Thursday, May 31, 2007

Limits

Dear Readers, today's limits.
Attantion O - OLD, N - NEW.
N QQQQ 46.91 - 47.73
N GLD 65.29 - 65.58
O USO 47.85 - 48.79
O ECA 59.07 - 60.87
N SPX 1527.11 - 1539.43
N TSX 14058.90 - 14120.57

Has anybody noticed the CAD top around 1.0666 only 16c away from our limit.
Has anybody noticed the 121.96 hit of our target in YEN.
Well Dear Readers, keep coming, cause there ain't a place where you can find these kind of things.

Good Trading

Only LongTerm Trade, Sell Q 47.50

Risk is stop at 50.10. You should have this short, as this was not a limit order, but the area to sell. Just lower the stop to 1-3c loss at 47.50 that is it.
OUT with no/minimal loss 11:00 ET
Jim Taylor, JD said...
MEGA CLUSTER:


13630.56 DOW
2601 NAZ
10000 NYSE
1530.76 S&P500
702.25 S&P 100
1925.01 NDX100
841 R2K

JIM

5/31/2007 8:24 AM




Good Trading

Now We Satrt To Talk


Dear Readers, Now the sell signal is clearer in the view. The sales pressure has grown nicely last couple days and we reenter our countdown for another go around for the absolute top. God Be with us. As long as we do not lose money. We have and will make money...
Time to screw CAD around 1.0650 8:38ET
Good Trading

CAD means Caput cAnadian Dollar

Dear Readers Canadian Dollar has reached the levels from which only bad things can happen. While there is an outside chance for USD/CAD to go to 1.02 the level around 1.0650 is most likely where this currency stops. We are in the area now. Start the countdown. Remember our post "Bruttish Death of British Pound"? Well, you know what happened to BP after that? Same with CAD, soon.
Also look at JPYen, this currency has enormous support around 122. I could be the final post on which the world stock markets hang. A jump of YEN from here, could do more damage to markets then CHINA market decline could ever contemplate!
Good Trading

Wednesday, May 30, 2007

Limits

Dear Readers, today's limits.
Attantion O - OLD, N - NEW.
N QQQQ 45.88 - 47.25
N GLD 64.44 - 64.91
N USO 47.85 - 48.79
N ECA 59.07 - 60.87
N SPX 1506.79 - 1516.58
N TSX 13847.16 - 14016.57
Stop Q's at 46.70 09:55 ET
Safer stop is at 46.76 10:01 ET
If there is turn,it must come at 10:11 ET
Now 46.76 is the last stand. 10:36 ET

Jim Taylor, JD said...
Buy Support 13456 Lo 13456.73
Sell Resistance 13514.06 Hi 13518.05
Looking for Next TP
Jim
5/30/2007 7:22 AM


If we break down here -> fatal 10:39
if not, we are going higher 10:41 ET

Jim Taylor, JD said...
NAZ struggling with 2562.89
N100 " " 1892.25
Jim
5/30/2007 7:48 AM


I am out with few penneys gain 11:28 ET
If sold higher, can hang at 46.76 11:39 ET

Jim Taylor, JD said...
Looking for UP WAVE to END BY 08:48 PDT
5/30/2007 8:30 AM
Jim Taylor, JD said...
N100 Resistance: 1903.14
Jim
5/30/2007 8:47 AM


Jim Taylor, JD said...
Looking to SHORT potential UP Spike at:
S&P 1521
NYSE 9900.25
N100 1903.14
At 09:32 PDT
Jim
5/30/2007 9:15 AM


Dear Readers, Searching to position on the short side, we did not make much money in trading for almost couple months. Well, that is fine with us. Why, cause we make most of our money with market neutral trading and income investments. Our goal in trading is not to lose, repeat again, not to lose. I hope this is clear. Or readers may want to go some other place to make/lose their money.

Jim Taylor, JD said...
Spike on Schedule; ALSO;
NAZ Resistance at 2575.56
JIM
5/30/2007 9:27 AM


Jim Taylor, JD said...
Weakest Link: DOW struggling with 13543.14.
Strongest Link: R2K approaching 841 29 squared.
Jim
5/30/2007 10:39 AM





Good Trading

Take 1/3 profits 46.34

I am short from 46.70 yesterday. Stopping at 46.61. Sorry, could get everybody in, but anybody who took a bit larger risk yesterday will be in. I took my position on a secondary drop couple hours after, but due to the higher risk could not get all in.
Good Trading

Not A Lot That Is New


Dear Readers, Not a lot is new, except the news out of China. Stocks there are limit down. Due to government raising the transaction fees for stocks. Dear John, told us about that yesterday. Thanks John. Let us note that 5/23+- 2 days did produce a $ low of sorts and now it is getting stronger again. The only problem is that the degrees of the moves is not high so, the entire thing looks like a sideways move, which it maybe. We advocate resumption of $ decline in Sep. So, long term people may just want to stay in EURO/CHF etc and ride out the Sept decline.
Good Trading

Shekel Turning, TA100 as well

Dear Readers, under this title we posted few weeks ago and predicted that the Shekel would turn higher ( actually lower(: :)) and that happened. The TA100 has bought a bit more time, but it will turn as well. 1089 was and this area still remains as a heavy Resistance, but possibility of a spike to 1180 ( 3rd Yearly resistance) exists. Real Estate companies lead the TA100/TA25 for a long time, but now they broke down and banks are the only thing that are still pushing these indices higher. That is about to end. Israel is about one year behind USA, REAL ESTATE broke down one year ago in USA...
Good Trading

Tuesday, May 29, 2007

Kiss Of Death, by YEN?

Dear Readers.
Has Yen Just Kissed the kiss of death to 121.82? We stated few days ago that 122 ( more like 121.95 on our calculations) was very strong support for YEN all the way from 121.50-122. So, today we have kissed the 121.82. and turned back pretty strong. Is this it for a sizable rally in YEN, or ,at least, enough to scare the hell out of this asset bloated market?. Watch The YEN carefully 122, 124 and 125 are strong supports and we just visited the 122 (121.82).

