10:00 PDT
Jim
6/26/2007 7:25 AM


Jim Taylor, JD said...
BUNGIE DOW:
ST BOUNCE off 50dma and 13341
RE SHORT at 11:00 PDT
JIM
6/26/2007 8:36 AM

Market In Flux



Dear Readers, Markets are in flux. On one hand we have Buy Pressure increasing indicating a turnaround is near to the upside on the other hand ETFS oscillator reading indicates we are going down and the Average Buy Pressure is low indicating a down turn in the intermediate horizon. CVX ( a stable company ) had 4-5 days of 1.5% move aimlessly up and down. That is how bad it is. But what else do we expect. This is make or break time for the market and it does not know what to do. Stay calm. We know one thing we are not long term buyers at this point, but will use short term signals to go long or short at our limit points. If they prove durable we stay with these positions else we liquidate them. that is very simple as it should be. We must also remember our "Yellow Brick Road" outline which calls for August low ( it could be July or Sept also. We are happy so far, for FIXED income investors. Whom we put into short term safe securities at the highest, so far, rates. Currencies are volatile, but the $ uptrend called since May has not been broken at all. Gold Meandering as suggested in April, but be ready. Wake up call may come in gold relatively soon.
Good Trading

Monday, June 25, 2007

Limits

N QQQQ 46.63 - 47.74
N GLD 64.12 - 64.59
GLD Bounces at Very strong daily Support aournd 640.10
O USO 49.49 49.92
O ECA 64.54 - 65.66
N SPX 1490.51 - 1513.25
O TSX 14114.38 - 13906.11

Good Trading

10:37 ET DJI, bouncing strong support at 13342.92
10:43 ET QID, bouncing strong resistance at 47.25
11:12 ET indices approach resistances SPX,INDU,UTIL NYA etc.


Jim Taylor, JD said...
Hi Boris,
Major Cluster:
UP WAVE ENDS at 09:15
Jim
6/25/2007 8:42 AM


12:29 ET The SPX topped within 1 point from our high limit and QQQQ 3c from the same. Not bad when you think about it...

14:12 ET Both Of us JD and myself told you we were aproaching the resistance, top and that is exactly what hapenned. Good Call JD. Now Markets have turned down.

Sunday, June 24, 2007

Vocabulary

Dear Reader, Remember this is one persons view of the world, if you have your own go ahead and express it, this is a free country, still.

Inflietion - Infliete,v Inflation that is a lie
Core Inflietion - For dead people only, they consume no gas or food forever
Freedom Fighters - First our finest and bravest, then those to tell Government, "keep you hands off our $reedom"
Sopitalism - Socialism Only For Rich ( Degenerated Capitalism )
Anti-Sopitalism - Honest Capitalism. FIAT money system all but eliminates HONEST CAPITALISM and makes it look more like BOLSHEVISM
CEO - Chief Executions Officer, explains high Salary
H1 Visa - Importing temporary foreign slaves, I was once...
Outsourcing - Finding foreign slaves
Open Borders - Allowed illegal slave trafficking
Trade deficit - Enhance earnings of multinational corporations, suppressing American wages, manna from haven for Financials ( $ recycling )
Fair Trade - It is fair when Autoworker in detroit loses job to outsourcing, but it is Unfair when Government employee loses job, like Treasury Secretary.
private capital - Buy Healthy Companies,make them sick - fees/dividends, Sell them back to stupid investors, If/when not successful go PUBLIC yourself . You are guaranteed FED will print money to save you if all else fails
liquidity - Corporations buy their shares, infliete E/P ratios, until the hallucinating liquid ( $ depression) stops working
Down Iron Curtain - With Helpful West Propaganda in 1972, 18 Fearless Georgian Families, defeated evil empire by demanding to open, already rotting USSR with s(t)inking RUBLE, borders for emigration to Israel. Morale, Do not debase $ anymore
China, country where COMMUNISTS slaved billions, now they are sharing the slaves with SOPITALISTS, if not true, let them raise RANMINBI ( their currency) ASAP.
Russia, country where not a lot has changed, except COMMUNISTS now call themselves CAP(SOP)ITALISTS, all it took was to push the drunk Boris Yelzin on top of the tank.
USA elections, process where both parties hide their tacit support for SOPITALISTS. Who opened NAFTA? Yes. Now you know, that while Washington parties all the time, there is no party for you.
Money. Our Money that is what DEMS/REPS really fight for
Tax Cuts, Code word(euphemism) for redistributing wealth to already rich. When presented as best for economy, ask when was it taxes were cut with simultaneous expense cuts? Never...


