Thursday, November 30, 2006

That is all she wrote

That is all she wrote for today.
44.24 was obviously the best
sell today, but we chose to sell
first at 43.85. But hopefully we got
either additional or first re-shorts
at 44.24. Close 44.04. Not bad
20 points heads up for tomorrow
Friday. Main story CVX rejected at or
around 72.89 ( high 72.96 close 72.32)
As indicated the decline in major
OILstocks if/likely forthcoming the SPX
that showed strength will follow down.
Gold did it's thing, even though we got
long in gold we could not get others as
that happened early European morning
time.
Good Trading.

It's a free trade stop 44.24

Stay if you want to. We do stay
with the mornings short 1/3.

It's a free trade stop 44.24

Stay if you want to. We do stay
with the mornings short 1/3.

It's a free trade stop 44.24

Stay if you want to. We do stay
with the mornings short 1/3.

QQQQ stop at 44.29

QQQQ stop down at 44.28

OILstocks are driving SPX

OILstocks are/were driving SPX
past couple days. If their support
is lost, see below, then the market
could tank.

short 1/3 QQQQ at 44.24

If you were with us on original shorts
and have profits, and missed reshorting
early this morning, reshort now with a
7 cent protection

Watch CHEVRON, WALL at 72.89

So far so good, CVX has hit 72.63 and
XOI is at 1212.81 just shai of 1230
last top.
Careful here. Keep you guard up.
Good Trading

Yes! 44.25 has proven to be WALL

QQQQ has been rejected at 44.25.
Now 14:00 - 15:00 pm may be a bottom
instead of top.
Good Trading

QQQQ stops here 44.25 or 44.50

QQQQ must stop here or 44.50
becomes reality. There seems to be
enough time for QQQQ to attempt
further rally (upto 14:00PM ).
Good Trading

going for top 14:00 15:00

Looks like we are going for a top
at 14:00 ~ 15:00

stop 1/3 of QQQQ at 44.55

Think of this as continuation of the
original short from 44.55 with a profit
of 17 cents in between 44.85-44.68.
Good Trading

carful OIL, Approaching Wall

Please be careful with oil stocks/XOI.
we are approaching a wall of resistance
here. Big oil CVX/XOM/COP/PTR etc
are at the resistances ( Especially first two).
XOI is approaching 122 ( fatal level,
remember our article on XOI, see it below)
What do you do? Keep an eye on things and
keep the 27% rule in place for 1/4 of the
positions long previously adviced.
Either we will turn down here or there
is real bad news coming geopolitically which
will send OIL+OILSTOCKS to higher
resistance (attraction ) points.
Good Trading

reshort 1/3 QQQQ at 43.85


Most dangerous day!Today...
If the market surges it would have avoided the death. Tomorrow, also important, but less so.
Tune in for intraday updates
Good Trading

Wednesday, November 29, 2006

Reshort QQQQ 43.67

Not expected, but placing sell stop in.

Not Bad! 43.68 was bottom?

take 1/3 of QQQQ profits, 43.68

Let's use the profits for next round
of shorting, hopefully higher.
Good Trading

wounded and dangerous I

The Stock Market is wounded and dangerous.
It is from these kind of oversold levels
that market has been able to rise, for last
3 months. I do not see high probability for
New highs this time, but shorts must be
carefully monitored and Market needs to be
given time/space to fail in the rally before
declaring it dead.
Keep Shorts with a 44.55 stop on 1/3 QQQQ.
Keep Long GOLD/XOI/EURO and short $USDOLLAR
with 27% retracement rule.

wounded and dangerous

Tuesday, November 28, 2006

take 1/3 profits EURO, 131.80

take 1/3 of profits on BKX 111.90

QQQQ 1/3 stop down at 43.64

Market Have Changed

Is the top in place?
Not 100% sure, but it all happened
perfectly in time ans space, so it
is hard to argue otherwise, when most of
the leading securities/indices make
a synchronized effort to signal top...
As far as the profits go we do not care.
We are riding, QQQQ ( 2/3 position ) short,
EURO ( full position ) long, GOLD/XOI ( 1/4
position ) long.
Keep stops as outlined 27% retracement for
GOLD/XOI/EURO and 44.55 for QQQQ.
Good Trading

TOP In Place?