Good Trading

Jim Taylor, JD said...
NAZ and DOW up waves over.
Jim
5/29/2007 12:30 PM

Sorry About LImits, Updated Below

Dear Readers, This is a kind of a day I dread. I can not do much. One Head, two hands, not enough. See the updated Limits Below
Good Trading

Jim Taylor, JD said...
NDX100 at Resistance: 1903.14
R2K approaching strong Resistance: 841 29 squared.
MKT: looks like a WEAK WEEK until Friday.
5/29/2007 8:20 AM


Yeah, we could be in, but We will never change the control of our trade. Why, cause we do not chase the market. Who says we have to sell it now? We can sell whenever we like and under the conditions we like. We have two absolute requirements. We like to win, but we love not to lose. That is it. This will never change!

Jim Taylor, JD said...
DOW approaching Resistance: 13514.06
JIM
5/29/2007 10:13 AM

Sorry too much going on in currencies as well

Stop down to 46.79, should be free trade almost for everybody.
Watch out, one may have to reshort if they hit us back at this stop. Alternatively one may want to stop above 46.87

Stop All at 46.88, 10:47 ET mental
No matter where sold. Risk is under 7-8c. That is it. No Penney more.
Most Likely TurnAround Time 11:00 ET.


Jim Taylor, JD said...
SHORT AT:

2575.56 NAZ

1521 S&P 500

JIM

5/29/2007 8:05 AM


Stops Down 46.81 Mental. Do not Give Market Any Money. Let it prove that it can go down from here. 11:10 ET

Out Due To The Risk Control 11:15 ET

Sell Now within 10c of the top

Protect with 10c stop, mental. Not more.

Limits

Dear Readers, today's limits.
Attantion O - OLD, N - NEW.
N QQQQ 46.35 - 46.73 (46.84)
This Second Limit Is also 60% retrace of the fall!!!
N GLD 65.07 - 65.60
O USO 49.22 - 49.69
O ECA 60.44 - 61.51
N SPX 1512.33 - 1522.32
N TSX 14017.16 - 14103.57

The Day To Remember 5/29/1946


Dear Readers, Greetings on this Memorial day. Happy days to all who cares about our beautiful country called USA. Unfortunately I must warn those ready to hear that this could be the top time just like it was in 1946. The CYAN line Average Buy Pressure is in low position and seems to be ready to go up big way. Question when. Answer... soon. This week endofMay/beginingofJune looks like a good time. We may require one more go to the high/extreme Sell Signal before though. So, stay tuned.
Gold/Currencies/Interest Rates/Energy... No change.
Sorry about that, I was so fixated on the play of words "memorial day" -> "the day to remember" then I wrote independence day and got back to trading, Big positions in Currenices(: :)
Good trading

Friday, May 25, 2007

Limits

Dear Readers, today's limits.
Attantion O - OLD, N - NEW.
N QQQQ 46.06 - 46.45
N GLD 64.78 - 65.11
N USO 49.22 - 49.69
N ECA 60.44 - 61.51
N SPX 1504.16 - 1517.92
N TSX 13934.16 - 14067.87

Jim Taylor, JD said...
Bounce ENDS within 30 minutes.
Resistance:
DOW 13514.06 High 13516 hit earlier
NAZ 2562.89
NYSE 9887.5
S&P 1521 (39 squared)
N100 1892.25
Jim
5/25/2007 8:01 AM


We just rejected QQQQ at 46.46. This has a nice chance of holding up and could mark the end of the days rise.

Knocking on 46.46 again and this a turnaround time with an exhaustion bar, watch the failure to surpass this level cause another sell off. 13:28 PM

OK the grinding phase, will not happen, at least not today. The buy pressure depicted on our graph below turned out enough to cause the market to rise, most likely, for today. We will analyze over the weekend the current picture to see the clues for the future. Have a nice weekend everybody.



Good Trading

JAWS have closed, now the grind?


Dear Readers JAWS of our PRESSURE GAGES have closed. Is the grinding phase coming or will an invisible hand/power cause the JAWS wide open again. In many ways this decline is more powerful than the one started in Feb 2007. Now, the question is will it be followed with a devastating grind today? We will be watching. Probabilities are there. I do not want us to start celebrating the start of the decline. It does nobody good, but if it happens it will be because of the boom and bust constantly tailored into our life by politicians. So be it, just make sure my readers are not caught. Gold continued lower and currencies stalled after initial recovery. Just follow the scripts we outlined. Energy, well we think it turned ( with a caveat of new hostilities eruption in MEast). Interest Rates rose as projected, but may have reached the point of return and could be coming down. We think they may not come down immediately, which would hurt our $ forecast scenario. But Remember, if you do not want headaches then stay out of the $, as you know that it will go lower into the next year.

Thursday, May 24, 2007

Limits

Dear Readers, today's limits.
Attantion O - OLD, N - NEW.
N QQQQ 46.39 - 47.13
N GLD 65.21 - 65.51
N USO 49.75 - 50.24
N ECA 60.60 - 62.62
N SPX 1517.32 - 1526.61
N TSX 14104.16 - 14202.00
Stocks May like the housing numbers, but they can not love almost 5% 10Year Notes.