Dear Readers, I expect you to use your best imagination and continue enlarge this project called Vocabulary.

In Plain English, tax raise on poor - Average American Consumer - How to shut up the demagogues - It Is The $Dollar Stupid!

Dear Readers, while dividend and income taxes went down in general the actual tax burden of low income earners went up. Ha... Now you really hit the wall Boris... What are you talking about? Ok, just listen, I do not hit the wall so often. So, here it goes. Average family leaves about $4000-5000 at the pump. If that is taxed At about 20-30% ( I think I am low balling this) then we get average tax payment of around ~$1200 a year. which means that if gasoline prices tripled last 5 years. We now pay about ~$800 extra for gas tax( just tax ha...). Now, rich person could not care less about $800 a year, but for a median income earner this has taken back all the tax benefits the earned income tax deduction gave them! I hope you get that. "Read My Leeps" taxes have been raised. No wonder REPS like OIL companies, their tax collectors, got that?. I do not think DEMS will dare lowering these taxes, or they will run even higher deficits, remember politicians love money.. Now you can try and do the math on other things ( local taxes, insurance , food etc.) I will not bother. This is enough. During the same time median earnings stagnated while earnings of the Rich ( you know who they are) rose. SOPITALISTS ( see vocabulary ) will tell government should not be in the wealth redistribution. So, why would not it stop? Did you ask? Yes, my dear reader it all starts when the $ gets destroyed. All that fiat, causes the run up in prices, thus the redistribution o f wealth. Do not get me wrong. I do not think DEMS are any less of free spenders... Just giving you facts. No wonder little guy does not believe prosperity is here... So, when another bozo and/or demagogue ( you know who you are) comes up on television telling you tax reductions cause the good economy. Ask, first who's economy and then ask has he/she ever seen the tax reduction without deficit spending?. Can he/she imagine how not so spectacular that kind of tax reduction looks compared to this one. I tell it would look marvelous in the long run, cause it will cause the efficiencies without INFLIETION ( in rich owned assets) ( see new vocabulary)... And one more thing. When they talk about American consumer being alive and well ask which consumer? cause, talking about average American consumer is like talking about me and Shak having a 7 foot average height. You know what I mean, I am not that tall, average sure looks great thanks to Oneal
Good Trading

Where Next?


Dear Readers, Please note on this table that some things are going down ( means their oscillators are heading up in buy pressure, that is the way it works right?, the pressure, normalized in this case, is a contrary indicator) and very few things are going up, Like WATER. Some more are ready to go UP, but their respective oscillators need to drop below 70-75 before we will view them as going up, meanwhile they keep going down. That includes BUILDERS, LANDTELCO, NEWSPAPERS, URANIUMS. On the Down slope are: CHINA and BRAZIL ( we warned about them and they seem to have started breaking), GENERIC drugs, FOOD, EXCHANGE stocks, TIMBER, GOLD ( note, the low readings of oscillator occured couple months ago, not seen here)and ETFS ( somewhat proxy for stocks ). Your thoughts are appreciated, also if you have gruops you like covered, suggest the group name and stocks in the group.
Good Trading

In Plain English, For Beginners

Dear Readers, our first commandment here is "Thou Shalt Not Lose Money". This is very simple rule, but requires attention. Example, you have $100. You lose $50 and that means you lost 50% of your money. Now when you go back to win the loss you must go from $50 to $100 again and that is Dear Readers a 100% gain on your money. Believe me, it is much harder to make 100% than make 50%. So, by losing some money we tend to make doubly hard on ourselves to make it back. Now, for a working age people this may not be so difficult as their current income will help them, but for retirees this is almost a disaster as they can not count on new income to offset the losses. Nor is the long term up record of the stock market use to them, cuase they do not have 20years to wait market to return to old highs ( SPX&NASDAQ are still below 2000 levels...). When you read most of the time, that we talk what not invest in, you must realise where our priorities are. We do not lose money, means we are making it... Period. So, where is the risk high today. Of course, in the stock market. Markets are already up 13% or so on the year. Probability of market making you 20% or so in a given year is less than 10%. So, why not put your money into something safe, like the treasuries of all kinds ( search "Fixed Income" On this site) and enjoy the income. Just do not make investments long term. Under 2-3 years please.

