Friday, March 30, 2007

Builders Subprime Banks and O'my

Dear Readers the table below was given to Dear Mr. Rent for his Builders short support levels, but there are levels even lower(BOLD).
------------------------------NOW
LEN 42.18 38.35 (43.08 )
HOV 24.24 19.90 (25.64 )(teenagersAgain!)
DHI 20.60 18.11 (22.15 )(teenagersAgain!)
CTX 41.09 35.30 (42.06 ) touched
TOL 26.18 21.36 (26.18 )
MTH 31.64 28.45 (32.73 ) touched
NVR 725.31 509 ( 699 ) touched
Now if these were to occur we are looking at some very unfortunate distress event of gigantic proportions. Not expected, but in this business one must expect unexpected so watch this staff. Thanks Dear Rent for touching on this subject. Good Trading

Tails and Antennas

Dear Readers, I hope you all see the tails(Stocks) and antennas ( OIL GOLD EURO etc) on your 5-15 min charts. I think this short run on stops is just about over and we can return back to Higher Stocks and Lower Other things. Again, I could be wrong, just be careful. Good Trading

LImits

Dear Readers today's limits

QQQQ 43.15 - 44.02 ( note Volatility adjastment)
Looks like JD will prove to be correct and the 2401 NASD level will be tested
That means 43.15 for QQQQ will also be tested.

GLD 65.36 - 66.07
USO 52.88 - 54.00
GG 24.09 - 24.54
Good Trading

Nothing Resolved



Dear Readers, yesterdays market moves have not resolved much from the questions posed in previous update. So stay tuned and watch what is the market's answer to the high Buy Pressure and decide accordingly. ENERGY... as promised, I looked at this and frankly there is nothing to it but a short covering rally that is about to stop dead at 55.00 for USO. If we are wrong and there is more to this energy rally than a short covering we could see 58.50 and Even 62.50. In either case we still view this market in the bear move and do not consider it to be turning into bull any time soon. Gold and Currency analysis remains unchanged From the last post. Good Trading

Thursday, March 29, 2007

OK, whats up with ENERGY

Dear Readers, Energy seems to be energized and you ask why, what is the reason. I hope that by now you know the markets go up cause somebody wants them to go up. When that somebody(ies) are powerful few things can stand in front of them to move the markets. This BS about Nigeria's would be president is garbage to justify a good old fashioned run of shorts. I should do a good technical review of this market to come up with a potential stop point and will try to do that by tomorrow. Anybody else is welcome to chime here with their own opinions. Standoff with Iran may not be helping things here, but you would not see it in GOLD will you? Good Trading

Limits

Dear Readers today's limits

QQQQ 43.61 - 43.97
Please note nice call from JD about the NASDAQ Bottom 2401, See the Comments
GLD 65.35 - 66.19
My Apologies on this one and thanks to alert Dear Mr Rent for catching this error in my typing.
USO 51.78 - 52.58
GG 24.34 - 24.70
Good Trading

All Pressured



Dear Readers, The Stock Markets are all pressured up. Buy Pressure has been growing and now has almost reached extremes. We waited for this time and thought tthat markets will decline to meet such a buildup. Now, the real character of this market will show up. If the markets move strongly higher from here, then we would know that it takes a relatively small buy pressure to take the markets up, which in English means "path of the least resistance is up". If not... you conclude the sentence. The Gold did what was expected fake the move up and then close lower. Yes it looks tired, but please do not get carried away with the weakness, this may turn out a stealth bull market where we see few rockets up, but a steady zig-zag slanting upwards. In any case early April lows are in cards. Ditto Energy and Currencies as well, which implies a strong(er?) Dollar for the coming 2-4 days. Good Trading

Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Limits

Dear Readers today's limits

QQQQ 43.60 - 44.01
GLD 65.96 - 66.22
USO 51.47 - 53.05
GG 24.39 - 25.37
Good Trading