We just hit the exhaustion bar on the downside of QQQQ if this can not halt the move, watch out for new lows. 10:46 ED
Jim Taylor, JD said...
Looking for a Bounce at:

DOW 13456
NAZ 2537.64
NYSE 9825.65
N100 1870.56

Jim

5/24/2007 9:40 AM


Have an exahustion bar again at the 3rd support level 46.18 break of this will find us under 46... 12:43 ET

Are STENNIS and NIMITZ the beginning or the end of OIL profits. Probabilities favor that BIG ENERGY XOM/CVX/REP/TOT have rolled over, for this cycle. The Drillers seem to depict the picture of the TOP GSF/NHY/NBR/PKD/DO/OII/RIG and $XOI, of course. It seems like only miracle and/or war can take them higher. 12:51 ET

USO just hit the 5th support (48.92) for today. 13:22 ET

Failure by QQQQ to rally above 46.44 next 10-15 minutes may indicate possible collapse of Q's for today 13:26

Above QQQQ warning now remains for the remainder of today 13:44

USO below 5th resistance, RARE occasion, could be in it's own collapse 13:53

USO has just put an exhaustion bar. For it's sake let's hope the low 48.59 holds or else 14:01

QQQQ 46.18 still holding up. Watch it give. That may not be pretty. ANother exahustion bar created. Break if/when it comes will be significant 14:24 ET

Q's have established new challenge 46.09, watch for a hard break or a rebound 14:48 ET

Dear JD, Good Calls For Today. Bounce, we have to see if it comes today or tomorrow, but Certainly Reaching the Points You Provided. Thanks Again.
Good Trading

Need Follow UP


Dear Readers, Yesterdays action can be considered the beginning of the downturn, but we need a confirmation. That means a strong down day with stocks going down outgunning the stocks going up. Until we see that, the down move is suspect. Besides we did not reach 48.25 in QQQQ, which is not mandatory, but usually is reached ( 1st Yearly Resistance). The JAWS(see previous post) need to be closed and closed hard. We shell see if it happens today. Currencies had a small rebound, possibility exists for that to continue, but do not count on it. US $ has turned and any chance should be used to go $ long into Sept. Gold Still Meandering as suggested into June/July. Energy staying up due to the geopolitical ( mostly ) support. It will top when the US stock Markets top ( soon ). Interest rates have been going up and could do so couple more weeks, but then lower as the economy will slow down with the anticipated stronger $. Good Trading

Wednesday, May 23, 2007

Extreme Care

Dear Readers we have just registered a very dangerous formation on NYA and QQQQ. No longs here. Exit All longs. Today has the chance of being IT....
Looks More Ugly by minute! 14:20 ET
QQQQ has supported at the 3rd support 46.87. If/when that is broken again watch out below 15:01 ET
Good Trading

Limits

Dear Readers, today's limits.
Attantion O - OLD, N - NEW.
N QQQQ 46.99 - 47.28 ( 47. 42, 47.57 )
N GLD 65.41 - 65.62
N USO 49.50 - 50.32
N ECA 61.44 - 62.11
N SPX 1524.92 - 1529.15
N TSX 14145.16 - 14208.92
I like today's move. When you are going you want to get there. So, let's do it Dear QQQQ and get to 48.25 then we will short you my friend(: :) 10:08 ET
Funny how all indices hit records at the same time. There is nothing like the "FOR SALE" sign in the window for bozos to come in... Remember what we said. What does the thief need? - A dark night. So the indices ( thiefs ) are taking full advantage of the temporary $ weakness (Dark Night)!!!
Is anybody watching how BPound has erased 50% of 4 weeks decline in one day? That is the markets for you dear readers. You waited for things to start way before 5/23 and it all happened in one day... I hope you are learning ( to be patient I mean ).

Jim Taylor, JD said...
At Resistance:

NAZ 2601 (51 Squared)
NYSE 9975
S&P 1530.76
N100 1920.63

Jim

5/23/2007 8:20 AM



Good Trading

Not Just Close, Inevitable...


Dear Readers, we have just reached the stage where a down draft is not just close, it is inevitable. The question for the millionth time is will some invisible hand save this market again or is the jig up. The BUY and SELL pressures have painted the JAWS picture. Where they will only close by taking the pray - the stock market. Again the question is will JAWS take the hand or both or legs or even body... How will Stock market survive the next move down. Soon we are to find out. CURRENCIES are showing the life into the window we spoke about 23 +-2 days ( especially British Pound , which usually leads). Gold Still unable to get going and Interest rates are really really rising ( to hurt the market!). Energies are more than tired. How many times can bools (no, no typo ) play Nigeria card to fleece the public... Ha! ( having that said, do not forget, while unexpected, MEeast can ignite again) Good Trading

Tuesday, May 22, 2007

Limits

Dear Readers, today's limits.
Attantion O - OLD, N - NEW.
N QQQQ 46.89 - 47.22
N GLD 65.60 - 65.80
O USO 49.71 - 50.32
N ECA 61.80 - 63.30
O SPX 1520.60 - 1526.18
N TSX 14050.45 - 14160.21
Jim Taylor, JD said...
Today's Support Levels:

DOW 13514.06
NAZ 2575.56
NYSE 9900.25
S&P 1521
N100 1903.14

A break of three ...Long Way DOWN

Jim

5/22/2007 8:54 AM

Jim Taylor, JD said...
N100 closest to Resistance at 1914.06

Jim

5/22/2007 9:47 AM

Jim Taylor, JD said...
Approaching Resistance Cluster:

13572.25
2588.26
9925.14
1530.76
1914.06
$CPC at 1.20; after a squeeze; a close at the LOW's


Jim Taylor, JD said...
QQQQ AT Resistance: 47.27

Jim

5/22/2007 11:52 AM





Good Trading

Getting Even Closer



Dear Readers, Yesterday the market had a feel of going any direction and the market has chosen to go higher, not for long as you know we have targets within 2% from here. Unlike yesterday, tody's pressure gages are very close to SELL and require for us to be on alert for next couple days. While not extreme the SELL PRESSURES are approaching mature levels and the sentiment is on our side, while the cycles are matured indeed. Metals resting before next down turn? Downside though maybe limited by $15-25 in gold. Currencies are not able to gain on $ even as 23/5 is approaching, which supports the idea that $ is stronger from the early May and may not give good opportunies to reenter long side. Such are the markets my friends you blink and you miss. Interest rates have perked up lately and may stay there or go higher next couple weeks, supports the $?