Monday, November 27, 2006

QQQQ 2/3 stop 44.55, Ride the train

long term protfolio, sell trusts, sell 5% pipelines

take 1/3 qqqq profits now

Those short bkx, stops at 114

place half stop at 44.50 half at 44.55

cancell all stops

qqqq stop now at 44.50

collect 1/2 profits at QQQQ at 44.27

very important to break 44.41

QQQQ stop at 44.55, breakeven

Sold qqqq at 44.55. stop at 44.65

Jig Is Up, Folks

Jig is up for the markets. They seemed to go up,
last week, only by discounting in $US. But now
it could be going down on the absolute bases.
No help even from the melting Dollar.
As PRESSURE chart below shows, strong rally
is impossible from this low level of buy
pressure and the average pressure points up.
We need/have a sell-off. No hesitation, use your
favorite shorting method to sell, but be fast on
your feet to cover if market rebounds. Strength
of that sell-off and strength of the following
rally, will show if top is in place.
DAX/FTSE/TA100 seem to form perfect tops!
Good Trading

No Help, Going Down,

Friday, November 24, 2006

Who would believed this morning!

That QQQQ would make high by afternoon.
So, this restless thing does really want
to go to 46+ ha...
Next time for a direction change 13:30pm
Low-High,your guess as good as mine for now
Resistance starts around 45.10 ...
Good Trading

AMERICA FOR SALE!

Look at the "PRESSURE" chart below.
The market has cornered itself.
Few choices here...
1) Last gasp higher, deeper eventual
downturn(cross of cyan by red line ).
2) Or immediate dive
Not waiting for any of this, our pride,
the symbol of Americas strength, $Dollar,
has taken the historic beating lately.
What a present to fellow brothers Americans,
by inapt "managers" of our economy/country.
That, by the way, includes both Dems/Reps.
So Ironic, on this day of celebration of freedom
from EUROPE, the $dollar tanks.
Thank god, we are out/or short stocks+$dollar,
long OILS/GOLD and fully long EURO...

Market Cornered Itself

Wednesday, November 22, 2006

Happy Turky Day America!

I wish all Americans ( that includes me )
happy and healthy
thanksgiving day. Enjoy it.
Just remember greed has no limits. Stick
with me. We can fight the greedy to
keep what is rightfully ours.
Good Trading

Nobody Forget, Resistance Attracts

I wish that were not true.
In any case, NASD has an "attraction"
( I like this word better... do you.)
to 46-47 area and that could also bring
GOOG to around 550 and FXI ( china ETF )
to ~100 that would be a "fatal attraction".
Markets are meandering as suspected, but
QQQQ is going for it.
Real story of today...
America On Sale!
Looked the US $Dollar.
Do not you dear to touch the EURO Longs
and $Dollar shorts. Keep them.
The rest of the recomendations, steady as
she goes.
Good Trading.

Please Note.... BUY-SELL-PRESSURE CHART

It is there everyday. Just look for it as the first
posting of the given day.
Good Trading

better hold this 44.30 or 44.16 is next

Support here at 44.47 and 44.40

Support here for QQQQ and better one
at 44.40

Rally unlikely

Look at the chart below ( CLICK TO ENLARGE).
We have never yet had a rally on this chart
with this low level of buy-pressure readings.
So we do not expect now. What could happen
though is that due to the low volume holiday
trading we could see a drift. In general
though next 2-4 days favour downdraft.
Good Trading

Still Volnurable

Tuesday, November 21, 2006

this trendline holding up every pullback

The trendline connecting the yesterday
15pm low today 11am and 2pm low is
holding up this rally, a close below
could be significant.
Not much time left though to really
tank the market.
Good Trading

Ok Just about even today

Very low volume seems to make this
market difficult to trade. There
are very few follow through moves after
the morning.
Good Trading

stop is now at 44.48

This would avoid stampede if
44.50 is hit. 3 cents risk
Good Trading

44.50 could actually be a go long signal?