Buy Pressure Growing


Dear Readers, As you can see the buy pressure is growing and in a day or two we will establish the secondary bottom in stocks. Depending on the depth of it we will see how strong the next move up will be. Gold As yesterday stated is trying to have a spike of sorts. In a day or two it will go down, but the Silver go down faster. Currencies higher in general, but could have a bit of strength for Dollar into early April (exception could be the YEN). Energies as GOLD. Good Trading

Tuesday, March 27, 2007

Limits

Dear Readers today's limits
Sorry being late ( my daughter got sick suddenly)
QQQQ 43.94 - 44.48
GLD 65.55 - 66.00
USO 50.40 - 51.08
GG 24.65 - 25.50
Good Trading

Even Pressures



Dear Readers. Technically speaking the pressure gages are indecisive meaning that market can go any way in short term. What can be inferred unmistakeably, though , is that there is not much of an upside potential without first having the buy pressure increase and that can only come with declining stocks. So, watch the limits and be alert on both sides, while preferring the the short side. Remember the intermediate term outline given in "August Again". Gold has recovered the loses from previous day as expected, and could create a final spike after the options expire ( today), which would bring the long expected end of month. Energy may have the spike if the GOLD does. Do not expect any of these spikes to last though. Story of currencies unchanged. Dollar is chased down towards 80. Good Trading

Monday, March 26, 2007

Limits

Dear Readers today's limits
QQQQ 44.00 - 44.26
GLD 64.97 - 66.47
USO 50.55 - 51.87
GG 24.76 - 25.35
Good Trading

Now What?


Dear Readers a decline is expected within 2-3 days. As you well know we have the rules for the market pressure gages. One of them is that when the sell pressure hits the extreme ( 3 days ago ) then we must expect at least a corrective decline within 2-4 days. So 2 days have passed and now we are closer to the "correction". Depending on the depth we will know what our further options are. So watch the high limits for the signs of weakness and exhaustion in the stock market. Gold took a detour as expected and corrected about 2% in the middle of our forecast correction range. We now expect a recovery to the March highs, possibly higher, into the end of March and/or beginning of April. The picture here is then of looking for the low limits for strong turnarounds. Dollar got a bit stronger last week, but this is a temporary event, look for lower move by End of April Early May period. Energy meandering for a while. Good Trading

Friday, March 23, 2007

Back Online

Going Off Site

Dear Readers I will be Back On LIne in 60 MIn.
Good Trading

Limits

Dear Readers Limits For Today.
Coming Up.
Meanwhile Note: Two Possible turnaround times today 10Am And 14Pm.
Watch the limits interplay at these times. Should have mentioned that the 14pm is more powerful and probable than 10Am

QQQQ 44.02 - 44.49
GLD 65.67 - 65.98
All seen the Plunger In GOLD, Deep Longs Cleaned!
USO 50.20 - 50.93
GG 24.13 - 24.64
Good Trading

Practically No Buy Pressure



Dear Readers, There is practically no buy power left for this market to continue immediately higher from here. That does not mean it can not go higher, but the advance should be limited ( As announced worldwide 12800 is a multi generational wall for DJI and while it can accede it, it could only happen with the collapsing Dollar, which is a lie I and I could not care less for lies. As it is US markets are not moving higher in real $... not a bull, but BOOL!). Gold has chosen not to advance immediately and a little detour can take it 1.5-2.5% lower from yesterdays high, before jumping higher into the end of March. Energies are showing some life, not for long, I am afraid, and Dollar... well, is going down like "helicopter" is up in the air. Good Trading

Thursday, March 22, 2007

Limits

Dear Readers, Limits for today.
QQQQ 44.05 - 44.64
Turnaround is QQQQ occured exactly around 12:25!
Please note that range is small, so this an inside day and any precision in time will not allow much gain in price ( small range ).
GLD 65.66 - 65.93 (66.20, 6640 possile)
Glittering one having an ugly day today. Can not make up the mind sitting right at the 50% retrace... Protect yourself and hope the breakout happens in your direction.
USO 48.86 - 49.84
GG 24.23 - 24.77
Good Trading