Monday, May 21, 2007

stop 47.22 mental. This one is free

Stop Lower 47.20 2c+ 12:46 edt
Stop Lower 47.16 6c+ 13:10 edt
OUT WITH A TOTAL OF -4 TO -8C FOR NOW 13:25
Dear Readers, remember this is peanuts in the total picture.
We could still be short, but we cannot and will never change our risk control. We ( you should be) trade with a 2-4$ per share round trip. So the costs are low and we make sure that our risks are low. We will never risk more than 10c for a trade. no matter how attractive it looks. That is why we never lose much. But when we are right we take out 15,25, 40 c at a time out of it or more if it ever turns into a long term trade. Obviously, for this to work, one must trade size. That would be, at least, 300 shares per trade. This is so that readers understand parameters under which we undertake these trades. Good Trading

stop 47.25, 3c risk

Sell now 47.22 , with 5c stop

stop at 47.15 if short of money 5c risk,mental

Out with our shorts. Total 14c loss ( for those who could) and 10c for those who could not, after many $ we took out of this one for months. That is a nice sacrifice for finding out if QQQQ may want to stop here instead of 48.xx. Good Trading

Sell at 47.10 stop 47.19

stop down to 47.09 mental, 4c risk

Sell QQQQ at the market, stop 47.13

Dear Readers Sell, 1/3 or 1/2 of what you would usually sell. Remember Risk only 9c. Sold at 47.04. And we have a possible move to 48.25 on QQQQ. So do not give too much to the market at this point. Good Trading

Limits

Dear Readers, today's limits.
Attantion O - OLD, N - NEW.
N QQQQ 46.60 - 46.87
N GLD 64.90 - 65.33
N USO 49.71 - 50.32
N ECA 61.60 - 63.88
N SPX 1520.60 - 1526.18
O TSX 14042.45 - 14141.21

Jim Taylor, JD said...
At Resistance:

NAZ 2575.56
NYSE 9900.25
S&P100 702.25

Jim

5/21/2007 7:52 AM


Jim Taylor, JD said...
MAJOR CLUSTER NOW FORMING: 5 INDEXES

DOW 13572.25
NDX100 1914.06

Jim

5/21/2007 7:57 AM


Dear Readers. 47.17 4th Resistance for today and exahustion bar, as well as, fractal exahustion 11:20 EDT.
Good Trading

Sunday, May 20, 2007

Rat Race



Dear Readers, The Stock Market is on the rat racing machine. It knows not keeping up with the machine is/will be fatal, so it is racing until it breaks down. Not much left though. Remember we thought SPX will hit 1550, we are close. Hang on with the RAT. Metals, especially Silver disappoint Bulls. Just as thought. Currencies still need a hiccup into 23/5 and Interest rates are now racing with the RAT as well. They are adding to the tools that will kill this "bull/bool" market full of smoke and mirrors. P.T. Barnum is alive. Bozos do not disappear they get replaced, cause the "sucker is born every day". While USA public, burned often, is cautious the new rich wannabes flock the emerging world markets. How bitter this will be for them...

Friday, May 18, 2007

Limits

Dear Readers, today's limits.
Attantion O - OLD, N - NEW.
N QQQQ 46.30 - 46.63 ( 46.68, 46.77)
Appologies for typos here.
Thanks Dear Greenie
Apparetnly was reading a wrong security
N GLD 65.00 - 65.45
N USO 49.41 - 50.74
N ECA 61.10 - 63.42
N SPX 1509.15 - 1522.65
N TSX 14042.45 - 14141.21
Does anybody remember 14140 is also a 2nd yearly resistance!? and if that breaks on towards 14814...

Careful now 11:00 +-15Min AM shaping up as turnaround and exhaustion point for QQQQ watch levels at that time 10:27 EDT-BORIS

Q's are showing signs of disorientation

Dear Readers, I must leave you for couple hours. Have fun and keep making good contributions. Really appreciate everybodies participation.See you in a couple...

Ok Q's came out of the decline and went higher. being away from my "home station", I am not sure exactly where we are, in terms of stthe bar counts and exhaustion, but it seems to me that we are approaching the 3rd resistance for today. TSX is also approaching the resistance area. ECA is plotting along in the parablolic fashion. This is where most of the money is made. In the mania.

Looking at XBN7 Gasoline Futures and reversal of today. Without having exact calculations of the Yearly limits, I estimate that at today's high of 234.19 we have hit and rejected the 3rd Level Resistance of for this commodity. Being the strongest component of OIL complex... are we nearly done/caput with ENERGY? if not we could look for filler up at $4 and higher! Let us hope not... We could be looking at the same situation in XOI. My Record in XOI is incredible. anybody can look it up. So, let the bulls hope that I do not say SELL, which I just may do...

That is all she wrote...
Have a nice weekend everybody and thanks for your participation

Still On The Wire



Dear Readers,Stock Markets are still on wire . All it takes one push. Does not preclude up move, especially, if the $ goes down, expected into 23/5. Are Gold/Silver showing loss of general liquidity for all assets? We think so. Do we have another Energy BS rally? we think so. But market forces,powers that want to, could push ENERGY much farther than anybody expects... So, no shorts for now. Interest Rates have perked up. Will not last in time either, but can cause damage in a 2-3 week period. US $Dollar has fired an opening salvo higher, expect correction here. So, what do we advice? Already being long Us $ or doing it on next strength, short/out metals, keep money in short term treasuries funds and praying markets go our way. Good Trading

Thursday, May 17, 2007

Limits

Dear Readers, today's limits.
Attantion O - OLD, N - NEW.
N QQQQ 46.28 - 46.60 (46.67)
N GLD 64.89 - 65.30
N USO 48.50 - 49.20
N ECA 60.15 - 61.38
N SPX 1506.67 - 1516.83
Drop of SPX below 1500 is possible and will be fatal
Dear Malcolm is not sleeping, Thanks for catching my typo (1, instead of 0)
N TSX 13913.45 - 14030.92
R2K is in trouble. Will DOW/SPX join today?
John, posted interesting thoughts in today's main post, I would like to review and talk to john/all about this. In few minutes. Our review of John's comments shows that his logic is good and timehonored. We believe though that the inputs in his calcuations, namely interest rates, are officially correct, but eventually incorrect as they are skewed by the biggest imbalance in the world history. China/MeadEast/Japan will soon stop buying wothless US bonds and mortgages, Unless US stops issuing them in the current amounts. In fact, PIMCO BOND KING B GROSS has just updated the upper limit of 10TNOTES to 6.50 ( from 5.50) by 2009-11. Interesting he had to do this? while John was posting very intesting topic here. So, where does this interest rate "LIE" show up? in worthless $. You do not believe? travel outside of US sometime, Yes, people are looking to conserve purchasing power... Thanks Dear John.