Friday, June 22, 2007

Limits New Copy AT The Front

Dear Readers, Today's Limits
O - not updated, N - updated.
N QQQQ 47.36 - 47.87

12:09 ET So what was the low so far today? Yes, 47.36 exactly!
Break this one and we go to 47.23 and 47.02 and even lower 46.72 and if we go crazy we shell see 46.35! !


12:31 ET Exhaustion bar, but if broken watch out below 47.23

Jim Taylor, JD said...
S&P 500 at support: 1501.56
Jim
6/22/2007 10:09 AM


Jim Taylor, JD said...
S&P 500 at support: 1501.56
Jim
6/22/2007 10:09 AM



N GLD 64.34 - 64.94
O USO 49.49 49.92
O ECA 64.54 - 65.66
N SPX 1511.51 - 1523.55
O TSX 14114.38 - 13906.11
Good Trading

Currenicies In Retreat

Dear Readers, Currencies are in retreat and $ is fighting back to continue its momentum up started in May ( we told you so here long time about that...) .
CHF/JPY hit an important 100.76 spread level. GBP/CHF hit an important level around 2.475 or so. GBP hit almost 2.00. CHF corrected 50 % of the last decline. All very important milestones today. I think we are close the end of GBP rally and end of ENERGY rally. Having no Catrina and OPEC supporting them. The bulls have tried the NIGERIA card repeatedly. When those Nigerians stop the "strike". Energy could fall like a rock and take COMMODITY/OIL currencies with it.
Good Trading

Limits

Dear Readers, Today's Limits
O - not updated, N - updated.
N QQQQ 47.36 - 47.87

12:09 ET So what was the low so far today? Yes, 47.36 exactly!
Break this one and we go to 47.23 and 47.02 and even lower 46.72 and if we go crazy we shell see 46.35! !


12:31 ET Exhaustion bar, but if broken watch out below 47.23

Jim Taylor, JD said...
S&P 500 at support: 1501.56
Jim
6/22/2007 10:09 AM


N GLD 64.34 - 64.94
O USO 49.49 49.92
O ECA 64.54 - 65.66
N SPX 1511.51 - 1523.55
O TSX 14114.38 - 13906.11
Good Trading

In Plain English, For Beginners

Dear Readers, Another good rule you need to remember is this. Never trust anybody from any financial institution, without checking and double checking the proposals they give you. If you do not understand risk walk away, unless you got couple different opinions. Look nobody is infallible ( remember Sir Allen telling you to load up on Adjastables ? if you can not trust him... ), but you do not want to trust a newly minted salesperson (loan officer, wow!) from a now defunct company like ( new century ). You should know that he/she does not understand what they are doing, technically. They just want you to sign on the dotted line. Who cares if you become "subprime". Government may come on your side, but too late, agencies that monitor the crooks should have known, what I could see, that is these charlatans calling Older People to sign them up on Loans they did not need or understand. But they were asleep at the switch, money was flowing freely, why bother. Well, you must care. This is your life. Many of these people hardly read, but they can sure talk. These are kind of things you are facing. Please get as many opinions as you can. Write to me, I will try to help you for what it is worth.
Good Trading

Where are we?



Dear Readers Market Pressure readings for today.
No Buy, No Sell Pressure, nobody knows what to do. The standoff, it will pass, just wait. Average Pressure is low, must rise at some point, means selloff. Having no following to a Strong day down couple days ago, though is not sign of an immediate breakdown. JPY is at a very strong support 124, but it has screwed all the support points before... GBP/CHF spread seems to have topped at 2.4750 area, are Swiss having second thoughts. GBP heavy all the way to 2.0 - 2.01, but it could stop just here and today 1.9970. Gold, more downside, before I want to buy. Interest rates rising again? Stocks have no friend in bonds anymore... Energy is the key, when they falter the market will.
Good Trading