Sell Pressure out of Sight



Dear Readers, Stock market is showing and extremely polar BUY/SELL pressure difference. Which means that the market should be given at least 1-4 days to digest this very overbought condition and it can not do it instantly. Gold is entering the topping dates zone and needs to show vigor to make the assault on 700 area. Everything else remains as previously stated. Good Trading

Wednesday, March 21, 2007

Limits

Dear Readers, Limits for today.
QQQQ 43.18 - 43.84
GLD 65.38 - 65.55
USO 48.23 - 48.63
GG 24.02 - 24.34
These limits look not too wide, which means that they will, most likely, be blown out by actual market volatility.
QQQQ 44.43 could stop it if not 44.75 . We must expect resitance at these points.
The Turn around time is tomorrow 12:15EDT and watch the limits then.

GOLD may have stopped at 50% retrace of FEBhigh MARlow Retracement 664(April Futures).Good
Trading

Waiting for FED



Dear Readers, Pressure gages indicate mounting, but not very extreme sell pressure. Considering that we may need one more day to build more sell pressure, we may have a somewhat favorable reaction by markets to FED today and swoon towards the end of the week, 23-24 March as previously projected. Gold may have to rest a bit as well, but can not discount the possibility of breakout on the upside right after FED announcement. Good Trading

Good Trading

Tuesday, March 20, 2007

All That Glitters

Dear Readers, the glittering one, has hit the 3rd resistance today ( futures basis) 662.3 and rebounded. Well we have called every turn and twist of the glittering one from 690 down to 635 and back to 670-700 by 24-28 March.
Good Trading

Limits

Dear Readers, Limits for today.
QQQQ 43.17(09) - 43.40
GLD 65.17 - 65.44
USO 48.18 - 48.89
GG 24.22 - 24.97
Please see JD Limits for RUT/NASD in yesterdays Limits post
Good Trading

No Buy Pressure, almost



Dear Readers, pressure gages are exhibiting almost no buy pressure and small sell pressure, which, in the context of FED meeting coming up, would indicate that unless some external news drives the markets today, we should have a slow day waiting for tomorrow's FED announcement. If I am wrong on this, then just take everything we have said in last daily posts and follow it. I just think, that the play will be delayed by one day. Good Trading

Monday, March 19, 2007

Limits

Dear Readers, Limits for today.
QQQQ 42.98 - 43.26
GLD 64.58 - 64.83
USO 48.07 - 48.87
GG 23.83 - 24.63
Good Trading

Now What?

Dear Readers, simple view of the pressure gages shows that for the market to put in bottom ( even a local one) we need to have another surge in the buy pressure and it comes only via market making one more dive. It doesn't have to be a lower low of last few weeks, but it must come. How long does it take? Well, we thought that 23-25 March and early April are the next time frames for the low. Gold has put in the bottom we were looking for around 15 March +-2 days and now we are moving up into the 26 March +-2 days top. Dollar moving lower as projected. Must warn, that JPY can take big dive next couple days, and resume climb thereafter. Energy, mostly sideways, little up, in the short run, lower into June.


Friday, March 16, 2007

limits

Dear Readers, Limits for today.
QQQQ 42.56 - 43.21
GLD 64.50 - 64.92 ( 65.00, 65.40)
USO 48.29 - 49.43
GG 24.03 - 24.75
The limits will/can enlarge as time goes.