SPX has just produced the SELL exhaustion bar. Remember we are not selling yet, but it is important to note 11:21 EDT-BORIS


Jim Taylor, JD said...
THE FUSE IS LIT

Yesterday the NAZ had 117 New Lows and 116 New Highs.

S&P WALL= 1521 = 39 Squared

SHORT NOW

Jim

5/17/2007 8:23 AM


Jim Taylor, JD said...
Running on Fumes

NAZ Up Wave Ends By 09:20 PDT

Jim

5/17/2007 8:42 AM


Jim Taylor, JD said...
Three Strikes and You're OUT!!!

So far two penetrations of:
DOW 13456, NAZ 2537.64 S&P 1511.26
have occurred.

Ice getting thinner.

JIM

5/17/2007 10:32 AM


Jim Taylor, JD said...
DOW at Resistance: 13514.06

Jim

5/17/2007 12:05 PM


Jim Taylor, JD said...
DOW Resistance 13514.06
Minus 50 Week Moving Avg 12045= 1469
Crash catalyst Military/Terror forseeable events for which the current risk premium is ZERO.

Gone fishing.

Jim

5/17/2007 1:14 PM


Jim Taylor, JD said...
Point and Figure Buy Signals on the DOW: On three occassions during the last 10 Years a level of 93% was reached, 2 times in '98 and once in '04. The DOW recently had a 96% or 29 of 30 stocks. If the prior 93% reading were tops; we probably saw the TOP TODAY with a classic one day reversal.

JIM

5/17/2007 4:03 PM




Good Trading

I blew Japanese Yen Forecast

Dear Readers, of all the forecasts I have made, one that has treated us badly is Japanese Yen. Secondary Rally of any kind has never materialised there. There is still a chance on around 5/23 for some sort of a rally. Let us hope one will develop. Achievable levels have been rising ( declining) from 112-115 to 115-118.5 and now from 118.5 to 119.5. Well there is always one that gets away, will JPY will be the one(: :). Good Trading
Note: JPY is largely and single handidly maybe responsible for market holding up!

On The Brink


Dear Readers, Sotcks are tittering on the brink. One wrong move (see "Need An Opening salvo" ) and we see trouble. Currencies, important juncture, down leg before, perhaps, final leg up, is stretched. Means, major low in $ rgistered early May?. We hope for a hiccup into 23/5. This was more probable scenario than the 23/5 top, even if never stated this clearly. Hard enough to predict May low!. Gold/Silver in problems, as stated long while ago, not buying them until June/July. Energy, big part of SPX(10%), staying up, mostly on profits from refiners, while OIL is heading lower. Most of SPX profits comes from it. until this Smoke/Mirror keeps up, market will look OK, but it is coming to an end. Bonds stuck still. Good Trading

Wednesday, May 16, 2007

Limits

Dear Readers, today's limits.
Attantion O - OLD, N - NEW.
N QQQQ 45.66 - 46.55
N GLD 65.91 - 66.43
Is GOLD Telling Us Something about Stocks Market?
N USO 48.22 - 49.06
N ECA 58.88 - 60.84
N SPX 1498.07 - 1513.83
N TSX 13882.45 - 14004.92
Real Man Do not Hide Under Skirt, Stock Market Currently Is. Have You Seen the R2K vs DOW?
QQQQ has a ABC correction completed late yesterday. It could serve as a launch pad or a breakdown point
11:15 EDT very probable turnaround time, with exhaustion bar
This turnaround has legs,but if the low broken, I fear for the market 12:06 EDT
GOLD/SILVER in need for PlungeProtectionTeam 12:21 EDT
The way currencies plunged today, opens possibility of $ LOW IN PLACE???


11:15 Call Looks Pristine by minute.
Careful hit 50% retrace & possible exhausttion bar 14:15 EDT
Back to 50% retrace, no exhaustion,going higher 15:30 EDT

DEAR H. STRATEGY YOU OUTLINED THIS MORNING IN THE MAIN DAILY POST HAS WORKED WITH FLYING COLORS. CONGRATS, BORIS
Good Trading

$ stronger last hour

Dear Readers, Especially $ is stronger against the carry-trade currencies CHF and JPY. Do we see the frail nerves of carry-traders ( which is everybody speculating on Wall Street these days) soothed for a while? I believe this is within the context of $ topping before a drop into 23/5. Nothing changed except exact timing of the decline. Now, I could be wrong and wrong big way, but at this point I do not see it.
Good Trading

Need An Opening Salvo



Dear Readers, We need an opening salvo that will announce the move lower. While we have had sizable declines in R2K and QQQQ the Big indices SPX and INDU are still holding up. Whether the decline is going to be a slow or fast moving, there is always a need for an opening Salvo, a big move down(2-3%) that starts it. So far not there. Now, we could/should get it today/tomorrow or we start moving up again, as the BUY Pressure builds. Gold still meandering, Energy pretends being strong, but shows signs of sluggishness and Bonds are still stuck. Currencies are proving the turnaround up into 23/5 +-2 days.