BlackStone BS or TOOOOOOP

Dear Readers, think about it, here is a company that is supposed to be taking the companies private, making them better and then bringing them back at IPO's. Instead they are going private. Ironic Ha, do they know something? Perhaps they do not believe the market in the future will be better? Remember GS going private late 1999, just before the market collapse after 4-5 months. Who are these guys kidding? FORTIS, BLACKSTONE, KKR..., They are not finding BOZOS any more Dear P.T. Barnum rest easy in you grave. BS ( their stock symbols that is or are these guys literally shouting from the rooftops TOOOOOOOOOP!) indeed...
One thing for sure, they are fat with management fees and dividends they paid to themselves, mostly and Lowering the Dividend taxes was not accidental, do not you think so? Who do you think runs or enjoyed the fruits of these PRIVATE CAPITAL guys? Yes Washington Insiders, some of them in the cabinet as late couple years ago. Dear Austin, I would love to discuss. So, Who cares now, you next BOZO ( I hope not my readers) will be holding their hack job in form of BS stock hahahaha.... they operate under the assumption of "BOZO in hand is better than two BOZOS" waiting to come.
Good Trading

Thursday, June 21, 2007

Crude Oil. Spectacular Failure?

Dear Readers, I could not sleep! Crude Oil. Spectacular Long opportunity or spectacular failure?

Look at the crude OIL chart. It has acceded the high of 4/2/2007 and closed promptly lower. I do not know about you, but I would be shorting this market or at least protecting my A... Cause this could be mother of all failures and considering cyclical high I expect in Crude...

Please be careful

Good Trading

Hi, To JD, Man of Fewer Words

Dear Readers, this is just to show our gratitude to a "man of fewer words" on this site. JD. He consistently provides excellent ideas and timing for market moves and speaks even less words than I do. Well ( : : ) forgive me, I have a job. Must keep the site alive, but seriously. All the best and our deepest thanks to JD.
Good Trading

Limits

Dear Readers, Today's Limits
O - not updated, N - updated.
N QQQQ 46.97 - 47.74
N GLD 65.22 - 64.44 ( 64.30, 64.00)
GOLD in FREE FALL , somebody has almost called me "gold bug" yesterday
O USO 49.49 49.92
N ECA 64.54 - 65.66 ( 65.90)
Did I ever tell Danno, what the next Yearly high limit?
N SPX 1505.00 - 1519.80
N TSX 14114.38 - 13906.11
Good Trading

Jim Taylor, JD said...
Hi Boris,
DOW getting Temporary Bounce off 13456; 50 DMA: 13301.6 _187.82
50 DMA's
NAZ: 2561.57 -38.39
S&P500: 1504.50 -8.34
50DMA's by Friday
Jim
6/21/2007 6:55 AM



Jim Taylor, JD said...
S&P500 Bounced off 50DMA
Bounce is OVER
Jim
6/21/2007 7:35 AM


Jim Taylor, JD said...
BOUNCE OFF 13456 ENDS at 09:40
JIM
6/21/2007 9:06 AM

In Plain English, For Beginners

Dear investor. The investment world is not a win win world. Please, Please internalize a very simple truth. Your Gain is somebodies loss and vice verse. So, do not take advice from companies, who make most of money by trading against you. That includes almost all major financial institutions. Their advice is directed for their own good not yours.

Like the energy conservation ( Einstein said so) there is a money conservation principle. Which prevents for us to all gain at once.

Stay out of risky investments and keep your money safe and sound. The longer term outlook favors gradual and relentless rise in interest rates. For tactical investments in FIXED Income, search "Fixed income" on this site.

Let us discuss the thesis above before we go further. Or shoot any other question you like.

Good Investing

Major Indices, where are they






Dear Dave, this is for your interest and just so that everybody is happy, I have included many other indices here, besides RUT/ER2. Note the next higher level resistances, how close they are from here. Or how far the could be if the market takes dive?
Your reactions are appreciated. Doe you people like this chart. Would you like to have it come, at least, once a week?.
Also included the Gold Oscillator here, Dear H likes this very much. Also included is GroupStrength chart. Look at how the newspapers and builder ( DOGS could ready to bounce, but do not jump the gun. Oscillator musts come back down below 70).

Please note the lowest SELLPRESSURE on SPX pressure chart. The sell off was more vicious than it looked on the surface ha....
Ok Enjoy.
Good Trading

Save Social Security,Fixed Income

Dear Readers, especially retirees and those who just want to see this problem solved. While ago I suggested a market solution to Social Security. See the article under the same name by searching "Social Security" on this site. By making these kind of solutions or something more appropriate/acceptable to those who received and are to receive soon SS, we can make sure that no more is SS used for a political football among the DEMS and REPS. We can make sure that everybody knows how much their share is worth and how much is not ( unfortunately for very young this will not work). There will be no spending of the "trust" money, which is not a trust, but on budget item helping to make budget look good. Just like the Inflietaion ( you learned this word by now - Inflation Lie) helps to make the current/future liabilities good.