QQQQ has hit 42.60 dam close to our target. Watch for possible turnaround.
1220ET appears to be a turnaround time and GOLD is not at new highs. I am not thrilled with this: 1234ET
Well QQQQ seems to have used the 42.60 as a turnaround point 13:41ET
Good Trading

Update

Dear Readers QQQQ has a EMA support at 42.84 on the closing basis. opening time is a turnaround time ( high or low) . Watch carefully

Update

Dear Readers Energy and GOLD are mounting assault on the Stock Market, Irates market is not supporting Stocks, So the down day is looking more likely. Watch the Limits for turn around or if not reached that also says something weakness/strength Good Trading

Back To Drawing Board

Dear Readers, For Today... The Stock Market saw the ECO numbers of this morning as benign and may want to play it as a positive development. So, the possibility of initial morning move fade may not be the sole alternative to consider, perhaps there is a place for an initial move not to fade and continue the same into afternoon. Be careful until we get to the limits and see what happens there. Nothing changed for 25-28 washout expectation though. Good Trading


Gold Rocket Has Left the Station




Dear Readers, our pressure gages indicate that washout of the stock decline is ahaid of us, so stay with shorts and use prudent stops and/or initiate stops against the limits ( will be given later). Gold Rocket, meanwhile has left the station as projected. Enjoy the jeorney, but keep reasonable stops, arrival time 25-28 destination 670-730. If things get crazy 870-900 ( not likely for now). All the rest as prgnosticated. Silver shell/will do better for next couple days, but trail thereafter. Currencies as indicated moving higher and YEN could join them soon in doing so, even though it has declined last couple days( also as projected). Good Trading
Dear Danno, read commets

Thursday, March 15, 2007

Limits

Dear Readers limits for today:
QQQQ 42.58 - 43.23
GLD 63.73 - 63.74
Gold Is Running! 64.40,64.60,64.90 are possible 10:57 ET
Timing wise 11:45ET chacne for a top , remember though, gold is going higher into Mar 25-28 , at least, 10:59 ET
Could be we have bottom in gold at 13:45 or so, 63.93 must not break for that 13:56ET
USO 48.88 - 49.68
GG 23.67 - 24.44
GOod Trading
We got this from JIM See the comments
Jim Taylor, JD said...
Sell NYSE 9025 & R2K 784,3/15/2007 7:50 AM
Since then here NYSE has topped at 9014 and
R2K topped at 782,74, So Far , Not bad...(boris)

Pressure Gages Low




Dear Readers , we are now in a low pressure environment, both by and sell pressures are low, which favors the average pressure views, which indicates that we are in the bottoming phase and it will not end until the buy pressure gage has reached another "extreme high" position ( washout phase). So, on and off let us watch the bottoming play out into the end of March, early April period. Gold will bottom out faster as stated and that could be in place or will come in place until Friday 3/16. YEN is still the king and will be dictating what is going on. When Yen starts a slower and deliberate move up into May the markets could respond by calming down. What scared the "carry-trade" is the fast moves in YEN. Good Trading

Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Limits

Dear Readers limits for today:
QQQQ 42.16 - 42.75
GLD 63.47 - 64.08
USO 48.82 - 49.06
GG 22.48 - 24.07
GOod Trading

Sorry Computer Problem

Dear Readers, Due to the computer problem, fixing it... I will be late or have no pressure update today, but nothing has changed in terms of the timing and outlook. Cause yesterday market went down , Buy pressure must have increased in the stock market, which means you still have a day( means today) or two to see the lows worked out. So, monitor carefully and watch limits. Gold bottoming next two days. Watch the gold.
Heads UP. sometime between here and next Tuesday YEN could have a big move lower, before it resumes slower clime up. Be careful as that will mark a/the low for risk markets for a while.
GOod Trading

Tuesday, March 13, 2007

Limits

Dear Readers limits for today:
QQQQ 42.77 - 43.25
break 42.66 and 42.50 42.25 is looking at us, So far held on a 5 min chart closing basis 12:39 PM ET.
GLD 64.11 - 64.97
USO 49.40 - 49.84
GG 24.54 - 25.10
GOod Trading

Is it Here?