Tuesday, May 15, 2007

We could come unhinged

Dear Readers, we could come unhinged here ( probability at least 30%) just like we did on late FEB. Be extremely careful of any longs here. Good Trading

Limits

Dear Readers, today's limits.
Attantion O - OLD, N - NEW.
N QQQQ 46.16 - 46.69
Incredibly precise rejection at 46.69!
N GLD 66.13 - 66.49
N USO 48.22 - 48.76
N ECA 58.80 - 59.95 (60.38 , 60.71, 61.25, 62.12)
( HIT the end... exhaustion bar?,Yearly 2nd Resistance)
more,reject/exhaust 60.25 11:14 EDT
Daily exhaust bar today/tomorrow?
Reached Fractal Exhaust 11:51 EDT
Ordinarily, It is hard to press much higher here
N SPX 1497.90 - 1512.42
N TSX 13882.60(13873) - 13932.99
Currency Traders, Turn as projected 14/5 +- 1?
Notice Stock Rally? and $ decline simultaneously
Jim Taylor, JD said...
Hi Boris,
DOW at STH 13456 116 squared
Jim
5/15/2007 8:44 AM


Jim Taylor, JD said...
DOW UP WAVE ENDS BY 09:45 PDT
Weak Links in The Chain:
NDX at 1892.25
R2K at 826.56
JIM


Good Trading

Nothing Resolved, Still



Dear Readers, For completeness of our view, please reread the last two posts. What we like to emphasize here is that BUY-PRESSURE and Average Buy Pressure are all low, which indicates that, while the situation can last for few days, it is not possible for this market to make real big strides up under this configuration. So far the market has obliged and has given up some ground. Remember, though only after market has sniffed that FED abandoned the idea "liquidity uber alles" it will be possible to see a hard break as well. So, as we have always done, we focus on shorter term moves in hopes of converting them into the longer term moves, most likely, lower. Good Trading

Monday, May 14, 2007

Limits

Dear Readers, today's limits.
Attantion O - OLD, N - NEW.
N QQQQ 46.66 - 46.99
N GLD 66.30 - 66.69
N USO 48.55 - 49.06
N ECA 58.63 - 59.17
N SPX 1501.76 - 1514.94
N TSX 13948.28(13932) - 14023.54

At the open QQQQ has hit an exhaustion bar and fractal exhaustion. 9:58 EDT-BORIS

Since I am not watching all things, very strong move of ECA Yesterday Ha... ( I wonder what the Yearly Limit is for it, I will give it later).

Sorry, could not get you QQQQ info out earlier, but 46.67 was it low? considering timing suggests high 11:15 EDT , 10:13 EDT-BORIS
OR next 46.58 , 46.48 10:15 EDT-BORIS

Have missed Nice opportunity to early profitable decision ( to sell), all cause I have only two hands and one brain. 10:29 EDT-BORIS

Q's did not register High at 11:15, Perhaps it has registered Lows? 11:36 EDT-BORIS

Next Q's stations 46.29, 46.08 13:10 EDT-BORIS

Jim Taylor, JD said...
STL for NAZ hit at 11:22 PDT (2537.92); close enough to 2537.64
DOW approaching Resistance at 13340.25
5/14/2007 12:25 PM





Good Trading

where now?



Dear Readers, Not a lot has changed for us to deviate from our previous forecast(s). We did have a good rally in US indices and even better rally in some other markets. The change in sentiment though is important and it is at a point where it supports the sell off in the market. Considering that Our Pressure Gages and cycles are already supporting the market move lower for a long time now, it seems to me that, there is very little that can hold this market up, except the destruction of $. Since I do not see that in near future ( even though weakness is projected into 23/5), I do not see an upside potential of any consequence right here and now. Please reread previous post for completeness. Just a reminder, 137.30 is almost a shue in for EURO and 140.0 is possible, but not very probable for 23/5.
Considering first 2 comments this morning, Please understand that in Real terms Market top of FEB 28 has not been broken. How about that Ha.....
Certainly the Market top of 2000 is only half way retraced. How about that Ha...
Having Told Dear Danno that some move on the upside would not surprise us, by no means implies that, I am bullish today. Hell no... We could just as well take a king size dive today. Be on you toes, buy pressure is close to nonexistant today.

Good Trading

Friday, May 11, 2007

Limits, willbe late, much going on

Dear Readers, today's limits.
N QQQQ 46.16 - 46.34
N GLD 66.07 - 66.53
N USO 48.15 - 48.83
N ECA 55.37 - 57.89
N SPX 1486.05 - 1506.55
N TSX 13790.67 - 13974.54 ( 14010, 14071)

We are at the top range 1 st resistance TSX if no big push in 3-4 minutes we may hit an exhaustion bar and start heading lower.

It seems to be going for 14010. Good Call Dear Danno. 10:58 EDT.

Looks like this rally has legs into early Monday.

This is by the same source , that alerted us to 1:42 bottom yesterday. No guarantees for such perfection.

Do you have a headache from all of these head fakes. Market goes up, market goes down. Everybody is feeling like being in the boat and just about to vomit. This is the markets job to get investors to an exhaustion where they are unable to act, frozen like Volga in winter.

Good Trading

Jim Taylor, JD said...
S&P Closed yesterday at support 1491.89
now rejected by 1501.56
NAZ will test support at 2550.25 (+16.51)
DOW will test 13282.56 (+67.43)
Looking for TREND CHANGE BY 0:9:45 PDT
5/11/2007 9:16 AM


QQQQ took out the 5th resistance today 46.58. Rare,very Rare event, came with an exhaustion bar, fake low volatility open turned into highly volatile move. You know I still have the yearly target 48.25. Does not have to reach it, but if $ is going lower next week or so, that would be the perfect time for stocks to make new UN-REAL record highs, to get the last minute BOZOS in for the trip nowhere, but lower, at least in real terms.

As Georgian Proverb Says "what does thief need? a dark night"

TSX is also showing the trend exhaustion for now.


Jim Taylor, JD said...
MINI CLUSTER AT:
NDX 100 1892.25
R2K 826.56
5/11/2007 9:52 AM


Jim Taylor, JD said...
DOW is the weakest index.
Looking for test of 13282.56 at 12:15 PDT
Indexes in Distribution Mode until 11:22:30 PDT.
5/11/2007 10:57 AM

What Next?