Well, here is what I think you, interested parties should do. Demand from your congressperson that SS is solvent and without strings attached ( no goodies for wall street, or anybody else, this time, just your interest). Keep doing so, until these guys in Washington understand that the game is over, they must part with our money. Tell AARP to worry less about good deals on Carnival Cruse and concentrate what matters most... our social (in)security.

Now for those depending on current income. Please note that we have advised to invest the moneys in short term Government Securities GNMA/2-5Y NOTES/CD's, etc... when we saw the rates reach 5.25-5.35 range on 10YR Notes. 50% of the "new", not invested money, dedicated for FIXED INCOME was supposed to have been invested at those levels. Please watch for the next events for 50% of the rest of this money to be invested.

Good Trading

Wednesday, June 20, 2007

Dear DXB, How DId I know

Dear DXB, I have answered this question in the POST below GOLD .... etc. You see, I stated that I put up today the chart only for second time. This is a total new+old breakouts together and it was showing the turnaround just like before last big decline. Look at that chart in my post "it could happen". You could/will be able to make same statement looking at that chart. Once that turnaround is made by the old and new leaders ( sum) turning down. Watch out and immediately or it could go away. You will see that every time the turnaround took place it was an immediate collapse or another meandering up/sideways. Just looking at the chart Dear DXB.
Good Night

What Sir Allen Fears Most

Dear Readers, Apparently the thing that Allen Greenspan fears most is this. The results of inequity in USA and world... Now that is not me... Dear Austin. That is Sir Allen himself. Who freely printed money to create the same....

INEQUITY

It takes one to know one...

Something to take home for tonight.

GOLD/STOCKS/BONDS doooown

At least for today, Dear Readers the A's of "ASSETS" are getting kicked off. That includes GOLD/STOCKS/BOND, HAHA... when was the last time these three went down together? Is the liquid leaking from the liquidity tank of world ECONOMIES?

Please understand my initial hesitation this morning. The markets have performed an incredible obfuscation. Most of the things were in the middle. Of course from here any direction was possible. But the chart of total( old + new ) breakouts was looking tired and that was giving away the secret. That is why I posted this chart today, for second time ever, to indicate that something bad was possibly in cards and it should happen quickly or not. Well it did. Gold losing altitude had only reinforced my thinking that we would see the leak in the liquidity machine...

SOPITAL-Easy Money-What's Wrong?

Well nothing if you are the one distributing it. That means bank, financial institution or the tax recipient, politician. Easy money means more transactions and more poor people working harder to keep their head above the water as everything gets expensive for them to buy. Sadly easy money is like throwing the peace of meat to pack of wolves instead of dividing it equally.

In short, Easy money is a form of slavery. Practiced on the weakest in the society. Pensioners - for whom money does not buy what it used to and he/she is not working. SS gets adjusted with inflietion, yes you read correct this is a new word, look it up. It means inflation that is a LIE. Young, who find it hard to get money for education and slave away for money years after graduation of higher education. Poor - who, by definition, are not first to touch the "NEW MONEY" as it must trickle down to them, which invariably causes them to be the last suckers, SUBPRIME anybody, and how about millions still suffering the .COM debacle, while wall street quickly found another .OIL.

Yes pure and simple. No wonder wise people of the past called the Money the source of all evil. How ridiculous to ridicule the Countries/systems with managed economies, which, by the way do not exist any more ( you want to know why - easy money... you needed 300 Rubles to buy pair of jeans when official Ruble was on par with $US?), when we are the most managed people on the earth. We are doing very similar things with our own population as the CORRUPT communists did to their own. We know how it ended. Now this scheme has a chance until there are no more large number of New Suckers left ( Yes, Dear P.T. Barnum, the end is closer after 3 Billion Asians joined the ranks). So, the only question is when...

Ok, somebody asked the question. And that is the answer. Easy Money and current way of distributing it is totally corrupt and leads to modern day slavery.
So, what is SOPITAL ? SOPTIAL is also new word, look it up. It means Socialism for Rich. Yes, I know what you think SOPITAL/CAPITAL, Yes Marks knew what he was talking about. He just had a wrong solution - COMMUNISM. He could not understand that it is not the name or ideology that matters, it is how the wealth is created and distributed and COMMUNISM, at least, in the form it degenerated to, which is perhaps the faith of any system, was not a solution.

