Monday, November 26, 2007

Thanks For Being With Us

Dear Readers, The National SOPITALIST Casino is closed for today. We did not trade. Bias was higher and we did not get it. The scenario outlined though is still alive which says the rally into Late November to Dec 3rd and then decline into mid, mid-late Dec. This expected rally could go 50/60% fib retracement of the declines for all indices. Supportive of the same scenario is an outlook( still) for YEN , which implies the decline into Nov 28 - Nov 30 and then rise into mid, late-mid Dec. Same scenario , more or less, for EURO/CHF and, obviously inverse for $USDollar. Our scenarios do not always work out, but we have the limits and trading experience to save us when that is the case. By the way, outlook for GOLD is almost the same as the stock market ( GOLD GOING down into Dec 15-20?). Around the same time mid-late Dec we could have Dollar also rally a bit before final decline into late Dec, perhaps early Jan. Remember Never be a slave of the preconception of "scenarios". You saw today, I was not in the bullish mood even as the "scenario" called for one. Market is bigger than any scenario we can think of and we must be ready. To support the scenario we have and also to negate it and I brought my negations in today's post.

Good Trading
Hi Boris, Well, today was the day we originally thought should be the bottom, and the $SPX indeed managed to get to a lower point than last week. On the $SPX chart you can see an additional trendline I have added in dark Blue. It turns out that with time plotted as a logarithm sometimes price demonstrates additional trendlines not visible when price data is plotted in the ordinary way. Likewise, the $NDX has penetrated into one of it's formal Exponential Trendlines and the values for it and the trendline (not shown) below that one are given on the chart. $TRIN is getting rather high again, so tomarrow may see a bounce, although we may see more weakness at the open tomarrow. $nasi and $nysi still have not bottomed, so more weakness may lie ahead. I still have some sort of "feature" sitting out at 11/29/07 + or - 1 day, so it will be interesting to see if the breadth indicators bottom on or about the 29th...Regards,Mark Lytle
Dear Mark good work and congrats for having the fortitude to wait for one more day of low in SPX ( it is full of FINANCIALS... that is what is going down hard. I like BKX to go to 85.85 and be over, but then what is left for DECEMBER SHOW, cancel it(: :)? tickets are non redeemable and show/circus must go on! so said P.T. Barnum),Boris


waldo said...

For such a dramatic selloff, the bullish percentage held fast with the exception of financials which was down 2 points. Bullish percentage is the lowest since 2003 on the financials.

Blaine said...


Remember our target is for the BKX to hit $85.85. It closed at $88. That would be a 2.4% decline from here, which could happen tomorrow morning.

I bought a bunch of Citi calls today once it dipped below $30. I can't ignore 5-year lows in Dow components no matter how scared I am. And if Citi implodes, I hope they lose the data on my credit card and student loan.

waldo said...

I sold all my puts today and started scaling in calls on the dow. Most indicators I looked at at the close looks like a bottom if it plays out like august. I sure hope so, looking for a run to 13,350 on the dow before heading lower again. Waldo.

Blaine said...

I promise I didn't know anything about the Citi - Abu Dhabi news today. I just got lucky. But this may start a new trend of equity investments in America by foreigners. A lot of money is out there just dying to buy America on the cheap.

The dollar is up 1% tonight and the Yen has climbed (weakened) to 108.30.

daveo said...

Waldo, good call (like the pun). I went long in my 401k at the close, too chicken to buy es contracts. I like your target, it meshes with Boris' 62% retracement. Good Trading.

voltaire said...

One of the scariest things I hear is "it looks just like August as far as indicators go" etc.

Now I sometimes say it myself, but the odds are 99:1 that the end result will be different.

The market likes to set people up with "obvious" outcomes.

Finding patterns on a distant historical basis is a little different as most are ignorant of anything not on the chart in front of them.

Even then, the best you can hope for is a rough approximation, not perfection.