Dear Readers, The buy pressure is not yet where one could contemplate the strong move up, in fact, it is possible that we are at the begining of the weakness in the markts ( CYAN line has a long way to go up). So, relax and observe action today. Another strong day down will confirm the "begining", any other action will indicate the meandering phase of the "weakness"...The $ may have exhausted the near term strength and we could start (in a day/two) another down move in $Dollar lasting into 23/5 +- 2 days. Gold has taken dive ( we told you in April, not expect anything good until June). So, just let the bulls boil in their own juices and be patient, upwards move will come. Energy, yes, everything seems to be going down, as everything was going up... Interest rates, as before, bound for a while, could rise before causing the stronger move up in $ into Sept. But you know all of these, we just repeate them for convenience. Good Trading

Thursday, May 10, 2007

Limits

Dear Readers, today's limits.
N QQQQ 46.51 - 46.81
N GLD 66.57 - 66.95
N USO 47.74 - 49.02
N ECA 56.01 - 57.01
N SPX 1497.95 - 1518.59
N TSX 13839.40 - 13935.58
First it was Chinese Finance Official.
Then BOFA President
Even Before CITI VICE Rhodes?
NOW GOLDMAN, Are these guys finally waking up and calling the bubble what it is... $u$$le?
Good Trading
Still Have not broken Yesterday's low for TSX, if that happens, we have, at least, the possibility for an accelerating downturn.
Now TSX took out yesterday law accelartion on the downside is now more likely than before.
Jim Taylor, JD said...
Hi Boris,
Looking for a STL at:
S&P 1491.89 (-20.11)
NAZ 2537.64 (-38.7)
DOW LOW 13223.5; now Bouncing off 13225; if breached, NEXT SUPPORT: 13167.56 (-195.31
5/10/2007 10:28 AM

We approach a support for Stocks and possible turnaround point right now 1:42 EDT, This means either taking partial profits if you have any or do not short here.
Jim Taylor, JD said...
NAZ approaching Resistance at 2550.25
DOW UP WAVE ENDS at 12:00 PDT
5/10/2007 11:34 AM

British Pound

Dear Readers, GBP is approaching readings between 1.97 , 1.98 which is where we thought the initial decline will go ( therefore, perhaps initial strength of $). Just be alert here. Good Trading

Stay Ready



Dear Readers, The Pressure configuration has remained somewhat unchanged, but a bit more Sell Pressure has build up yesterday. In fact, the Sell Pressure for SPX is approaching extreme levels. The Intermediate term configuration clearly indicates the down move. We have another chart today. Where we keep the ratio of the LATESTAYERS/EARLYBRAKERS, that is like the old leaders versus new leaders thing. Usually having the larger number of old leaders indicates a tired market. So, you can see that we have the scarcity of new leaders developing as the ratio is coming down. Last time around this ratio at low levels has signaled the impending drop. Nothing is ever guaranteed, but this info helps. Sentiment is one of the only things that is still not good enough for our target top formation. Being patient helped us to make some money and retain the earnings for impending action. Stay the course, watch with us and see what develops. GOLD/ENERGY/CURRENCIES/INTERESTRATES just as before. We see $ asserting today and I see that for next couple days, after which $ should start another short bout of weakness into 23/5 +- 3 days. Good Trading

Wednesday, May 09, 2007

where now

We have supported very near to the 2nd level TSX support 13850 or so. I thought we would hit 4th support. Now this looks to me like an ABC (M ) on the upside. Unless we break the low of today we are moving higher.
Good Trading

Limits

Dear Readers, today's limits.
N QQQQ 46.43 (34 , 27) - 46.58(62 , 67, 89)
N GLD 67.64 - 67.85
O USO 47.33 - 47.93
N ECA 56.60 - 57.69(57.93)
N SPX 1502.55 - 1507.50
Warining Markets will be volatile, numbers will blow up
Good Trading
Jim Taylor, JD said...
ASIA BUBBLE PEAK TODAY:
Hang Seng 20736 = 144 Squared
NIKKEI 17689 = 133 "
$CPC HIT THREE YEAR LOW EARLIER TODAY AT .20 (SIGN OF MAJOR TOP)
STL Yesterday on S&P at 1501.56
Next level Down is 1491.89
NAZ rejected by 2562.89
Next support is 2550.25
FED would prefer a Recession before Lowering Rates
NAZ should Test 2562.89 at 09:30 PDT

Danno said...
I speculate that this might be the top for the TSX - 14000 and ECA right around here or little higher yet.
Danno
5/09/2007 7:52 AM

Dear Danno,Garth anybody knows what the Esignal index for TSX is?
$TSX-TC the name for TSX index
TSX-TC 13863.73 ( 13801.63) - 13951.41 ( exact third resist hit)
Jim Taylor, JD said...
NYSE at 9800 9801=99 Squared
5/09/2007 9:28 AM

We have supported very near to the 2nd level TSX support 1350 or so. I thought we would hit 4th support. Now this looks to me like an ABC (M ) on the upside. Unless we break the low of today we are moving higher.

Get Ready



Dear Readers, Market Pressure Configurations are still at the spot where they can go either way, but the probabilities favor move down in the intermediate term and even in the short term as the Buy pressure seems to be ready to pierce the CYAN , the average BUY Pressure line. So let us be alert today. It is not guaranteed that SPX will reach 1550, even though highly probable. Sentiment, while improved, is not yet extremely bullish, which makes harder to see an immediate and final top. One thing is without question. Barring further move down in $dollar I can not see the big upside potential at all. Repeating the story for other assets. Gold Meandering, $ turning up this month 23 +- 3 days, Energy as gold and Interest rates stuck sideways. Good Trading

Tuesday, May 08, 2007

Limits

Dear Readers, today's limits.
QQQQ 46.19(46.10, 45,95) - 46.67
GLD 67.64 - 68.11
USO 47.33 - 47.93
GG 24.72 - 24.97
It increasingly looks like we have exhausted down move, just as my comment to Danno about SPX went out.Good Trading
Jim Taylor, JD said...
UP WAVE WILL FIZZLE AT 10:13:00 PDT
JIM
5/08/2007 9:57 AM

MSG TO DEAR BYZANMAN, I suggest that you search "Builders" on this blog. You will find detailed analysis of the Builders stocks and their limits and my suggestion to Dear Mr. Rent that shorting/staying-short these stocks was dangerous. It has proven to be correct advise. If you have further questions after reading that. Please post a comment again.