I am not proposing any solutions to any of these. I am just stating facts and trying to help you understand how things work. Then I want to teach you how to fight for your part of the "peace of meat" thrown to wolves. I hope you are ready, cause nobody will do it for you. You need to get educated. I will, from now on, have the staff for starting investors, so that they are not overwhelmed by the highly technical trading mambo jumbo one can find on our site.

Good Slaving, if you do not understand this.

I wish all the best to Dear Austin, I hope to discuss with him the same things when he/I are both on concentrated on the subject. Nevertheless, let me give you examples of what I am talking about. It is said that in the forthcoming book by "maestro" Allen Greenspan, he states that he purposely obfuscated the things for congressman not to understand what he was talking about. This is not direct text, but do you have any doubts about this? Did you ever hear him speak? Is this how you want your life to be directed. So that the most powerful financial man in the country speaks to you in obfuscation. Why do we need this man anyway. Why we can not we just increase the money in direct proportion to our own population and give everybody his/her share and then tax that equitably. Cause all the intermediaries Banks and financial institutions will lose the inter mediation fees and the control of the timing of the things got that? What a loss to somebody... And how about the Politicians, see how hard they have to work now collecting money for their constituency? Who wants that. They would rather take from the top by allocating the money, which, yes, you guessed, trickles to you... via bridge to nowhere. We will talk of some other examples later.

Jim Taylor, JD said...
Covered at:
Bounce Point:
2613.76
13572.25
Jim
6/20/2007 11:51 AM

British Pound, SOROS or DOUBLE

Time to break BOE Bank Of England )again ? SOROS or DOUBLE

Now, to make sure you understand our credentials. See the article at http://www.safehaven.com "biggest bank heist". BKX index is in doldrums since FEB 2007...

Dear Readers, This currency, which we, said was just about dead around 2.000 has recovered a lot of its loss from 1.96. Of all the currencies supported by carry-trade, this one, looks as the most speculative.
The reason is the confluence of the following manias.

OIL mania, pure speculation, every utterance
----of Nigeria pushes OIL, petroPound higher
----We all know how "clean" those guys are...
Housing Mania, easy JAPAN,USA,SWISS
----money flooding the world
Financial Mania, Same easy money, trapped
----investors, buying anything with YIELD.
M&A Mania,PRIVATE capital, they will go
----public ( how ironic) or to courts soon.


When all of these manias break and that may happen very soon. British Pound will be the hardest to fall please reread "brutish death of british pound" article for the high limit risk.

Limits



Dear Readers JAWS are still open, but they are not very wide...

O - not updated, N - updated.
N QQQQ 47.42 - 47.96
N GLD 64.96 - 65.34
O USO 49.49 49.92
O ECA 65.14 - 65.87
N SPX 1529.37 - 1540.51
O TSX 14042.38 - 13769.11
Good Trading

Charts Are Comming, sorry I am late

Jim Taylor, JD said...
Looking for re-test of lows at 09:45 PDT
Jim
6/20/2007 8:59 AM

It could happen anyway


Dear Readers, Gold Just broke, pretty bad. Not the end of the world, but if it keeps going down, it may indicate that world is running short on liquidity. Do not get sucked in on the long sides and watch below downside could be surprising and hard. If it comes, it must come today. There is not much time. Good Trading. Usually it hard to see the Oscillator come from high values and go back to high values, look at high value readings on DJI/SPX/NDX100 around 10 days ago.
Good Trading
While you wait. This chart depicts the total population of the earlybreaker stocks and the oldstayer stocks ( ones that broke up while ago ). When the total sum turns down it is usually bad. Here we are attempting to do it from somewhat lower levels. I am not sure what to make of it, but considering relatively high oscillator readings I am hesitant to make a call today, unlike a baseball umpire I do not have to.