I am not playing that game though.
Not at this time, however profitable.
Good Trading.

stop is at 44.50 now

5 cent risk, Good Trading

took a short at 44.45 again

7 cents stop loss 44.52

13PM is possible top

13PM is a possible timeframe for a top.
Need to watch.
Good Trading

"Do NOT LOSE WHEN GOING FOR BIG ONE"

We made some/little money today. Suspected
the 44.25 could form low, but remember.
We do not play for few cents.
We play for no loss and potential big
win. So, we took a quick profit on 1/2
of the positions and let the other 1/2
ride for a big one. Many times this does
not work, but when it does you can sit
for months in a position and count money.
So, the biggest thing is...
"Do NOT LOSE WHEN GOING FOR BIG ONE"
Good Trading

Remember 46~47 is QQQQ resistance

We have mentioned this already.
46 47 area is where the resistance
is for QQQQ, so it is likely that
QQQQ will "spook" the markets for
this thanksgiving and go there.
Good Trading

stop back to 44.45

Let this market retrace more than
62% if it wants to take us out and
make the statement of strength.
That still makes us profits.
Good Trading

Now the stop goes back 44.39

No regrets if market wants to go higher
so be it.
Make the money move on.
Regards,

raising stop to 44.44

We got the gains to support
this higher protection
Good trading.

qqqq has bounced from support at 44.25

Unless it breaks this and moves lower
it could be that market has put the low
for today. So we get the low at 11 instead
of high? ( I doubt it ).

took half profit at 44.27

leaving anohter half at 44.39 stop

looks like a good reversal,

We took a short position
on a break of 110 5 min bar
average break. Risking only 11 cents
from the high of today.

A strong reversal here could be signal we need

Watch for a strong reversal here, it comes
you may have a signal to sell, if it is
not a strong signal, do not short
this market.
GOod trading

Market In a vulnerable position

Monday, November 20, 2006

as scary as it is market is doing as told

as scary as it is market is doing as told.
It faked the morning drop, went to resistance
4.40 got rejected and meandering higher
towards the close. Bravo Market, good kid!
Now, if it could only start dropping tomorrow
morning at 10~11 AM that would be perfect.

Good Trading

Usual song and dance

Market is doing an usual song and
dance. It was rejected at 44.40 area
and as we thought, and still think,
it will meander or go higher
until 10-11AM tomorrow.
Only event that could change this
outlook will be a drop below 43.90
by QQQQ.
Good Trading

morning fakeout

Market has made another fake out down
move this morning, and moved higher.
This means that it will move or meander
higher until tomorrow 10~11AM. and
then move lower.
At the resistance now at 44.36
Good trading

Biggest Bank Heist

GO TO -> Biggest Bank Heist, Dreams Come True For Best

Friday, November 17, 2006

Out of Gas, but a lot of inertia

The buying is almost nonexistent at this
time, the markets are moving on inertia,
which can not be ignored. See graph below.
So, give it a time to show signs of weakness
before selling the indices. You know market
needs 1-4 days to work this condition off.
Then another rally... if that rally is weak then
we can think of the top at hand, which
for now could be moving out to Nov23-Dec12
period. With the market having another 3-7%
upside. Why am I not wildly bullish,
because I do not live for 3-7% potential.
We are close to being profitably stopped out of
remaining GOLD/XAU positions and OIL
stocks. So be it, take the profits and move on.
The long EURO, short dollar position must
have stopped with a small profit as well.

