Friday, December 08, 2006

qqqq targets

44.15, 44.64 for a top 43.22 4272 low
more modest targets
44 for a top 43.52 low
43.52 was hit already
Good Trading

24 comments:

boris said...

Sorry, Kindspirited, it looks like our scenario will have to , at least wait, as this frkn market cannot seem to be able to give you an exit we want. So the hope is for 12/13 high and then the move we may use to exit.
Hold on buddy. Not all is lost yet.

DXB said...

hello boris.. this is probably very off-topic, but i'm interested in your thoughts..

1. Regarding the statistics and numbers released New York morning time regularly such as today's Labor Employments figures.. i tend to ignore the contents and just react to the direction the markets take (up or down) upon hearing the news.. what are your thoughts on these statistical releases we find on the economic calendar?

2. last couple of days i've taken today's Labor employment figures seriously in order to take a position and see what happens. and the figures came out very bullish for the dollar. but markets went the other way..

to quote one of those useless analysts
"The bearish dollar sentiment we've seen over the last couple of weeks hasn't disappeared with these jobs numbers," said Meg Browne, currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman. The number of jobs added in November was "not that much higher than expected," she said.

payroll came out an extra 32-35% more than expected (consensus was 100 K jobs)

i don't understand how that is not "much higher than expected".

if gold futures went up 35% higher than i expected i imagine i would be farking surprised..

also marketwatch says "The odds of an interest rate cut in early 2007 fell after data showing jobs growth in November was stronger than expected." as reflected by fed funds futures.

i don't ever expect numbers and statistics to make sense but today i decided to be rational about Labor's figures, and it blew in my face haha

whenever u have the time , your comments on official economic figures and their relevance to short-term trading would be very welcome..
thanks for your time

boris said...

Dear dxb,
You got a nerve to ask these kind of questions (: :). All good questions buddy. What you are looking for is what everybody is looking for, how do I connect the information to markets.
Ok, you asked for this...(: :).
There is none, if you ever see or feel the connection between the markets and official data it is completely bogus.

I am not going to go into usual littany of statements that disprove that official data is doctrined and/or otherwise wrong. To begin with there is a real problem in collecting data. How do you measure GDP when there is so much underground economy. Nobody measures this and nobody disagrees that it exists. So what is poor government official to do. He must do what he does collect the data right or wrong or missing...

Now, I do not have inside info, but some people clame that they know, that these numbers are doctrined. I am not or will not be shocked if this is true.

In any case, I am not oblivious to all the data problems, I just can not spend too much time figuring the wright or wrong.

Why? As I said already, many times, for trading and making money this is all unimportant. The markets will do what traders want it to do regardless of the data.
The talking heads though, notice, always will be right in connecting the data to markets, cause they report "what happened" not "what will happen". That is why public is confused. These talking heads are so "correct" all the time, there must be connection between the data/information/rumors and market moves.
Well, there is none.

How can I reliably predict the possible market moves minute/day/week/month/queater/year/decade/or millenium ahead without knowing any information? I do not put myself on the piedestal here. I am just a simple person, with a lot of education. This education is just a context of in which I put my trading experience, but the true statement is this. I could be just a good trader if I did not write and read. As long as I could add and subtruct, multiply and devide and place the trades, I could make money trading.

There. That simple ha...
If you are shocked, that makes two of us. Except I got over my shock some time ago.

You question is very relevant my friend, I see so many people wasting their time and energy in searching the holly grail of trading.

6 year old can trade... That is it.
THnaks Come again,
Very, very insighfull question DXB.
GOod Trading

boris said...

Dar DXB, notice my fingures work faster than my brain. So make sure you read Genglish well, or you will not be able to understand my response(: :)
I can not do any better it is hard to trade and blog...
Thanks, come again

kindspirited said...

Boris, I hate to sell those puts and realize a big loss, but I also think if the Q goes to 45.30 I think it might be better to sell now and buy back then. I did not tell you I took a $40K loss on Nov puts,,, I was seeing housing, retail, autos, inverted yield curve, etc. etc. and thought the stock market would start discounting a recession. Obviously I was wrong, but then bought Jan puts to hope to recoup that loss. what a pickle I am in now... pretty sad.

boris said...

Dear Kindspirited
sitting next to BLOOMBERG terminal at this moment, I see the intraday quotes for qqq+xp 42 put ( that is one of what you have right).
The high 0.10 low 0.02 last 0.05.
I wish I was more forceful with my last Friday call to "GET OUT!!!" to you, but none of us can return the past. I feel your pain, because that is exactly what I try to remove from peoples lives, but at this moment, your pain is more acute than mine, no matter how much, I try. Do what you must do, but my friend, hopefully we can talk sooner next time so that you can return some of the loss back.
God be with you my dear Kindspirited.

kindspirited said...

I read one analyst that seems to make sense write that the only way a market like this is likely to go down, is 1)and external event such as LTCM-like blow up or terrorist even, etc., or 2)a really big spike up to take out all remaining bears. This is not your type of analysis I know, but so far this rational seems on track. EVERY sell off is met with DRAMATIC buying surge, with lots of power. What do you think?

kindspirited said...

Boris, I have 150 Jan 45 puts, and 150 Jan 43 puts. They are trading around 1.35 and .50 respectively. The 45s would collapse on a move to 45.50. Yes, I sure wish I had sold last Friday.

boris said...