Nice Call JD

Dear Readers, See JD's call In Posting Limits Below. So far, excellent.
Good Trading

Pressure Gages, Ready to Move


Dear Readers, Markets are in suspense mode, waiting for FED. Pressure gages are ready to move anyway in short term, but the configuration of CYAN lines in the extreme lows indicate the big move is coming on the down side. We have other tools that help fine tune such moves. So, be ready. Currencies Topping Here in MAY. GOLD Meandering, Ditto Energy and Interest Rates Stuck. Still the same story as before. Good Trading

Shekel Turning, TA100 as well

Dear Readers For months we have warned of $ demise into May 2007 it happened and Shekel appreciated with other currencies. Our levels were 4.10 initially and 3.78 sometime before next Passover. Well that was when Shekel was 4.25 or higher. Now at 3.98 "look what we have caused"... The World Stocks Markets are approaching the top and TA100 will be no difference, We had 2 levels 1045 and 1089 which have been easily passed next one 1173 maybe fatal. Good Trading

Monday, May 07, 2007

Warren Buffet Calling The Top

Dear Readers, You have all heard from BLOOMBERG L.P. Interview with Warren Buffet that he wants to find an elephant to put the elephant size 40-60 Billion in for safe keeping. Now I cannot and will not accuse Mr. Buffet of running the stocks, like the other private capital guys could be doing, but just think about it. It is not in the market!!! What is that? the idea that the biggest buyer is looking. This idea is now in the market. Is there a better bell ringer at the top?
We report You decide, fair and balanced... Yes, and did you see that program on some cable channel that is called "bulls and bulls"? Yeah, fair and balanced...
Good Trading

Limits

Dear Readers, today's limits.
QQQQ 46.46 - 46.93
GLD 68.12 - 68.49
USO 47.46 - 48.50
GG 25.09 - 25.60
Jim Taylor, JD said...
DOW COMPOSITE 4556.25 = 67.5 Squared
Util 529 23 Squared.
DOWN WAVE through TUES STARTS at 08:00 PDT.. 5 minutes from NOW.
5/07/2007 7:53 AM

Good Trading

Sunday, May 06, 2007

Sorry To Blow Your $u$$le, Ringing The Bell



Dear Readers for the full text of this article go to safehaven.com article
"Sorry To Blow..."

Friday, May 04, 2007

Limits

Dear Readers, today's limits.
QQQQ 46.52 - 46.96
GLD 68.02 - 68.41
USO 49.11 - 49.61
GG 24.85 - 25.48
Jim Taylor, JD said...
Resistance DOW +41.5= 13282.56
NAZ +10.5= 2575.56
Support DOW 13225 -16
NAZ 2562.89 -2.11
Breach of 13225; Long Way Down Thru Mon
Jim
5/04/2007 8:03 AM

Jim Taylor, JD said...
NYSE 9801 = 99 Squared Major Resistance SHORT NOW
Jim
5/04/2007 8:22 AM

This Limit of 9801 is amazingly consistent with our second Yearly limit 9800 and very, very close to the third Yearly resistance at 10000=square 100!!!. We think that before all is said and done we will get there. Also, please note QQQQ today's limit was approached within 7c today. Boris

Good Trading

Getting Closer



Dear Readers, Markets just as yesterday, but even closer to the target prices and days. Sentiment ( put/cal ratio) is approaching the turning point, but still not where I would love it to be and QQQQ still has 2% to go to 48.xx. Pressure Gages, while indicating sell, not extreme yet. We could go down from here, but I prefer more perfect alignment of stars.
Fixing the $ secondary bottom date at 23 +-3 trading days.
Good Trading

Thursday, May 03, 2007

Limits

Dear Readers, today's limits.
QQQQ 46.29 - 46.66
GLD 66.62 - 66.89
USO 49.00 - 49.87
AUY 13.90 - 14.20
GG 24.39 - 25.02
S(t)inking Currencies Ha...
Jim Taylor, JD said...
DOW struggling with 13225 115 squared. Probable re-test of 13167.56
114.75 squared and 2550.25 50.5 squared for the NAZ by 11:15 PDT

Jim

5/03/2007 8:49 AM



Good Trading

I am back

Dear Readers, welcome back. I am now ready to restart our regular updates with a new energy. Just a bit more time and I will be able to complete, sometime today, the updates of pressure gages. Not everything on my computers is done automatically, blame it on WINDOWS not supporting UNIX scripting as fully as I would like... What else is new. Micky Mouse wins again! Looking at the markets not much has deviated from what we said. In fact, I am amazed how close everything is following the script. I should go on vacation often? Stock Market has advanced to the fatal price and date. Still some left in this market. QQQQ, I think will make it to 48.25, but even without knowing exact pressure gage details, I can see that things are falling in place with the latest market rally. Sentiment has changed, almost, to bullish and the cycles are into May... What else do we want, nothing but watch carefully for local signs of the top within next 10-14 days.
Metals did not disappoint, by disappointing bulls. Energy is the market and market is the energy and it is in the last gasp. Currencies are showing the first signs of rolling over and by the late May they would have done so. Interest rates in the range bracketed by two suicidal maniacs $ Dollar on one hand and Housing on the other. Good Trading

Wednesday, May 02, 2007

Limits

Dear Readers Todays's Limits:
QQQQ 45.90 - 46.55(46.79, unlikely)
GLD 65.93 - 66.83
This is all I can do for today.
Hopefully more from tomorrow.
Good Trading

Tuesday, May 01, 2007

Far from computers

Dear Readers, I was far from computers last couple days. Meanwhile it looks like initial correction is in place for the markets. Metals are struggling and Currencies are in the process of turning. Interest rates are sideways and Energy may have tooped on shcedule with nice reversal on XOI.
I may have a chance to come back for limits. Good trading