No, The Sell May Have To Wait



Dear Readers, looking at the oscillator values and averages at the EXCEL table, one can clearly see that not too many markets are in the sell area. Only three may qualify as such, but we may want to see actual weakness before selling. These Markets are CHINA BRAZIL and GENERIC Drugs. So are the BRICs sell? Use your judgment. The best way is to wait for these oscillators to start heading up above 30% readings again. On the Buy side, surprise, surprise... NEWSPAPERS the DOGS of the year ). Again, need to wait for them to go up and down below 70% before looking to buy. BUILDERS ( another DOG ) and PIPELINES ( we loved them forever ) are close, but not there yet. Notice TIMBER, just crossed over 30% from below.
Good Trading.
Make sure you look at the trend. For Example Currencies are in the middle but heading up into oscillator readings, which means in time they will create a buy signal, but for now they are coming out of the lower values, which implies a sort of a rally for $ dollar at this stage. Same with GOLD it is heading higher and could create a buy signal, but it may have to sell first as that signal is generated. Please use these signals in conjunction with a longer term trend indicators, such as 20 day average or such. These are swing level signals cycling on average 8 days. You also want to amplify these signals with daily limits given on this site or your own.

TIP: anticipate moves, to do so just look for an oscillator reading 10 days ago. Let us say it is 0.10 ( low value). If the market is moving up today it will create another low value ( say 0.14). So replacing one low value with another will not change the average oscillator value... Now you are anticipating where the oscillator(average) is heading, which is what you want for figuring out how the oscillators will look tomorrow. Up moves mostly create the low daily readings and down moves create high (close to 1) readings and you need to compare that with the single oscillator value 10 days(readings) ago, cause that is value that will be replaced in the average...

Tuesday, June 19, 2007

Limits

O - not updated, N - updated.
N QQQQ 47.45 - 47.90
N GLD 66.89 - 65.10
O USO 49.49 49.92
N ECA 65.14 - 65.87
O SPX 1531.95 - 1537.51
O TSX 14042.38 - 13769.11

Jim Taylor, JD said...
At 7:17 PDT:
the NAZ hit STL at support:2613.76
(Low:2612.42)
Looking to Reshort at 9:18 PDT
Relative weakness of NAZ suggests re-test of lows.
Jim
6/19/2007 7:49 AM

Dog Days Of Summer?



Dear Readers Time For DOGS ( close to 1 ) to shine. Look at the groups and you will see that the DOGS have reasonable prospoects, while the leaders ( close to 0 ) look bad. As noted before, we prefer to have more distribution days than one we had so far. While this does not prevent the downturn to materialze, usually we have three or more.
Good Trading

Monday, June 18, 2007

Limits

O - not updated, N - updated.
N QQQQ 47.59 - 48.00
N GLD 64.79 - 65.37
O USO 49.49 49.92
N ECA 64.87 - 66.10
N SPX 1531.95 - 1537.51
O TSX 14042.38 - 13769.11
Please Note, main post groupstrength, that very few groups have high oscillator numbers. Most are approaching SELL

Jim Taylor, JD said...
Indexes stumbling at Major Cluster:

Naz 2626.56
DOW 13630.56
S&P500 1530.76

Support at:
1521, 2613.76
13572.25
Tuesday, Thursday Strong;Wednesday, Friday Weak; Overall a WEAK WEEK
JIM
6/18/2007 9:31 AM


Jim Taylor, JD said...
UP WAVE ends by 10:36 PDT
Resistance:
1540.56
2639.39
13689
Jim
6/18/2007 9:57 AM


Jim Taylor, JD said...
NDX100 at Resistance: 1947.01
Jim
6/18/2007 10:22 AM


OK, I know it could be boring to trade/watch this kind of a market. Nothing doing entire day. less than 0.2% move on either side. Well, do not be fooled. These kind of days are the days when you make preparations to make money. This day looks like a nice distribution day ENJOY IT.

Get Ready




Dear Readers, Current Pressure Instrument showings indicate an approach of the sell, but, we would like to have couple days of consolidation/distribution ( the more the better). We can not rule out a move higher either. So, this will be a touch and go. For today, anything could happen, this could be too early to make decisions. One thing to watch is JPYen. It is finding some support here, a bit below 124 which is our point of support(resistance). Gold Behaves very skittish every time JPY rebounds from there. I believe the GOLD and STOCKS have become one... almost and count in ENERGY and high yield/commodity currencies and everything. They all want to feed on JPY. So watch it carefully. This spring is stretched too thin and one day it is bound to explode into every speculators face. Interest rates may have or are close to topping for a while. Dollar is catching the breath for another move up that could take few days of sideways.