Dear DXB,
Our buddy Kindspirited, by his own admission looked at the data and acted. See his comment. Sadly you may have a clarification with is example what I tried to explain to you so many words. Let us make sure that Kindspirited and others do not fall for this BS coming from media any more. Media does it's job. It is driven by interested parties ideas and ignorence, we must do our own homework, actually , totally abstruct from media, if we can help it.
Good Trading

boris said...

Dear Kindspirited,
I stand corrected you are right
45 put H 1.60 L 0.90 C 1.05
43 put H 0.30 L 0.10 C 0.10

Decay is fast especially on 43 puts
Act. Action even bad action makes one free. Freezing is bad for all of us.
Good Luck

James said...

Boris I would like to address Kindspiriteds problem as I feel very bad for them. Rule #1 Never have more than 20% of your TRADING capital in options. 2. Trade them, they are designed to benefit the seller not the buyer. 3. You will go broke trying for the big win that makes you rich the more fundamentally right you feel about a trade the more likely you are to violate #1 and that leads to #3. And yes I learned the hard way. Ill try to help you out If I can but you must promise to follow the rules. I dont have a clear read yet today but I may later and I would hold for now. Best JC

kindspirited said...

I thank you, James.

boris said...

James, Your help is always welcome buddy.
Just a quick idea, all of us may want to think about. If we are going to hold a while, why not do it for 43 puts and collect the 45 puts, while there is still some value to it.
But... see if you can come up with something else...
Keep posting.
GOod Trading

James said...

Thats a good idea Boris. Im afraid they may have the ammo here to hit 44.90. Thats why Im sidelined. They will desparetly defend 44 here even though the daily charts want to roll. You know as well as I they can make the market do anything they want for 5 more days. Best JC

kindspirited said...

I sold 50 of the jan 45s at 1.40, high this am was 1.80!
I put 50 of the jan 43s on sale for .60 (now trading .50/,55). so I am holding 100 of each, but also worried about a run at 45. That for now... sure appreciate any further help!

boris said...

Dear Kindspirit,
At the end you must pull the trigger. We are your friends and want the best for you. At the end though you will have to be responsible for all the decisions you will make in this saga. I will tell you why this is important... it will show that you have grown on you probelms. It will show that you will follow the rules James put in for you and this will be your last loss trade that you lost the controll of.
I am with you mentally and bodily, but I want you to make a decision.
Good Luck , Good Trading and come back to grow with us.

kindspirited said...

I agree.... thank you so much!

boris said...

Dear Kindspirited,
Understand this is not about trading anymore, it is a war with yourself and faster you got over it faster you will get your sanity back, which the commodity you need so much at this point. The rules James was giving you that you will not fall in this situation again , where instead of thinking how to trade, you think how to survive. You mental capacity maybe the most valuable capacity that you will need now and in the future and to not do anything to cause too much damage to it.
It is good you are getting out in steps too. You are acting... that is excellent, you are not frozen.
YOu will reflect on this as your growth experience after some time of shock. Let us make your recover fast.
GOod luck, keep thinking, acting, that means you are healthy and in control
With you buddy all the way.

James said...

I should change my count here to 44.70. I mis counted. As Boris said a 6 year old can trade but not everyone can count. LOL JC

James said...

I can also make a case for 43.30 in an unrigged market. They could take it down first and then up out of all those puts at 44 strike for op-ex....to risky for me Ill watch. Cash is a position. Hit one of those numbers and Ill get interested again. Best JC

kindspirited said...

I do not wish to beat this to death, but I feel my learning the hard way could help others. I (1)acted on news of serious economic slowing, which the pros would use to their advantage, knowing people would short into (also capitalizing on the October effect added to negative housing,consumer sentiment, inverted yield curve, etc) (2) risking too much trading capital
(3) trying to win back a big loss. All serious learning experiences. I will never again add to a loosing trade, risk too much on a single trading idea, and will use stops more effectively. thank you friends.

boris said...

Dear Kindspirited,
You are speaking like a person that will succeed in the future. I wish to tell all young traders that apart from actually experiencing this trade, this is the best real time real person real loss real "beg holding" trade you will see in your life and I hope that Kindspirited, being superKindspirited, shared with you the knowledge that will make you free in your trading life.
It is amazing that this is going on as DXB asked a question of great importance about information. Please, Please, Please understand most of information is misinformation by interested parties. We all got to learn, but if you just do not even consider information, unless it is 90% trusted/verified by you, you are long way into being a good trader.

lessons:
1) do not overtrade
2) do not put large positions
3) know info source or ignore it
4) learn without end
5) come here, let's learn together

Good Trading, GOod Weekend
Thanks everybody. Not deprating yet, but this was the most educational week we have had.

James said...

Congatulations Boris I think your blog is coming together well and will do much good. I also think Kindspirited has had their mental trading capital make a hard turn north with a lesson well learned. I wish them all the success possible. Sincerely JC

boris said...

Yes Dear James,
I thank you for helping me when I got going, and all others. So many have come and contributed ideas, questions. Thanks all. And please do not hesitate to come ask us. The only stupid question is the one that has not been asked. I had so many of those in life. How do yo think I got to know anything...(: :). God bless all and
DO not forget .

"DO not fear, Boris and Company is here"
Good Trading