Dear Readers, we have, last few days promised and "threatened" that the "carry trade" unravelling will come back and cause the markets to go down. So, far even though YEN is stronger ( last couple days) the markets have been able to resist the move lower. Well today could be different, cause the Sell Pressure in SPX is looking like it has reached the "Mature" stage and can cause the decline all on it's own. Just see our last couple posts to see what all this means. Good Trading

Monday, March 12, 2007

Limits(Sorry being late)

Dear Readers limits for today:
QQQQ 42.58 - 43.33
GLD 63.73 - 64.39
USO 49.99 - 51.44
GG 24.24 - 50.16
GOod Trading

YEN FINDS YEN

Dear Readers, YEN is surging. Perhaps it wants to grant our wish.
Good Trading

When Pressure Looks Neutral...



Dear Readers at this point the Buy And Sell Pressures look somewhat neutral, which on it's own means that markets could go any direction they are wished and/or pushed. So what could push the markets? I think the YEN will still loom as a decisive factor to watch, wherever it moves the risk assets move opposite( that includes all usual suspects Stocks/METALS/Currencies(other than YEN)) etc. So nothing much is changed from our earlier posts, we expect down or sideways ( at best) risk markets until 18-19 of March. Good Trading

Saturday, March 10, 2007

Friday, March 09, 2007

Limits

Dear Readers limits for today:
QQQQ 42.58 - 43.71
GLD 64.29 - 65.51
USO 50.99 - 51.44
GG 24.73 - 25.43
Is faking over? they waited for employment numbers to fool everybody and now fading all markets? C'bueno.

GOod Trading

Get Ready to tumble?



Dear Readers, last couple days markets insisisted on moving a bit higher, which was expected as the retracment of 40-50% was reasonable in all markets (gold/stocks/energy/currencies-against JPY etc.). So, are we ready to go down again, I think so. Will it happen today, I am not sure, but we will be acting the scenario described, here, last couple daily posts, between 12-19 or March. Where could we go wrong? If JPY keeps going down, we will be proven wrong.
Good Trading

Thursday, March 08, 2007

Limits

Dear Readers limits for today:
QQQQQ 42,13 - 43.76
GLD 65.20 - 64.64
USO 51.26 - 51.76
GG 25.32 - 25.96
Please note the danger to our forecast is that
YEN keeps going down. Well, We think probability
of that is less than 30%
Good Trading

Now What?



Dear Readers What Now? Ok, look at the CYan lines, they seem to be approaching the highs established in the lows of mid of last year. Can it go higher, yes it can and that would mean the stock market going lower. We do not believe the lows have been established yet, and whatever number of days it takes the test of and/or actual new lows will be seen before long. Yen has rallied overnight and with it all markets, including GOLD. We believe though the YEN will strengthen again it will not be long before we see that. No change on the forecast, GOLD should make another move lower into 12-19 of March and higher thereafter and the rest of the thinking stays the same as well. Good Trading

Wednesday, March 07, 2007

Limits

Dear Readers today's Limits:
QQQQ 42.58 - 43.10
GLD 63.65 - 64.40
( its highly likely top is in for gold that ought to last for 5-7 trading days. No new or just marginally new low, below 635, is expected) If we are wrong on this one then GOLD will break this mornings high and not look back
YEN ANIMAL WOKE UP AND GOLD/STOCKS/ALL Heading down except YEN, We thought so 15:58 ET , good night
USO 49.99 - 50.99
GG 25.08 25.91
Good Trading

Where are we?