Long portfolio, no changes. Trusts are recovering
nicely and pipelines are delivering the profits.

click on the picture to enlarge.
Good Trading

Wednesday, November 15, 2006

break of last hours range will create 2 day run

Whichever way the qqqq breaks the last
hours range can be the direction market
could run madly until 11/17 Friday morning.
If upside is chosen. The goal will be 46.

Good Trading

Next 2 15min bars good time for top

OUT OF GAS

OUT OF GAS
BUY-SELL-PRESSURE is at the extreme
not seen for the period of this chart.
But you know, you can go 10's of miles
before you "really are out of gas".
So, give the market 1-4 days of churn and
see if it is ready for a dive.

Good Trading

BUY-SELL-PRESSURE

Tuesday, November 14, 2006

no pattern for me, going to ~44.00

No Pattern for sell.
Looks like around 44 is where
we go.

Good Trading

Likely Day Top Arrival time 15PM

Most likely arrival time for the
daily top is now 15PM. and the
most likely price
43.73 or 43.83
Look for patterns
at those parameters.
Good Trading

Gave up 7c on a trade look for new

Gave up 7c on a trade look for a favorite
candle pattern to put another short.
43.61 is good resistance and even better 43.73
so try around those.

Just make sure your risk is never more than
10c or so depending on your trading.
This market can do this stupid game for
a long time, so do not give it much money
at all. As told many times, if you do not
have short term patterns and do not trade
with small stops and commissions, you need
to obtain those or stop trading, until you do.
Small commission is under 4c a share.

Good Trading

sell qqqq 20pt stop

Nimble traders sell qqqq at next
5 minute dark candle, place
the protective stop 20 pt above.
More nimble traders watch with
a less than 7pt stop.
Top is forming at 12pm ET.

Good Trading.

tighten all stops to 27%

Please tighten all stops to 27%
That means the XAU/XOI or the
stocks within them + GOLD, EURO
etc.
This is for short term traders.
DO not touch long term PORTFOLIO.

tighten EURO/$ stops again

Please tighten the stops to 27%
retracement of the move.
Looks like $US wants one more
round of silly strength...
Good Trading

Monday, November 13, 2006

tighten EURO/$ stops

Please Tighten the USD/EURO
whatever position you hold stops
to 52% retracement of the move,
this should guarantee at least
some profit in case the markets
reverse or remain choppy.
Still on the buy signal on EURO.

Good Trading.

Friday, November 10, 2006

cover another 1/3 of qqqq shorts

Cover another 1/3 of qqqq shorts and
keep the stop 43.25 for the 1/3 left.
There should be profits in those 2/3
shares we covered. And that
should be used to prevent the
loss on the trade if qqqq refuses
to go down for now.
Good trading

take 1/3 qqqq profits now

Take 1/3 qqqq profits now.
Place the buy limit stops at 42.45
for another third
and otherwise keep the buy stop for all that
is left at 43.25.
Good Trading

Thursday, November 09, 2006

Drop the stop loss to 43.25

Please Drop the stop loss to 43.25
( breakeven for me ).

Now... enjoy the free trade?!
Good Trading

bring the stop down to 43.51 on qqqq

bring the stop down to 43.50 on qqqq

Mirror Mirror On The Wall, Sell Them ALL

I have submitted to safehaven.com an article at 8:40 ET today.
It should publish soon.
The idea in it is to sell the QQQQ against 43.30 Year high
with a very small stop loss.
How Small is the stop?
No more than 31 cents, at 43.61
The time for the top should be around 12pm or 15pm
Good trading

Thursday, November 02, 2006

moving, update

Hi, Moving to a new place.
Busy for next 5 days. Will return
to regular schedule in 7 days.

Keep, Euro, long or $Dollar, short
with 80% retracement stop.

Keep 25% leftover trades in
Gold/XAU/Gold stocks and OIL
stocks at 45 % retracement stop.

You would have been stopped from
25% long trusts,
( in trading accounts ) with better
than break even.

Reduce the trusts and pipelines
down to 20% in your long term
portfolio.

Good trading.