Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Need To confirm Downturn

These stocks can go down hard if they can generate long Down Candle(80% chance to make money,historical)
These stocks can fly if they can generate Long Up Candle today( 80% chance to make money, historical)

Hi Boris, Here's what the trendline charts look like after yesterdays action...Regards,Mark L.

Dear Readers, Sometime today or next 2 days we need to confirm this
downtrend and during that time we can monitor and play a bit with limits, but things are not clear from the pressure chart point of view , until we get the confirmation on the downside. As the Summation and Pressure charts show they could enter the BUY signal in one day ( -2 for summation blue line), that is how powerful the downdraft of yesterday was. Fed Appeared to indirectly defend the Dollar Yesterday ( or speculators it favors being long in Dollar). In either case it knowingly disappointed the markets. Which could confirm my contention that this entire "credit crunch" is nothing but engineered event to collect more money from would be home buyers ( and current in home suckers with adjusting ARMs) going forward. It does not hurt either that the brokerage banking companies got people playing short term market signals and they public can only lose there, no questions asked...
Please Read the Charts at the link on the right hand side( Thanks Ivan Curak) Asset Group Rotation
Dear Readers, it was announced that the central BANKS OF THE WORLD make coordinated effort to ease the LIBOR rates! ( BOY THEY HAVE SHORT TERM TEADERS BOHICAD)
I believe Central Banks Are after certain speculators, those that think YEN will skyrocket and trying to discredit them and then quickly taking YEN higher anyway.


brandon said...

Morning all,

I wanted to connect two thoughts I've previously stated. I do respect Boris' suggestion that this 'credit crunch' might be overstated.

But yesterday I posted
1) a news headline that Fannie and Freddie weren't going to buy deliquent loans anymore. (instead of waiting 120 days, now the loan has to be in default 24 months, before they will now buy it/pay insurance claims on it). I found this a strange action given recent 'HopeNow' efforts. (They also increased their insurance and origination % by .25 to compensate for recent turmoil in the markets, so they are collecting the Fed's .25% cut from yesterday)

2) I suggested that WashMu might be in short-term trouble. (which is kinda obvious at the price)

But later I thought the two post might be more related than I first thought. Maybe what Fannie and Freddie are saying is: 'We are cutting the umbilical cord with WashMu.'(their biggest private business partner)

I think WashMu (& others) might be using FRE and FNM for cash flow, as loans become worth less. If required cash is cut-off, they might be in a different stage soon.

Good day, good trading.

boris said...

Dear Brandon,
Just a small correction. I think it is manufactured to some extent. To say that it is nonexistant or overstated is wrong. What I say is that it manageable within the FED's context, but in terms of the time and place it is "manufactured" to be properly timed...

Good Trading

Jason said...

I agree Boris. Something this big had to be more than "ooops, did I do that" moment.
I was wondering if maybe the crushing of the USD over the past 6-7 years was a set up for foreign companies to start investing in the US. It is now much cheaper for a European company to pay salaries in the US than in Europe.
Any thoughts anyone?

Jason said...


How long due you think it will take for the jaws to shut on the Oscillator chart you posted?

It also looks like, to the novice eye, that many currency pairs are setting up H&S/Inv. H&S situations signaling potential coming strength in the USD.


boris said...

Dear Jason,
Thanks for thoughtfull comments and Yes people now may notice shoulders building. We fore(saw) it a year ago, exactly at this time.

THanks again. for Good Observations.
Good Trading

curaki said...

What happened couple minutes ago?

Jason said...


I just read something about BOC, BOE and some other central banks are cutting a deal with the FED. Sorry don't know the details of what they are doing.


curaki said...

Hi Boris/Jason,

boris said...

Dear Curak(Ivan) no problem, welcome.

GOod Trading

mlytle said...

Futures are indicating as much as a 62% retrace is possible..don't go short until you are really sure the upcoming rally is finished...

Good trading

Mark L.

mlytle said...

This rally looks very suspect, looks engineered...Fed (PPT) at work...

Mark L.

czman said...


I'm not sure whether it matters if it is the FED, institutions, or individuals who buy a market. Whoever it is, the effect on my pocketbook is the same. I held on to my shorts overnight--what a huge mistake. This crazy market swings 2.5% in both directions in 48 hours. Unbelieveable. I'm going to start trading the 25 tick chart, instead of the hourly! :)

mlytle said...

This is a wild market, that's for sure...

Mark L.

boris said...

Dear Czman,
They are hoping to feed on short term traders that get relaxed after having few points profit. That is the idea.

That is how they will get most of liquidity back. By taking it from the impatient.

Please be nimble and either stay out or be extremely flelxible.

Good Trading

Sqroot said...

I think this situation goes back to an earlier post of mine about deflation. If you have money available (Fed), but no one wants to borrow it, markets freeze up and you have a recession, maybe worse. What to do - force them to borrow. Have an auction on money (competition), the highest bidder gets money to lend, their competitors don't.
IMO the world markets are very close to being out of control.

Blaine said...

It's obvious we don't have a free market. It is central-planned. Who would have thought we would see this? I expected a bounce, but this is ridiculous.

Mark L,
Was 1506 the top? That was about a 62% retrace of yesterday.

mlytle said...


I suspect it was the top, yes..

Mark L.

waldo said...

It sure looks like the smart money is selling into this bull trap. waldo.

mlytle said...

I agree with your point, markets are in trouble..just as you described..

Mark L.

Jim Taylor, JD said...

Hi Boris,

Looking for a Bounce tomorrow at:

13225 DOW (115 sq)
2601 NAZ (51 sq)
2025 NDX100 (45 sq)

Friday-A breach of these levels will shift markets into CRASH MODE.

Best Regards,



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