Friday, June 15, 2007

Fixing Fixed Income

Dear Readers, So far so good with our fixed income moves, we advised that have fixed income investments to allocate, purchase 50% of planned purchases as the 10Yr notes hit near 5.25 and 5.35 respectively ( first and second resistance levels for this year.) Third 25% purchase would have been triggered at 5.55, but did not happen yet. We may find other way to do those purchases, just stick with me and we find an appropriate time.
Good Trading

Limits

O - not updated, N - updated.
N QQQQ 47.59 - 48.00
O GLD 64.18 - 64.81
O USO 49.49 49.92
O ECA 61.81 - 64.69
O SPX 1527.95 - 1510.96
O TSX 14042.38 - 13769.11
Jim Taylor, JD said...
SHORT AT 2626.56 NAZ +27.15 (51.25 Squared)
STL at 10:10 PDT
6/15/2007 6:55 AM

Jim Taylor, JD said...
DOW WALL 13689 117 Squared
Jim
6/15/2007 7:39 AM


When We anticipate the moves ahead, there is precious little to say in times like this just lay back and enjoy the scenery before the sell action comes in.

Jim Taylor, JD said...
Wilshire 5000 Resistance 15500.25
Possible Double Bottom at : 10:32 PDT and 11:22 PDT
Jim
6/15/2007 9:37 AM


This rally is what the doctor ordered to put the pressure oscillators into SELL mode. We may need couple days though and more days it takes to do so better the PRODUCT - "SELL-SIGNAL" will be

Entering The Sell Countdown




Dear Readers, as we suggested couple days of up-sideways move would enter us into the SELL the market countdown 1-4 days of distribution. Well, we are there and starting to count. Look at the gages and you will see what I mean. You know by now how to read these charts. If not, please ask. $ dollar is on rampage as predicted... Gold is in retreat as predicted and Interest Rates have not topped yet but we are starting signs of the top. Energy has moved with the market, cause the market is the energy these days ( 10/11 %) and all profits and moves are there, so the hopeful hang strong on their darlings. They will go with the market. For now though the group strength indicates otherwise, so wait for the countdown and monitor energy/altenergy/cleanpower groups for signs of weakness. Good Trading

Thursday, June 14, 2007

Group Strength


Dear Readers, here is the group strength. These strength/pressure oscillators are derived for all groups listed. Some of these should be pretty clear and some are not. Ignore those for now. The oscillator values are 0-1 ( averages above outside 0.3-0.7 work better that is why history is important). Near One means buy and near 0 means sell. If you are interested in some group and it's historical pressure readings, please email me and I will send you an EXCEL file for that group. Some of these groups may have over 6 months history and some less. Good Trading
Please, note, these pressure oscialltor values are not a pressure (sell or buy). But it is a buy pressure devided by sum of both pressures( sell and buy). That is why it is a normalized oscillator, unlike the absolute values depicted in main posts.

Who's Pressuring Gold?


Dear Readers for the first time. We publish the GOLD pressure charts. Just look at it and let me know what is your interpretation. Then We will discuss it. For next time I will rename the legends, but for now the YELLOW=PressureOscillator, BLUE=GoldPrice and PINK=AveragePressureOscillator. We have kept you out of the gold for last four months. This tool was instrumental in navigating the gold decisions on the short term swing basis. The April decision to stay out of the gold was based more on the longer term cycle work ( see http://www.safehaven.com , "Sorry To Blow Your $u$$le" )
Good Trading

Limits

O - not updated, N - updated.
N QQQQ 46.83 - 47.51
N GLD 64.18 - 64.81
O USO 49.49 49.92
N ECA 61.81 - 64.69
N SPX 1527.95 - 1510.96
N TSX 14042.38 - 13769.11
Good Trading
Well, we can not fault our Gages, They seem to know before it happens, is not it.I would be so dumb without them.
John said...
This is what I felt like yesterday.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yMwmqp3GLMc


11:59 ET With all that is going on. Major indices may have just kissed back the broken trendlines and some of them 50-62-80% Fib retracements. Worth Noting.



Jim Taylor, JD said...
At 07:45 PDT the NAZ crested above 2601 (51 Squared strong resistance)
and the DOW touched 13572.25 Up wave ends by 10:25 PDT Weakness into close.
Jim
6/14/2007 9:50 AM

Working on Pressure Graphs



Dear Readers, the Graphs today indicate that the buy pressure is lower again, but it may need one more lowering day ( means higher, sideways indices ) to get to approach the Sell market countdown. All Else is as indicated before. I will try to deliver graphs very soon
Good Trading