Friday, October 19, 2007

Thanks For Being With Us


Dear Readers, The National SOPITALIST Casino is closed for today.
Special thanks to all contributors. We are still under assumption that the YELLOW BRICK ROAD is followed, but within the WHITE BRICK ROAD was supposed to create the disruption just around this time OCT 19-21. Let us hope that it is nothing like the 1987 counterpart, but we can not rule it out. Our pitiful attempt today Yielded us -4c. Nothing to speak about, but a loss nevertheless. I guess I was struck with a BULL virus... In any case, I honestly think that there is a reason, why we are "lead" to believe that this is another 1987 and we could come next week , with all the shorts being squeezed. My conspiratorial instincts tell me exactly that. Could be wrong, of course, but If YEN is indeed stopped here, I can not see how the Market could tank. Also, the YEN indicator GOLD seems to have taken the entire thing OK. So if there is another 1987 it will have to come from something different from YEN.
Now, before we all forget, we started selling before anybody was... Remember my shorts went against me for a day or so... OK, then I got virus and abandoned my short positions with some gains. We would still be short if I liked the RISK/REWARD ratio. I did not. So, it is not who is selling and buying? it is about who is making money when the money is tallied up at the end of the year and how much risk did they take to get that. What we do here is exceptional and has not been seen anywhere. We try to make Dollars, risking pennies... I would love others replicate this playing with open cards like we do. We even suggested couple shorts much higher from here, with awesome precision high limits, but Me personally being busy with currencies, I could not follow up. In short, I do not see myself advising anybody, I see myself caring about their money and try to teach good trading habits. If we make money along the way that is fine. Main goal is to learn trading, I bet you most "advisers" have no Idea what trading is all about. It has nothing at all to do with market forecasting. It has all to do with trade management, I said this million times, and here it is again. And "surprisingly enough" this is coming from a guy that foretold the events months ahead, in public for all classes of assets Ha... Meaningless... that is all that forecasting is. If I can not see manageable trade, I do not do it.

9 comments:

John said...

Today,
I noticed a little bit of tension on the board today. I know I am new here but nobody was hurt, nobody got killed. The rest is just a game.
Old John

Mark P said...

Hi Boris and everyone,

Now that the market has shown its hand a little bit I wish to add some explaination to the charts that boris posted for me.

With regards to the Yen, while it has broken above the trendline, the market has only put in three waves so far off the August lows. Elliot says we need five. This suggests that we are in a bigger more complex wave 4 off of the August lows that will take more time to complete, but a crash shouldn't be happening at this moment, so don't short the farm yet.

As for the Apple chart, it broke down today but is not a short yet because it is still in no-mans- land. The first thing I want to point out about this is if you check out the options chain for the October contracts on AAPL (Quotemedia.com is good for this), look at the put column. Notice the large number of contracts from the 170 strike and below. From the 175 strike and up the number of contracts drops of dramatically. Now look at what AAPL did today. The low of day was exactly 170.00 and closed a few cents above. What does this mean? - It means alot of people got SCREWED TODAY!!! The stock was placed at that price as it was the price that profited the option sellers the most as the vast majority of the contracts closed out of the money. The lesson here is that you sometimes can use the option table to your advantage by seeing where the big drop off in contracts occurs to get a sense as to where a stock or index might be on options friday. It doesn't always work, but to be honest, I was looking at this one last night and it was a no brainer.

Now, as for the stock, it isn't a confirmed downtrend until it breaks below the D leg (169ish). Also notice that if you extend the broken trendline, it would intersect the Fib price target of 179ish Tuesday morning (earnings are night before). If the stock spikes up to the underside of the broken trendline tuesday morning, this would be a low risk short entry.

Hope we make some money.

Mark P

xerxes said...

Hello Boris....
During the trading day on Friday you mentioned that your gauges were still pointing up but if there was a 1.5% movement those gauges would become confusing.....As the indices moved more than that 1.5% are you still sticking with upward advances in the near-term?

I went short DXD this morning as I believe the charts show that a waterfall decline has arrived as some of the other perspicacious bloggers here have noted...

I'm confident of my bet....but after following your blog these last months, I'm a bit nervous going against your gauges :-)

John said...

The FXI

I looked at the chart and being a newbie I noticed a gap down to the 190 area from the other day. Will it head down to fill this gap
Old JOhn

Sqroot said...

Most gaps are filled... but when, that is the question.
You're the best Boris, as always thanks for all you do. Have a great weekend and lets do it to 'em again next week.

Sqroot said...

FWIW from Tim Knight:
"Today was a terrific day for the bears, with the Dow down well over 300 points. Unless something big happens this weekend, I'm looking to jump out of my index puts soon after the opening bell, since I see a lot of support around these levels. A short, sharp drop would be nice."h

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,

You are not going against the Gages. If you reread the "ChartReading" you will understand that the gages have a built felxibility to go with the flow. What does that mean. When the gages give you a buy signal, it could be the worst time to buy, cause the buy without confirmation is bad, but buy with a 1.5% against it down move is even a worse indication that "the buyers want to buy this market even lower". Remember there is alwasy 2 more days to either buy or sell, which means every time the market moves down ( in this case) it just postphones the buy decision by another 2 days... Same is true on the upside.

Remember this is how we kept ourselves short in July down turn. We kept saying two more days to confirm and the market kept going down, keeping us short.

Market prices dictate and Gages will comply. Now the undisputed fact is that as we move lower the buy pressure is growing, but as long as it is growing we keep being short...

I hope this is understood and if it is not even after rereading " charreading" let me know and I will try to explain better what the GAGES mean.

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear Readers,Xerxes,
Just to complet the thougth about GAGES,
So, what do you do when the gages are telling you that there is 1-2 more days of selling( in this case)/buying possible.

Here is what you do. Since you are expecting that the turnaround is almost at hand you are looking for Low Limits, like today and try to grab the turning market... That is as simple as that. You may fail once or twice ( with minimal loss or no loss if you are really good/fast trader ), but then you will catch the real one and you will put couple $ dollars in you pocket...

That is how it works folks.

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Thanks Boris...

Could you kindly post somewhere your chart reading explanations somewhere on your blog where I can easily find it for reference...