Dear Readers current picture is not a lot changed from yesterday, so most/all yesterdays comments and timing apply today. We are not out of woods and will work lower or sideways for stocks gold energy as Yen resumes the upward move. This could be starting today/tomorrow. Good Trading

Tuesday, March 06, 2007

Getting What We Wished

All Markets are UP ( Almost) except Japanese Yen. That was our prediction for the bounce and we get it. Remember though this is just a bounce for many markets, especially Stock Market and even GOLD, there should be one more scary move down for GOLD before it restarts move up into the end of March. Good Trading

Limits

Dear Readers today's Limits:
QQQQ 41.58 - 43.28
GLD 63.62 - 64.03
USO 48.93 - 50.97
GG 24.89 - 25.78
Good Trading

Buy Pressure enormous, but no signal yet



Dear Readers, the buy pressure is enormous in stock markets. The real buy though comes when the buy pressure line crosses or about to cross the Cyan ( average by pressure line). This could happen with one very good day of rally. That may not be the end of the decline, but that would indicate beginning of slowdown in the sell off. Gold may also enjoy the bounce as discussed before 5/6 March time frame is where we expect low ( most likely the low, but it could be a local low). Same goes for Energies and EURO and BP. Japanese Yen as predicted is weakening a bit, but will resume rise in a day or two and will be the strongest asset for next month. Good Trading

Monday, March 05, 2007

Limits

Dear Readers today's Limits:
QQQQ 40.81 - 43.30
USO 48.90 - 52.10
GLD 62.71 - 63.30
GG 24.31 - 25.17
Good Trading

Where is Pressure?


Dear Readers, the pressure charts clearly indicate the buy pressure building, but this is not enough. The buy pressure must finally drop down below Cyan line ( average buy pressure) before we can think that bottom is forming. Initial low must be in works for next 2 days 5/6 March. That goes for GOLD and currencies ( EURO/BPOUND etc) and top in JPY. Temporary one, of course. Act two will come later, but GOLD may not go down in that act, stocks should though. Good Trading

Sunday, March 04, 2007

TA100 and Shekel

Dear Readers, TA100 Israel stocks index has hit the projected high of 1015 and is now in decline. The immediate support is at 943 and next one 863. Not sure if we go to 863, but it is more than 50/50 chance. Shekel will eventually reach 3.80 or lower this year. Good Trading

Friday, March 02, 2007

How Do You S(M)ell Top?



Dear Reader, Remember This Projection from December 2006? Well Now see the update. Picture speaks for itself(drk DOW, Red ProjectedDOw). So how do you S(m)ell Top? Just learn how to smell YEN... Good Trading

Limits, who cares, I am late(: :)

Dear Readers Limits for today:
QQQQQ 42.43 - 43.44
GLD 64.39 - 65.00
USO 51.11 - 51.76
GG 25.11 - 26.38
Things could Melt up as YEN goes Lower. watch out.
Smart thing to do is to stay above the high limits
with stops
Wathc the YEN, move up will casue melt down again.
move down will cause melt up of sorts. 10:38 ET
Possible bottom time today 12:00 - 12:40 PM ET
With perhaps temporary top in YEN.
Good Trading

Close to temporary Bottom



Dear Readers, Carry trade victims Stocks/GOLD, Energy to lesser extant are attempting to find the bottom. I think they will do so, in next couple days, most likely Monday/Tuesday ( Mar 5/6 ), even thought the bottom may prove to be wide, i.e. we could have bottomed already, but are unable to get up. Currencies are declining as stated before, except YEN of course.

Thursday, March 01, 2007

Limits

Dear Readers, Limits for today.
QQQQ 42.00 - 42.90
GLD 65.60 - 66.93
USO 49.72 - 51.61
GG 25.28 - 27.12
We could have hit bottom for couple days. 10:18 ET
GOod Trading

Still Off The Chart



Dear Readers Sell Pressure is still of the charts(low), and buy pressure, though still high, has come down. We do not think the end is in sight yet. This is because the carry trade is still in the process of unwinding and we are monitoring it. It will gyrate and so will the markets(ALL!) with it. We hope to be able to announce its demise, so stay tuned. I said ALL above that means ALL. Nothing changes from my previous forecasts until this process is complete target day for now... Early March.
Good Trading